The folks over at the NFBC are already doing drafts, and with that we have some early ADP data to peruse. Some thoughts on that data.
Mike Trout at #1 makes sense to me. His ADP is 1.07.
Jose Altuve is getting his just due after another stupendous season, the best of his career, with a low pick of seventh overall in the early going (4.36).
Nolan Arenado hasn’t gone below 8th overall and has gone as high as fourth.
Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado and Kris Bryant, all third sackers, have ADP’s inside the top-11 overall.
Trea Turner has an ADP of 12.29 even though he has 100 games of big league experience. That’s a wee bit steep for me. Here is some audio of me chatting about Turner on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.
Clayton Kershaw (5.57) and Mx Scherzer (10.29) are the top-2 arms followed by Madison Bumgarner (15.36). I remember when I had MadBum ranked second last year and everyone thought I was crazy.
Carlos Correa didn’t live up to expectations last season with a .274-20-96-76-13 line. How high were those expectations by the way? Pretty damn high when a guy in his first full season puts up those numbers and folks are disappointed. His ADP this year is 16.36, just ahead of the 18.07 of Corey Seager.
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Starling Marte has an ADP of 25.71. Makes sense to me after a season with a .311 average, .362 OBP and 47 steals. Astutely, a follower asked me on Twitter if I thought he was “injury prone?” I said no. Fair question though considering he’s appeared in 140 games just one time in four full seasons. The back was a big issue last season, and that is a slight concern heading into this season.
George Springer has a 32.86 ADP. No youngster at 27 years of age, that ranking is pretty aggressive for a fella who has a .258 career batting average with just 30 steals in three seasons, ain’t it? I like him as well, but that cost...
A.J. Pollock appeared in 12 games last season after his dynamic, difference making 2015 effort (.315-20-76-111-39). Folks are still very bullish on him this season (36.21).
Giancarlo Stanton has his lowest ADP in years (39.93). I’m still not taking him at that cost. See the Most Overrated Player in Fantasy Baseball for my thought process on why that is still way too aggressive. Stanton has never hit 40 homers and has one season of 100 RBI yet his ADP is ahead of Nelson Cruz who has hit 40 homers three consecutive seasons with 100 RBI two of the last three years (93 in 2015). Cruz has an ADP of 43.71.
Gary Sanchez has an ADP of 47.29 based on a 40.0 HR/FB ratio. Good luck sustaining that Gary.
Stephen Strasburg... 55.64. Keep riding that dream wave folks.
Jose Abreu has an ADP of 63.64. That’s pretty reasonable for a guy who has averaged 30 homers and 103 RBI while batting .299 in three big league seasons.
Andrew McCutchen (71.64) has a lot to prove after a .256-24-79-81-6 season. People are willing to take a shot on teammate Gregory Polanco (66.21), fresh off a nearly 20/20 season (22/17), a bit earlier.
Justin Upton (82.14) is coming off the board well after Kyle Schwarber (70.93). I don’t quite get that one.
Evan Gattis has oodles of power, and catcher eligibility, but I don’t get his 90.36 mark, do you?
Ken Giles is coming off the board at pick 101.14. He had an up and down 2016 but did you notice that he had 102 strikeouts in 65.2 inning? That’s 189 strikeouts his last 135.2 innings by the way. Last season Rick Porcello had 189 strikeouts. It took the Boston righty 223 innings to reach that mark.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).