DFS NFL Weekly Preview: Week 1

Published: Sep 09, 2016

I don’t know about all of you guys but I don’t really like doing anything unless I know all of the information first. The Wife says we are going shopping. What are we buying? What store(s) are we going to? Will there be TV’s in said store? Is there a food component to this trek? Can I just wait in the car?

So it stands to reason that I have never been a real big fan of Thursday night DFS NFL. Sure, I love having a game early in the week in order to satisfy my craving for football but that doesn’t mean that I want to put any of my money at risk because of it. There simply isn’t enough information available by the start of the Thursday night NFL game to adequately generate consistently winning lineups. Considering the official NFL injury reports don’t come out for 24 hours later and we are still nearly 72 hours away from the majority of games being played, this shouldn’t be a surprise.

The best way to enjoy Thursday night DFS NFL is to play in the Monday-Thursday contests that are featured on most sites. These are loose, fun and scratch that DFS itch while not placing you or your money in an unfair situation.

Now sure, if you are playing on DraftKings you have the advantage of late swap so that you can rearrange your lineups based on the final injury and playing time decisions that come up before the bulk of games on Sunday. But for the other sites, you are stuck with whatever you thought was best on Thursday evening.

Now that I’ve dumped all over the Thursday slate of games, I’ll explain what this writeup is all about. I realize that just because I don’t like playing Thursday slates doesn’t mean that you guys do. Some of you may have made a killing in Thursday contests in the past or maybe that just suits your playing style better. Whatever the case, I didn’t want to leave you hanging so I figured out a way to use this space to help us all out.

Each week I will be providing a general outline of the week in the NFL and in DFS. I’ll break down certain matchups, discuss the injuries that could impact our decisions and give you the Thursday night players that I would be targeting in these contests. Consider this your foreplay of the DFS NFL week.

VEGAS SAYS

LINE	AWAY	VS	HOME	LINE	TOTAL
-3	Carolina	At	Denver		41.5
-4.5	Green Bay	At	Jacksonville		48
	Buffalo	At	Baltimore	-3	44.4
	Chicago	At	Houston	-6	44
	Cleveland	At	Philadelphia	-4	41
	Tampa Bay	At	Atlanta	-3	47.5
-2.5	Minnesota	At	Tennessee		41
-2.5	Cincinnati	At	N.Y. Jets		41.5
	Oakland	At	New Orleans	-1	51
	San Diego	At	Kansas City	-6.5	44.5
	Miami	At	Seattle	-10.5	44
	Detroit	At	Indianapolis	-3.5	50.5
	N.Y. Giants	At	Dallas	Pick	46
	New England	At	Arizona	-6	47
-3	Pittsburgh	At	Washington		50
-2.5	L.A. Rams	At	San Francisco		43.5

I SAYS

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1) – Game Total: 51

The Raiders defense is improved, but the Saints are always locked in at home and have stacked weapons this offseason. The Saints defense will be “better” but only because it cannot be much worse. The Raiders offense will be able to score at will on the Saints and thus this game projects to be a very up and down contest with a heavy amount of points scored both real and fantasy.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – Game Total: 50.5

Another game in which both defenses are lacking. Vegas expects Andrew Luck’s return to be a success and that benefits his receivers such as Donte Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen. Allen especially presents a lot of value as his price is out side of the top ten on all major DFS sites.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-4) – Game Total: 41

The lowest total of all the games this week involves two of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. Both teams play at a relaxed pace and will not push the ball up field much if at all. While there is value on both sides, I think it’s best to avoid this game as much as possible.

(-2.5) Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans – Game Total: 41

Don’t let the game total fool you on this one. These are two of the better rushing teams in the NFL and although the clock will be moving down rapidly, there will be fantasy points here from the RB’s. Adrian Peterson is in play as are both DeMarco Murray and even Derrick Henry. Henry should only be considered a wild GPP play though but one that has quite a bit of upside at that.

THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW

(-3) Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – 41.5

This game is a Super Bowl rematch in name only as both teams have suffered significant losses this offseason. The Panthers lost Josh Normal which opens up an entire side of the field and the Broncos lost three members of their defense and both starting QB’s from a year ago. I’m not going heavy on this game at all but I do believe that the public perception about the Broncos defense allows for some contrarian Cam Newton exposure to be warranted.

I am not endorsing any players in tonight’s game. If I were to play this slate however, I would build a lineup around Cam Newton. He will be barely owned and with an entire offseason to stew about the Super Bowl loss you can bet your backside that Cam is motivated and looking for revenge tonight. The Broncos defense isn’t what it was a year ago either so all things told, Cam would be a nice large field GPP player for the Thursday slate.

The only secondary options I’d look at are C.J. Anderson, Devin Funchess and the Carolina Panthers DST. Siemian is going to be a turnover machine so the Panthers DST isn’t a terrible option tonight.

INJURIES

OUT	QUESTIONABLE	PROBABLE
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens - Knee	Jeff Heuerman, TE, Broncos - Ankle	Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Leg
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - Knee	Will Fuller, WR, Texans - Hamstring	J.J. Watt, DE, Texans - Back
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals - Ankle	Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars - Calf	Andrew Luck, QB, Colts - Shoulder
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans - Hamstring	DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins - Hamstring	Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets - Hip
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys - Back	Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings - Foot	Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots - Shoulder
	Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots - Hamstring	Golden Tate, WR, Lions - Ankle
	Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots - Elbow	Eric Ebron, TE, Lions - Ankle

WEEK 1 OPTIONS

Each week I will give you a quick list of players who I would consider “in play” for the Thursday slate of DFS NFL. For those who are new to the site don’t worry because I’ll have FULL DFS NFL Rankings posted on Friday’s, the official DFS NFL Playbook on Saturday’s and my Optimal DFS NFL Lineups on Sunday’s.

This is just a quick appetizer for those of you who cannot wait for the main course before you start nibbling.

QUARTERBACKS