I love a five-game slate. To be honest, the five- and six-games slates are my favorite. It gives us just enough of a player pool to ensure we all do not have the same players and it shortens my research time by 50 percent allowing me more time to enjoy the writing process instead of feeling rushed.
So my wife has been laid off from work. This is a trend that is becoming more and more popular here in Pittsfield, Mass. My town, like many other small towns across our great country, is dying a slow, miserable death. Business is leaving, small business is closing, and no one has money to spend here. Of course, being a small business owner myself I can tell you I am also hanging on by a thread. Honestly, I have not been able to take a paycheck out of my business in weeks. The only income my family has to live on right now are my EBay store (I am quite a reputable sports card dealer), FantasyAlarm pay, and DFS winnings. So what does this have to do with your day? Why should you care how broke or not broke I am right now? Here is why.
I cannot afford to lose money. If I was to go belly up due to poor bankroll management and bad decisions I would be done for. I have no means to make another deposit right now. Winning is critical. You see, I am not the DFS writer who writes DFS articles and then does not play. I absolutely hate that. And let me tell you, if you think every DFS writer actually plays DFS every day then you are sadly mistaken. I will not mention names but I only know about five or six guys for a fact that write DFS who also play it on a daily basis. But I do not know everyone.
My financial situation is such that if I was a terrible DFS player I would stop playing. The DFS world is full of players with more money than skill on most occasions. You just do not see it because the average DFS player is not playing in $1,000 GPPs on a nightly basis. Have you noticed on the sites that large dollar GPPs have the same 20 guys sitting there with 10-to-20 entries each when you check to see who is in the contest? So basically you have the same 20-to-30 guys playing each other and passing their money back and forth nightly. Good luck with that. It seems to me the only one that can be making any money in that situation is the sites themselves.
So why am I writing all this? I read a lot of negative comments on our Optimal Lineups message board. I will just say I give kudos to both Mark Kaplan and Ben Scherr for taking on this task. It is the kind of job where the same guy who is telling you he loves you and you are doing a great job one day is calling you a loser the next, telling how he is canceling his subscription. You are not paying with your subscription for just the OL’s. You are paying for news updates, lineups, the position coach, playbook, live chats, and maybe the most important thing…the message board forum.
We have some very knowledgeable players posting lineup tips and on more than one occasion, some good sneaky plays have been thrown out on there. Although I do not always give much input, I do read a lot of the board on most days. So the next time you have zero time for research and just play someone’s lineup and lose, it is on you. But do not think for one minute the lineups given are just thrown out there with zero thought put into them because that is absolutely not true. Take advantage of the full FantasyAlarm site with your subscription because all the people on the message board saying they are cashing in their 50/50’s consistently are all saying that very same thing. All the tools are here so use them.
So with this public service announcement from The Real Jerry Colvin out of the way, I bring you today’s position coach article.
Point Guard
We only have two expensive point guards tonight and without a doubt they are both the top options if you are going to spend up at this position. So with this said I am not using Kyle Lowry or Damian Lillard tonight in my cash game lineup even though they are both fine choices.
I do not see the upside tonight in spending up at this position with some of the other positions being scarce. We have plenty of decent options that can all get you 35 fantasy points tonight.
The Timberwolves are only four-point favorites facing a Lakers team allowing the most fantasy ppg overall in the NBA. It is not often you get to take players from any team facing the Lakers with a line this low. The game also has a decent 202.5 expected point total which is always a bonus along with the late bullet factor.
The first player I inserted into my early cash game lineup was Ricky Rubio. I will not lie, I hate him. He makes me more nervous than riding behind giant car carriers on the highway. The fact remains he is playing good basketball right now averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg in his last five going over the 40 mark versus Memphis on Jan. 23. The Lakers are allowing 23.9 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Why pay $9,000 for a point guard to get 45 fantasy points tonight when you can pay $6,700 and get 38?
The other player I have in my early cash game lineup at the moment is Jordan Clarkson. He is averaging nearly 25 fantasy ppg for the season and put up a real stinker versus the Hornets on Sunday night scoring less than 20 fantasy points which I am hoping draws some people off of him on this smaller slate. I say he has a nice bounce back game tonight facing a Minnesota team allowing 23.2 ppg and the 23rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Nothing excites me more in DFS than having my two point guards both in the late game.
