2015 Draft Guide Sampler: Strategy: Wait on Quarterbacks
Published: Sep 01, 2015
There are many strategies that fantasy owners use when it comes to drafting a team but one of the more debated strategies comes at the quarterback position. Often there are a few elite QBs that set themselves apart from the rest while the second tier group will be more than serviceable but lack that every week punch that the top guys provide. In the 2015 NFL Draft Guide Mark Kaplan tells you why it is best to wait on drafting your quarterback.
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Draft Guide Sampler: Strategy: Wait on Quarterbacks
By Mark Kaplan
Want to have the best chance to win your fantasy football league? Then do the smart thing by waiting on a quarterback in your draft. It amazes me the difference between high stakes public leagues and “industry insider” leagues (I like the phrase “industry insiders” instead of experts) compared to your average Joe friendly league. By difference, I mean that in those high stake/industry leagues, top-tier quarterbacks last forever in drafts, compared to the friendly league, where quarterbacks seem to fly off the board in the early rounds. That is because smart fantasy players know that drafting a quarterback in the early rounds or paying up for one in an auction league is one of the worst ways to build a winning fantasy team, but why is that?
First off, scoring for your league doesn’t matter at all. Whether a passing touchdown is four points or six points, or bonuses are granted for 300-plus yards, it is all relative. Quarterbacks are going to outscore every other position, but having an elite QB doesn’t give you that big of an advantage. However, the one thing that does make a difference is that running quarterbacks have a little more value in leagues where passing touchdowns are four points instead of six points. They have a little less value in leagues where a passing touchdown is six points because guys like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton throw fewer touchdowns than their counterparts.
Most fantasy football analysts say that rostering two quarterbacks is wasting a bench spot. However, I prefer two quarterbacks on my roster because it allows me play the best matchup, have a backup plan in case the better QB gets injured and prepare for bye weeks. Also, since I’ve built up depth in the earlier rounds of the draft, having two quarterbacks is not going to waste a roster spot because I already have plenty of depth at the other positions.
No one would put classify a guy like Ben Roethlisberger as an elite QB, but he had only two less 300-plus passing games than Andrew Luck. Guys like Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers can put up similar fantasy points as Andrew Luck on any given Sunday. Ryan and Eli Manning finished with more passing yards last season than Aaron Rodgers. I’ll let that sink in for second.
While Andrew Luck did have eight games with three or more total touchdowns, guys like Philip Rivers and Tony Romo were right behind him. As a matter of fact, Romo was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy during the second half of the season. Luck was definitely one of the most consistent quarterbacks, but he isn’t necessarily the reason why people won fantasy weeks. Peyton Manning struggled during the fantasy playoffs last season, as he averaged 239 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Weeks 14-16. That is far from elite. If you had Peyton Manning during those weeks, it was unlikely you advanced in your playoff matchups.
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