The following is an excerpt from the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now:

 

Pitching Targets

By Ray Flowers

People ask me all the time, “How did you get so smart about this stuff?” I’m gifted. That’s the answer you usually get from me (ask around). The truth, though, is much deeper than that. (1) I played and coached the game of baseball. (2) I’ve literally studied it since I was five years old. (3) I continue to grow as an analyst (I’m one of the few people in the business who has been covering fantasy sports full-time for 15 years).

I don’t know everything, but I’ll liberally borrow from others that are smarter than me, throw it in the hopper with what I do know and hopefully come up with something that is not only worthy of discussion but something that is understandable and accurate. In what follows, I’ve tried to do something simple for you by laying out the baselines to look for with pitchers. Consider the following hurlers who failed to live up to preseason expectations last year, either because of injury or flat-out poor performance.

Yu Darvish, Jose Fernandez, Cliff Lee, Kris Medlen, Justin Verlander, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Tony Cingrani, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha

Here are a few hurlers who rose from the depths of the late rounds or the waiver-wire to impress mightily in 2014:

Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Garrett Richards, Henderson Alvarez, Tanner Roark, Dallas Keuchel, Phil Hughes, Jason Hammel, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young, Wily Peralta, Alfredo Simon, Josh Collmenter, Edinson Volquez

Pitching is extremely variable and predicting future success or failure is exceedingly difficult when we’re talking about the men who make a living chucking the ball. One of the best ways to address the uncertainty of pitching is to set baselines to give you an idea of which pitchers you should be targeting. There are pitchers that will fall outside of the targets mentioned below that will have success - it happens every year. To be clear, I’m not saying that (A) you should avoid any hurler not on this list or (B) if a pitcher is on the list, he has no chance of failing in 2015. Clearly, both of those statements aren’t completely accurate. I would argue that your odds of finding success in the coming season are enhanced if you follow the recommendations that are laid out in this piece, even if there is admittedly no guarantee.

 

THE STRIKEOUT

Starters: At least a K/9 of 6.50

Relievers: At least a K/9 of 7.75

2014 Major League average: 7.73

The strikeout is a sign of a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters. It’s also one of the main categories in fantasy leagues. The fewer balls that are put in play, the less likely a batter is to get on base - hence the power of the strikeout. Note that in most instances, I’m still rather unlikely to roster a starter with a K/9 mark under 7.00 or a reliever with a mark under 8.00.

 

THE WALK

 

Starters: A BB/9 mark below 3.20

Relievers: A BB/9 mark below 2.90

2014 Major League average: 2.89

I have no time for hurlers who can’t seem to locate their pitches and neither should you. Free passes lead to runs and you want no part of that. When a pitcher cannot locate his pitches, all manner of problems result.

 

To read more of this article and 179+ more pages of Fantasy Baseball Bliss, get the  2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide now. Best of all is that you can get the Draft Guide AND the 2015 MLB Assistant G.M. FREE with a $10 deposit to Fantasy Aces.