I am staying on the Marcus Smart train tonight in GPP. For a player coming off the bench he is putting up some very fantasy worthy numbers. In fact, he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last five games. Brad Stevens seems to like him and I see no reason why that does not continue tonight. This game also has the closest line (NYK -2.5) and highest expected point total of the evening at 206.5. The Knicks are allowing 21.4 ppg to point guards on the season and as long as Smart plays the minutes this will not be a stupid move.
I honestly think one of the better sneaky plays tonight could be Michael Carter-Williams. I am absolutely kicking myself in the ass for not playing him last night as he put up over 40 fantasy points versus the Kings. I made some last minute moves last night that ended a nice three night winning streak and pulling out MCW was one of them. I fully plan on having some exposure to him tonight facing a Trail Blazers team allowing 21.8 ppg and the 25th most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards. MCW has two 40 point fantasy games in the last 10 and I smell a back-to-back.
With Tyler Johnson gone Goran Dragic, who I find also scares the crap out of me in cash games, should benefit from some extra minutes. As we know, extra minutes in DFS means extra fantasy points. The upside here is around 30 fantasy points in this play as long as he does not get “lost” in the offense as sometimes is his case. The Rockets are allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and his price is right around where it should be on FanDuel at $5,400. He will be a low owned player tonight and should only be used in GPP play.
FanDuel | Draft Kings | |||||||||||||||
Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | DVP | $ | PTS | DVP |
Ricky Rubio | MIN | LAL | 30.19 | 0.65 | 4.35 | 8.63 | 2.23 | 0.07 | 2.28 | 9.42 | $6,700 | 33.18 | 56.04 | $6,500 | 31.59 | 56 |
Michael Carter-Williams | MIL | POR | 30.84 | 0.29 | 5.02 | 5.64 | 1.58 | 0.69 | 2.87 | 11.76 | $6,200 | 29.92 | 48.56 | $6,400 | 29.74 | 46.76 |
Marcus Smart | BOS | NYK | 27.18 | 1.07 | 4.32 | 3.07 | 1.79 | 0.36 | 1.21 | 9.82 | $5,700 | 24.79 | 48.4 | $5,400 | 24.05 | 46.86 |
Jordan Clarkson | LAL | MIN | 32.06 | 1.02 | 3.83 | 2.46 | 1.08 | 0.15 | 1.83 | 15.15 | $5,500 | 26.35 | 47.87 | $5,500 | 25.68 | 47.76 |
Goran Dragic | MIA | HOU | 32.23 | 0.9 | 3.21 | 5.08 | 1 | 0.23 | 2.49 | 12.18 | $5,400 | 25 | 51.36 | $5,500 | 25.47 | 52.19 |
Shooting Guard
The benefit of going cheaper at the point guard position is the ability to spend up elsewhere. You need to look at each slate and evaluate where you can save and where you should spend on a day-to-day basis. This is one of the most critical things in lineup construction. Tonight at SG I see a bunch of cheap and mid-priced guys who can all get you 25 fantasy points and a lot guys are going to settle for this spending up on point guards. I see it like this, Lillard and Lowry combine for 80 fantasy points tonight while Clarkson and Rubio combine for 65. Then the average DFS player spends to get 50 fantasy points at SG with the mid-priced players while I am hoping to get 80 out of the SG spending up. If all works well, I will end up with 145 fantasy points out of the four slots where as my competition will end up with 130 and we all have about the same budget left to move forward with. This is all my theory, though. Not fact.
DeMar DeRozan is the first guy I am spending up on tonight. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in eight of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark on three occasions. The Suns are allowing 21.9 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season which is a matchup you have to love with DeRozan’s talent. I am all in and say he gets you 40 fantasy points tonight. Just keep in mind with this play that Toronto is 9.5-point favorites so we do have somewhat of a blowout risk although I am not concerned about it too much.
The player I have paired with DeRozan tonight right now is Dwyane Wade. Although Wade is no “Spring Chicken” he is still a force when he takes the court. He is averaging well over 40 fantasy ppg in his last four games and tonight facing a Rockets team allowing 21.8 ppg and the 22nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards he should have no problem keeping up this trend.
If you disagree with my theory and want to go a little cheaper than Andrew Wiggins is a fine play tonight. As always with the Lakers you have a favorable matchup as they are allowing 22.7 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. Wiggins has the ability to snag you 35 fantasy points while risking on a bad night getting around 25 out of him. He has one stinker versus the Jazz on Jan. 29 but outside of that he is more than consistent and worth every penny of his $6,300 price tag on FanDuel.
