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Workload Concerns

By Ivar Anderson

If you have watched or listened to an MLB game recently, you are aware of the emphasis that is put upon any pitcher and the number of pitches they have thrown in a game. While pitch counts and/or inning limits are becoming more prevalent in the amateur levels, so too is the practice of young ballplayers joining several leagues to skirt the protection afforded under the current guidelines. Since October 22, 2013, when Matt Harvey went under the knife, there have been 32 Tommy John surgery (TJS) procedures performed on major league pitchers (the number swells to 92 if we include minor leaguers, with nine of those undergoing the procedure being position players).

Last season, I profiled 26 starting pitchers that had seen a 10 percent increase in the pitches thrown column from 2012 to 2013. Of those 26 pitchers, two ended up needing TJS (Patrick Corbin and Kris Medlen), while six other pitchers from last year’s list went on the DL for significant periods of time (CC Sabathia - knee, Derek Holland - knee, Dillon Gee - strained lat, Doug Fister - strained lat, Joe Kelly - hamstring, and Joe Saunders - ankle). This year the parameters being used to discuss starting pitchers at risk are 120 minimum innings pitched with a 10 percent increase in pitches thrown between 2013 and 2014.

 

Starting Pitcher

2013 Team

2013 Pitches

2014 Team

2014 Pitches

Pitch Increase

Percent Increase

Tyson Ross

SD

1981

SD

3119

1138

57.4

Jake Peavy

BOS/CHW

2367

SF

3632

1265

53.4

Corey Kluber

CLE

2290

CLE

3500

1210

52.8

Brandon McCarthy

ARI

2009

NYY/ARI

3044

1035

51.5

Chris Archer

TB

2103

TB

3160

1057

50.3

John Danks

CHW

2202

CHW

3298

1096

49.8

Jered Weaver

LAA

2396

LAA

3352

956

39.9

Aaron Harang

SEA/NYM

2445

ATL

3394

949

38.8

Tim Hudson

ATL

2006

SF

2784

778

38.8

David Price

TB

2707

DET/TB

3730

1023

37.8

Wei-Yin Chen

BAL

2192

BAL

2977

785

35.8

Tom Koehler

MIA

2256

MIA

2941

685

30.4

Marco Estrada

MIL

1995

MIL

2534

539

27.1

Jason Vargas

LAA

2386

KC

3003

617

25.9

Jason Hammel

BAL

2302

OAK/CHC

2796

494

21.5

 

Anytime you increase your workload by 50 percent from one season to the next, there is a huge level of concern about potential overuse. Ross missed his last starts of the year with a flexor strain. Kluber’s big jump in pitches thrown was partly as a result of his missing time in 2013 with a finger injury. McCarthy has a history of shoulder issues that limited him to 111 and 135 innings in 2012 and 2013.

Archer actually pitched 178.2 innings in 2013 between Triple-A and the majors, so his increase is not nearly as dramatic as his MLB pitch count data suggests. Danks’ increase comes as a result of missing the first two months of 2013 following 2012 shoulder surgery. Of these top six, McCarthy presents the most risk, since he seems to be snake bit when it comes to staying healthy.

 

There are many more starting pitcher workload breakdowns in the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

To read more of this article and 179+ more pages of Fantasy Baseball Bliss, get the  2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide now. Best of all is that you can get the Draft Guide AND the 2015 MLB Assistant G.M. FREE with a $10 deposit to Fantasy Aces.