The following is an excerpt from the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Guide Powered By Baseball Guys which is on sale now:

By Ray Flowers

Sometimes all these numbers and talk makes your head hurt. It’s OK to admit it. I get it. But I don’t want youbto be scared. I want you to know that numbers are your friend. You don’t have to be an actuary or a mathematicianbbmind you, that would be expecting too much, but I’d at least like you to become comfortable with some measures that might help you to break down players and their performances. That’s why I’ve put together this piece. It’s a quick hitting review of many of the measures that are used in the world of fancy math and baseball. It’s fair to suggest that none of what follows matters much in fantasy baseball, at least not directly, but I believe that being exposed to new ways to break down what a player does on the field is never a bad thing.

Sabermetrics Defined

Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence focusing specifically on statistical information. The term itself is derived from the acronym SABR (Society for American Baseball Research), which comes from the group of baseball historians who were the originators of most of these “fancy math” equations (the term was coined by the most famous sabermatrician, of them all, Bill James).

HITTING

BASE OUT PERCENTAGE (created by Barry F. Codell)

BOP = Bases / Outs

Base Out Percentage takes into account two main pieces of the baseball landscape: outs and bases. If the theory of the game is to score without making outs, then why not have a measure that explains that relationship?

BASES PER PLATE APPEARANCE, or BPA

(TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP) / (AB+BB+HBP+SF)

BPA records how many bases a hitter earns per plate appearance (PA). Notice that this metric focuses on plate appearances and not the more traditionally turned to usage of at-bats. The reason is that we should be concerned with every time a hitter comes to the plate regardless of the outcome of the event, so BPA considers such occurrences as walks and hit-by-pitch, events that are recorded in the PA column but not in the at-bat one.

BATTING AVERAGE ON BALLS IN PLAY, or BABIP

(H-HR / TBF-HR-HBP-K-BB)

BABIP, also referred to as a player’s hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP – it removes home runs from the equation because technically the ball isn’t in the field of play on a home run. The major league average is usually in the .290-.300 range but players establish their own levels so that some hitters consistently come in at the .270 range while others seem to always record a mark in the .330’s etc. The league leaders are usually above .380, a level that is nearly impossible to repeat.

BATTING RUNS (created by Pete Palmer)

[1B(.47)+2B(.78)+3B(1.09)+HR(1.40)+BB(.33)+HBP(.33)+SB(.

22)-CS(.45)-[.25(AB-Hits)]

Batting Runs is the Linear Weights measurement of runs contributed beyond those of the “league average player.” Linear Weights, also called Total Player Wins, is Pete Palmer’s attempt to combine everything on the field into one measure (Bill James attempt is called Win Shares – see below, and most have also hear of WAR by this point, another such attempt). Batting runs is the batting section of the Linear Weights formula (for a full description of the measurement see: Total Baseball, 8th edition, pp.2665-2666, 2674).

EQUIVALENT AVERAGE, EqA (created by Clay Davenport)

[(H+TB+1.5*(BB+HBP +SB)+SH+SF)] / [(AB+BB+HBP+

SH+SF+CS+SB)]

ISOLATED POWER, or ISO (created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth)

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

NET SB

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

POWER SPEED AVERAGE, or PWS (created by Ray Flowers).

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

POWER SPEED NUMBER (created by Bill James)

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

RUNS CREATED, or RC (created by Bill James)

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

 

PITCHING

ADJUSTED ERA, or AERA

(League ERA / Personal ERA)*Park Factor

This is ERA+ (see below) adjusted for the pitcher’s Park Effects (see below). Let’s look at Pedro Martinez’s 1999 season. Martinez had a 2.07 ERA, while the American League ERA was 4.86. The Red Sox Park Factor was 1.02. Therefore, Pedro’s AERA was: (4.86/2.07*1.02) = 2.40. The league average performance in a season is 1.00, so Pedro’s 2.40 mark means he was produced a 1.40 mark according to AERA, or 140 percent better than the average AL pitcher in 1999.

ADJUSTED PITCHING RUNS, or APR

(Innings Pitched divided by 9) x (League ERA – ERA)

A metric which measures how many runs a pitcher prevents from scoring as compared to what a “average” pitcher would have allowed. It is similar to ERA+ (see below).

AVERAGE BASES, or ABA (created by Ray Flowers)

(TBA + BB / IP)

An innovative way to look at a pitchers effectiveness designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP). Instead of using hits and walks, ABA uses total bases allowed and walks. The reason for this is simple. Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base? Does it not stand to reason that the pitcher who allows fewer bases to those who do reach base would have a better chance of limiting the amount of runs that score? Take this example. Two batters hit solo homers in two innings. According to WHIP, that pitcher’s mark is an excellent 1.00. Still, he’s actually allowed two runs leading to an ERA of 9.00, an atrocious number. ABA would put this performance under the microscope more directly to let you know what WHIP does – what type of hits and damage was done with those hits. For more see the article devoted to ABA in this Guide.

CATCHER’s ERA, or CERA

(ER while catcher was behind the plate*9) / IP)

The Earned Run Average of a club’s pitchers with a particular catcher behind the plate. To figure this metric simply multiply the Earned Runs Allowed by pitchers while that specific catcher was behind the plate, multiply that number by nine, and then divide that number by the innings caught.

COMPONENT ERA, or ERC

ERC represents the expected ERA of a pitcher based upon an overall reading of all performance. ERC represents the expected ERA of a pitcher based upon a reading of his entire pitching performance. In essence, ERC is a metric which attempts to establish if a pitcher pitched in “good luck” or “bad luck” by letting you know what his ERA should have been based upon a more complete reading of his production on the hill.

DIPS ERA (created by Voros McCracken)

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

Earned Run Average Plus, or ERA+

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

FIELDING INDEPENDENT PITCHING, or FIP

(For More GET THE GUIDE)

RUNS AGAINST AVERAGE, or RAA

For More GET THE GUIDE)

 

.......

To read more of this article and 199 more pages of Fantasy Baseball Bliss, get the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Powered by Baseball Guys and the great Ray Flowers. 

 

Searching for answer for the 2014 fantasy baseball season? Turn to a trusted source to enlighten you – Fantasy Alarm – and pick up your very own copy of the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide. After reading the 200 pages of information you will be ready to dominate the competition in the coming season on your way to a fantasy baseball championship.




Comments


Leave a Comment

About Jeff Mans

Listen to Jeff Mans on "The Fantasy Alarm Show" on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Sirius 210/XM 87. Monday-Friday 10 PM EST-1 AM EST.

Jeff Mans on Twitter

If U need #FantasyBasketball knowledge dropped into your soul check out the @FantasyAlarm Draft Guide available now! https://t.co/yZLgs7aiiQ

Love listening to @CraigMish Great lead in as always my friend!! Very much appreciated... @SiriusXMFantasy

BREAKING: According to head coach Jim Caldwell, #Lions WR Calvin Johnson unlikely to play in Week 8 ... http://t.co/Klzax2Lk69