If you want to save even more but still gain some exposure to that horrible Lakers defense then take a look at Zach LaVine who is playing lights out basketball off the bench. He is averaging just over 30 fantasy ppg in his last four playing close to 30 minutes per game. He benefits from the same great matchup and has a low $4,700 salary on FanDuel. I will have exposure to him myself tonight.
With all the same type options at the shooting guard position I believe a great GPP play tonight is Arron Afflalo. In his last game he got shut down by a tough Warriors defense that defends the SG extremely well. Prior to this he had scored over 20 fantasy ppg in six out of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark versus a terrible Sixers team. This matchup on paper is not great with the Celtics allowing the 11th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but on the positive side they are surrendering 21.5 ppg on the season as well. I expect him to be low owned tonight and depending on how sneaky I feel will be using either him or LaVine in my GPP lineup.
FanDuel | Draft Kings | |||||||||||||||
Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | DVP | $ | PTS | DVP |
DeMar DeRozan | TOR | PHX | 36.25 | 0.58 | 4.35 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 0.33 | 2.29 | 23.25 | $8,200 | 42.01 | 51.58 | $8,100 | 36.7 | 51.07 |
Dwyane Wade | MIA | HOU | 30.27 | 0.16 | 4.09 | 4.76 | 1.02 | 0.56 | 2.64 | 18.73 | $7,900 | 35.37 | 51.36 | $7,300 | 32.89 | 52.19 |
Andrew Wiggins | MIN | LAL | 35.06 | 0.56 | 3.79 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 2.19 | 20.35 | $6,300 | 33.55 | 56.04 | $6,300 | 29.74 | 56 |
Arron Afflalo | NYK | BOS | 33.31 | 1.33 | 3.55 | 1.9 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 1 | 13.95 | $4,900 | 22.78 | 44.38 | $4,900 | 22.46 | 42.99 |
Zach LaVine | MIN | LAL | 23.51 | 1.02 | 3 | 3.12 | 0.65 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 12.69 | $4,700 | 22.67 | 56.04 | $5,300 | 22.2 | 56 |
Small Forward
Tonight is the night I finally am going to 100 percent use Carmelo Anthony. With little in the way of big guns at the small forward position tonight I see no way you take the risk in cash games that Melo puts up 45 fantasy points tonight and you do not have him. This goes back to that whole spending up at scarce positions theory I employ. The Celtics are allowing the 20.5 ppg and the 20th most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and Anthony has scored 40 fantasy ppg or more in two straight including a game versus the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. I see no way it does not become a three-peat.
Either Luol Deng or Justise Winslow are great plays tonight. The Rockets are allowing 21.1 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season so the matchup is just around where I like it.
Deng has a little higher price tag at $4,800 on FanDuel which is a great price for a player who has scored over 80 fantasy points in his last three games combined while Winslow off the bench has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in five of his last six games for the lower price of $4,200 on FanDuel. I prefer Deng more for cash games and Winslow more for GPP.
Evan Turner is becoming hard not to play lately. In six of his last seven games he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg hitting 30 once versus the Magic on Jan. 29. The matchup is not great with the Knicks allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to the three but Turner's play as of late is way too good to ignore and he does not always come off the bench in the three. He is a great GPP play tonight to gain some extra exposure to the highest expected point total of the evening and after his sub-20 fantasy point performance in his last game some DFS players might be shying away.
FanDuel | Draft Kings | |||||||||||||||
Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | DVP | $ | PTS | DVP |
Carmelo Anthony | NYK | BOS | 34.57 | 1.34 | 7.59 | 4.07 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 2.48 | 21.3 | $9,000 | 41.76 | 44.38 | $8,400 | 39.23 | 42.99 |
Evan Turner | BOS | NYK | 26.9 | 0.18 | 4.41 | 4.14 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 2.14 | 9.47 | $5,200 | 22.85 | 48.4 | $4,800 | 22.62 | 46.86 |
Luol Deng | MIA | HOU | 31.29 | 1.24 | 4.66 | 1.56 | 0.93 | 0.37 | 0.93 | 10.24 | $4,800 | 21.37 | 51.36 | $4,800 | 21.15 | 52.19 |
Justise Winslow | MIA | HOU | 27.62 | 0.49 | 4.87 | 1.36 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 1.36 | 5.76 | $4,200 | 15.27 | 51.36 | $4,400 | 15.57 | 52.19 |
Power Forward
Chris Bosh is facing a Rockets team allowing 23.4 ppg (highest in NBA) and the most fantasy ppg as well to power forwards on the season. In his last 10 games Bosh has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg seven times. He has 40 fantasy point upside and if you are going to spend up at PF tonight this is where you do it. I might move off Wade at SG to upgrade to Bosh depending on what happens later in the day.
