We all recognize that football is a very physically demanding game. What these players put their bodies through is nothing short of abuse. Take a look at all of the lawsuits that are being filed by former players who are now limited physically due to what the NFL put them through. The average NFL career lasts just 3.5 years and thus the turnover of NFL players is quite high. Even those who have a long career in the NFL have a very limited window of peak production years. It is those players who are at the pinnacle of their production that we target in fantasy football.

Fantasy football has been around long enough that we have seen plenty of trends develop and plenty of them change or die out. One of the most constant elements over the past 20 years in projecting a player’s fantasy value is their age. Granted, the peak age for a player varies depending on what position they play and in some cases in how much college ball they have played as well. There are obviously outliers to this trend but only very few players who ever buck this trend.

Over the past few years I’ve assembled a wealth of information about each position and how their age effects fantasy performance. I started playing fantasy football back in 1989 but it is quite difficult to acquire the data from 1989-1995 so I have just taken the numbers from 1995 onward for the purposes of this study.

Let’s take a look at how a players age effect their fantasy positon:

QUARTERBACKS

Quarterbacks have the largest peak production years of any position in football other than punter, placekicker and long snapper. Young QB’s (Age 22-24) however, do not perform very well whatsoever. As you seen in the chart below, QB’s between 22 and 24 years of age average between 8 and 14 fantasy points per game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But something seems to happen as a QB hits age 25 in that every major statistic rises sharply. The numbers increase even more when you filter out those who have been a full time starter for two or more seasons entering his age 25 season.

Two years ago we identified as Andrew Luck as the player to watch out for as he had just turned 25 and was entering his third year in the NFL. He went on to be the second best fantasy QB that season finishing only four points behind Aaron Rodgers. Last year we pointed out that the two QB’s who fit our criteria were Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Both of these players went on to have their best fantasy season to date. In full disclosure we had also mentioned that Robert Griffin III and Geno Smith could have fit the criteria if only they had held onto their respective starting jobs the season before.

In analyzing the age factors over the past 21 seasons we have come to the conclusion that QB’s are at the peak of their fantasy performance between the ages of 25 and 30. The great thing about QB’s as opposed to other positions is that they remain productive well into their late thirties, which is absolutely unheard of at other positions. In fact these number fell off even more sharply just three years ago before players like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees maintained their production well into their late thirties. But it’s important to note the sudden drop off of Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck last season because when a QB loses it, the drop off is significant.

This season several QB’s once again fit the criteria including past breakout players as Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. The only breakout candidate that fits the criteria is Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr who is beginning his third season as a starting QB and just turned 25 years old. Ryan Tannehill is also a name to watch out for though at 27 and in his fourth year as a starter his breakout should have happened already.

RUNNING BACK

The running back position is without question a young man’s game. I often say that you want to have a RB on your fantasy team before he is institutionalized. What I mean by that is that at the NFL level RB’s are taught to save their bodies, take on less contact and run the play as it is drawn up. Rookie RB’s haven’t learned that yet and thus you can watch them run with reckless abandon in trying to take every single carry to the house. They haven’t yet been trained to go down when they are wrapped up, to go out of bounds to save themselves a hit or to settle for whatever chunks of yardage their blocking provides.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thus it shouldn’t be surprising to learn that NFL RB’s peak years are very early on in their career. By the time an NFL RB hits the age of 30 his body is pretty much shot and his fantasy value follows that trend as well.

Last year the two biggest breakout RB’s were Todd Gurley and David Johnson. Both of these players were in their rookie season and were 20 and 23 years old respectively. This season fantasy owners are drooling over Ezekiel Elliot running behind that great offensive line in Dallas. While he is an obvious target we should also be aware of several rookie RB’s who could win jobs this summer. These RB’s include Jordan Howard (Chicago), Keith Marshall (Redskins), C.J. Prosise (Seahawks), Kenyan Drake (Miami), Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore) and Wendall Smallwood.

WIDE RECEIVERS

There was a popular belief years ago that a starting wide receiver who was entering his third season was destined to breakout. That theory worked out quite a bit back in the late 90’s and early 2000’s but doesn’t hold up as well any more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whether it is their second, third or fourth year the bottom line is that WR’s usually take several years before hitting their stride and a bit longer even to hit their peak. However, this trend is beginning to change as more and more rookie WR’s are being taken high in the draft and thus being given a chance to develop as a starter right away.

It is my belief that this trend also has a lot to do with the short leashes that head coaches and general managers are on these days. Many organizations have very little time to allow a player to develop and instead are forcing them into prominent roles much earlier. Unlike the RB position though, fantasy WR’s can maintain consistent production well into their 30’s.

The development of WR’s ultimately has a lot to do with the trust and chemistry they share with their QB. This used to take several years but again, nobody in the NFL has that kind of time anymore. The historical data shows us that WR’s between the ages of 25-28 usually hit their peak in fantasy production. But when we isolate just the last five seasons, we see a trend of young wideouts breaking out. The recent trend suggests WR’s entering their second or third season at age 22-24 have the biggest leap in fantasy output. Players that fit this criteria include Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins.

TIGHT ENDS

The final spot we will look at is the tight end position. TE’s are difficult to gauge, as they seem to develop on at all different times. Thus we can come to the conclusion that the TE position is very reliant on the offensive scheme. The better ages for TE’s as you can see from the chart below seems to be around age 30. Young TE’s don’t seem to make that big of an impact whereas the few TE’s who actually play deep into their 30’s actually are significant contributors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Instead of just the age factor, its important to understand what a TE’s skill set is and thus how much they will actually be on the field. You see, these days there are a lot of pass catching only TE’s who wind up on the sidelines on early downs or whenever there is help needed along the offensive line.

Players like Kyle Rudolph and Dwayne Allen are talented receivers but also are solid blockers. Thus, when the Minnesota and Indianapolis offensive lines broke down last year these two had to stay in and block more often than not. Both of these players find themselves in greatly improved situations in 2016. Other TE’s to watch out for include Ladarius Green, Coby Fleener and Ben Watson.

I’ve been using age as an indicator for my fantasy football projections and rankings for almost a decade now. Just like any data point there are always outliers and players that buck the trends. But when the numbers pop off the page this emphatically it is vital that we take notice.