From The Fantasy Oracle NBA $250K Live Final Qualifier 

2014 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Adam Lind

Is Adam Lind anything more than a late round add for the homers he hits when he's playing well?

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Adam Lind is one interesting cat. At one point some thought he might become a yearly all-star (he hit .305 with 35 homers and 114 RBIs in 2009). At another point it appeared like he might end up being traded by the Jays for complete ineffectiveness (he had a .712 OPS just a year later in 2010 and in 2012 he was banished to the minors for 32 games). Last season Lind offered a bit of a rebirth with his best season in four years. Where does that leave his outlook for 2014. Let The Oracle lead you to the answer. A quick history lesson.

2008: He hit .282 as a rookie
2009: He had the best season of his career going .305-35-114
2010: He slumped to .237-13-72
2011: Moderate rebound to .251-26-87
2012: Banished to minors and in 93 MLB games went .255-11-45
2103: All of a sudden the light was on again (.288-23-67)

The first point should be obvious. Lind has had one impact season in his career.

The second point should also be obvious. Lind has displayed no year to year consistency whatsoever. In fact, he's done something that's nearly impossible to do, even if it makes no sense. Since he broke out in 2009 check out his yearly homer and RBI totals.

2009: 35-114
2010: 23-72
2011: 26-87
2012: 11-47
2013: 23-67

Every other year he's been better/worse than the year before in both the homer and runs batted in columns. Can't explain it. It just is. Don't be the guy that thinks he's found some pattern with Lind that says he will be worse in 2014 either. There's no logical argument to support that position even though the five year trend seems to suggest a pattern.

When we talk Lind we don't think batting average. I've reference his .305 season a couple of times, but that's the only time he's appeared in more than 20 games in a season and has hit .290. In fact, he's a career .269 hitter and his batting average the past four years is even worse at .257. So why the success in the category a couple of times? Look no further than his BABIP column. The two years that he hit .305 and .288, numbers out of the norm for him, were the two best BABIP mark of his career (.323 and .324). Don't expect him to offer a number that will help your squad in the batting average category.

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The power? Lind can provide something there but it's pretty moderate stuff. He has two seasons of 25 homers but only one of 30. Per 145 games he's averaged 24 homers a year. He's actually pretty solid in the old HR/F category – 15.5 percent for his career – but the issue is that his fly ball rate of 36 percent is league average. Given his overall game it would be better if he lifted the ball more (he owns a 1.21 GB/FB ratio, about a tenth above the big league average).  

Let's look at those last two categories – batting average and homers – through the prism of splits. When we do so we see the true picture of what Lind brings to the table. Here is his slash line for the 857 big league games he has appeared.

vs. lefties: .219/.281/.342 with a HR every 37.9 ABs
vs. righties: .286/.343/.508 with a HR every 19.5 ABs

Lind is a night and day performer based upon who is on the bump. Looking at those numbers his outlook should be pretty clear. When a lefty is on the hill Lind should be on the bench or he will be a shell of who he is against right-handed pitching. This makes Lind a hard player to trust if you set your lineup once a week. If you change that sucker daily you can work around Lind's deficiencies. Bottom line with Lind is that he should be on your bench when the Jays are facing a lefty. He just cannot hit them.

A flawed player, Lind has terrible righty/lefty splits. He's stolen all of six bags in his career. He's a mere .269 career hitter. He's also only had one season of real note, and that was back in 2009. My goodness, did you know that Lind has scored 57, 56, 28 and 67 times the past four seasons? If you want to roster Lind in the reserve rounds of a mixed league draft I've got no issue with that. If you want to make him someone you lean on heavily in a mixed league resist that urge. No runs + no speed + no batting average + moderate power = no real fantasy value.

The Oracle out.



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