One of the two players I currently have sitting in my early cash game lineup is Kristaps Porzingis. Snap, Crackle, Pop, and their Keebler enemies all agree this 7-foot monster is a top play on this small slate. The elven master has up and down performances but most nights you can get over 25 fantasy points out of him which I certainly hope he tops tonight. The Celtics are allowing 21.6 ppg and the 27th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and in his last matchup versus my Celts he scored 21 points with nine rebounds for a decent night.
Amar’e Stoudemire is starting at center tonight for Miami even though FanDuel has him at PF. His price is low at $4,200 facing a Houston team allowing 20.1 ppg and the 20th most fantasy ppg to centers. Stoudemire is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in his last three and if you can get that value tonight again you did pretty damn good.
I am loving me some Jabari Parker tonight. He continues to get it done for the low price of $5,200 on FanDuel and he is averaging well over 20 fantasy ppg in his last six. The Trail Blazers are allowing 20.4 ppg and the 22nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Parker should be a nice under-the-radar play tonight.
Amir Johnson is a nice GPP play tonight. The Knicks are allowing 21.6 ppg to the power forward position but very stingy fantasy point-wise allowing the 10th fewest. Johnson is one of my favorite players to watch on the Celtics and as long as he gets the minutes you have huge upside here. It is hard to pinpoint how Brad Stevens will play things tonight but you could be looking at anywhere from 10-to-40 fantasy points which is never good for cash games.
FanDuel | Draft Kings | |||||||||||||||
Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | DVP | $ | PTS | DVP |
Chris Bosh | MIA | HOU | 33.63 | 1.6 | 7.56 | 2.5 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 1.42 | 19.21 | $7,600 | 37.51 | 51.36 | $7,700 | 35.34 | 52.19 |
Kristaps Porzingis | NYK | BOS | 27.98 | 1.1 | 7.71 | 1.24 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.69 | 13.86 | $6,700 | 31.39 | 44.38 | $7,000 | 30.46 | 42.99 |
Amir Johnson | BOS | NYK | 23.93 | 0.2 | 6.54 | 1.78 | 0.7 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 7.89 | $5,200 | 21.85 | 48.4 | $5,100 | 21.95 | 46.86 |
Jabari Parker | MIL | POR | 28.45 | 4.73 | 1.41 | 0.8 | 0.43 | 1.09 | 11.52 | $5,200 | 22.56 | 48.56 | $5,300 | 21.45 | 46.76 | |
Amar'e Stoudemire | MIA | HOU | 13.5 | 3.85 | 0.6 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.9 | 5.2 | $4,200 | 12.82 | 51.36 | $4,400 | 12.47 | 52.19 |
Center
Not a lot of good options at center tonight.
Gorgui Dieng has scored 110.3 fantasy points in his last three games combined. Minnesota has been starting Dieng as of late and tonight is facing a Lakers team allowing 21.5 ppg and the 28th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. Absolutely the best play at the position.
If you are unsure of Dieng then spend up for Karl-Anthony Towns. His price is high but he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four straight playing in the four. The Lakers are allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season and if I could play them both on FanDuel I would. On other sites I certainly will.
Like I said not much I like at the center position tonight. If I had to move off of either of the two players above I would use Greg Monroe. He scored 24 points with 12 rebounds the last time he faced Portland which is always a nice stat. The Trail Blazers are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 19th most fantasy ppg on the season to centers and Monroe should easily put up over 30 fantasy points tonight a number he has reached eight times in the last 10 games eclipsing the 40 fantasy point mark twice.
Good luck tonight.
FanDuel | Draft Kings | |||||||||||||||
Player | Tm | Opp | M/G | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | $ | PTS | DVP | $ | PTS | DVP |
Karl-Anthony Towns | MIN | LAL | 29.76 | 0.33 | 9.9 | 1.45 | 0.69 | 1.8 | 2.16 | 16.55 | $8,600 | 35.89 | 56.04 | $7,800 | 35.16 | 56 |
Greg Monroe | MIL | POR | 30.4 | 9.69 | 2.31 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 1.73 | 16.58 | $7,900 | 36.74 | 48.56 | $7,000 | 34.92 | 46.76 | |
Gorgui Dieng | MIN | LAL | 24.47 | 0.02 | 6.73 | 1.33 | 1.14 | 1 | 1.86 | 8.67 | $5,500 | 23.3 | 56.04 | $5,400 | 22.45 | 56 |