DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 16

Ray Flowers takes a look at the men that will call the plays and try to fill your stocking with joy.

* PA - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense    
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run.
Vegas O/U = Over/Under

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• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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*NOTE: Not all quarterbacks have a writeup below. That doesn't mean that only the below options fit in each category. Check the graph below to see where the others rank.

ELITE OPTIONS

Tom Brady attempted just one pass of 20-yards last week and just four in the 10-19 range against the Broncos. Those numbers will skyrocket this week.

You didn’t bench Drew Brees last week did you? Brees threw for 389/4 against the Cardinals including going 12-for-16 for 204 yards and three scores against the blitz.

Philip Rivers has thrown two scores, or more, in 7-straight games. He continues to be terrorized by pressure, 45.5 percent of his drop backs last week, which is why the turnover count is so high (11 picks in five games). He takes on the Browns who have allowed 31 passing scores, the most in football.

Matt Ryan was pressured just once against the Niners as the o-line crushed the outmanned team from San Francisco. He is surgical when given time (278 yards, two scores on 20 attempts with no pressure against the Niners), and it sounds like Julio Jones should return this week.

SOLID PLAYS

Derek Carr has a jacked up finger and is still taking his snaps out of the shotgun which helped lead to just one sack and two hits last week. Still, the performance has been lacking of late since he jacked up that finger. The last two weeks: one passing score and 330 passing yards. Those are hideous numbers. At least the opponent this week is tasty as the Colts have only eight picks and allow the 6^th most passing yards a week.

Eli Manning hit 7-of-8 last week against the blitz as he avoided making mistakes. He has three picks in five outings and has thrown for at least two scores in 6-of-7 outings. The Eagles have dropped to 15^th in defense according to PFF and Eli blew them up for 257 yards and four scores at the start of November.

Dak Prescott hit 32 of 36 pass in Week 15 for a massive 88.9 completion rate. Alas, he didn’t throw for a score and has three passing touchdowns in four outings (he has two rushing scores in that time). In seven home games, he’s thrown for only eight scores though he’s also rushed for five more.

Ben Roethlisberger has failed to throw for 225 yards in 3/5 games. He’s failed to thrown for more than one touchdown pass in 3/5 games. He’s also tossed 327 yards and 3.4 scores worth of passes in his home games this season as he’s looked like a totally different player from the schlub he’s been on the road.

Jameis Winston has five turnovers in four games and lost his noddle last week when he headbutted Justin Durant. He also imploded against pressure with an 8.8 QB Rating against the Cowboys. The Saints have only picked off seven passes while allowing the second most passing yards per game (271.2).

Colin Kaepernick isn’t playing bad football. He’s also not producing much in the way of fantasy production. Last week, on 23 passing attempts with no pressure, he hit 65 percent of the passes but for a total of just 9.9 yards (4.3 yards per attempt which is pathetic). He’s produced three touchdowns in three games.

Russell Wilson threw for 225 yards and no scores in the earlier matchup. He’s thrown seven picks in three games. He’s been under 250-yards in 4-straight games. The Cardinals allow the 12^th fewest points to signal callers.

Marcus Mariota has a 104.3 QB Rating with a clean pocket this season, but the number drops to 73.2 when under pressure. This week he faces a Jags team that has the 23^rd best pass rush (PFF). Mariota threw for 270/2 in an earlier matchup this season and should put behind two weeks without a touchdown pass.

RISKY PLAYS

Tyrod Taylor is a borderline QB1 every week cause of the legs (he averages 38.9 yards a game the last 28 contests which is akin to at least 80 passing yards in the majority of leagues). Last time out against the Dolphins he ran for 35 yards and a score and he also threw for 221 yards and a score. The ‘Fish allow the 15^th most points a week to signal callers.

Matthew Stafford and the injured finger. The result was struggles under pressure, but a good looking football meaning it wasn’t really a finger issue that held him down to 273 yards and no scores, this a week after he was held to 223/1 against the Bears. The ‘Boys can be passed on: 68.4 completion percentage, 265 yards and just eight picks.

Joe Flacco hit just 3-of-9 passes last week over nine yards. On the 22 dropbacks he had with a clean pocket he provided 3.8 yards per attempt. It was dink-and-dunk-o-rama. On the year he averages just 6.5 YPA which is why he needs the volume (he’s second to Brees in attempts). Flacco threw for 241/1/1 in the first matchup with the Steelers.

Andy Dalton played a relatively poor game last week making a couple of really poor decisions as he tried to force things downfield. The o-line allowed only six pressures in 28 dropbacks, so the struggles were on Dalton. He hopes to have A.J. Green back which would be a welcomed addition for a QB who has failed to hit 185-yards in back-to-back outings.

Matt Barkley completed 74.4 percent of his passes last week hitting on 19-of-21 on throws under 10-yards as he threw for 362 yards. Still, he threw three picks, his third outing in five with at least two, so for all the good there’s enough to concern to turn away from fully committing.

Matt Moore was as good as Ryan Tannehill has been all season last week. He threw for four scores but it was his field stretching talent that was the missing element for this team as he hit 6-of-7 passes for 158 yards on passes in the air for more than 10-yards. It was the Jets though, so let’s no go nuts. Note that Moore has 34 pass attempts since the start of the 2013 season. He’s on the road against the Bills who have allowed more than 220 net passing yards once in five games.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Carson Palmer looked sharp in Week 15. For once, he handled the pressure well with two scores and a 127.8 QB Rating in such situations (the numbers could have been better as his pass catchers dropped three of his passes in that situation). He goes to Seattle to face a team that held him without a score earlier this season. The last five games they have allowed less than 200 net passing yards three times and have been under 240 in all of those games.

Blake Bortles played another poor game in Week 15. Even when not pressured he hit just 10-of-20 passes for 80 yards. He continues to struggle with his accuracy and is often throwing uncatchable passes. Bortles has one positive ranking from PFF in nine outings while posting six danger zone efforts. Just dreadful.

Sam Bradford threw 43 passes last week. Only 11 of them were more than 10-yards downfield. It’s all dink and dunk as his 6.9 yards per attempt is the lowest amongst the 16 signal callers with a 90 QB Rating. The Packers rank 8^th in pass rush according to PFF, so the plan won’t change in Week 16.

Carson Wentz was 2-for-11 on passes over 10-yards in the air for 48 yards and a pick last week. He also had an 8.3 QB Rating when under pressure. He has skills, but he cannot be started if your goal is to win in Week 16. There’s nothing but a blackhole of ineffectiveness here.

Trevor Siemian has thrown for 282 yards in 4/5 games, but after lighting up the Chiefs for 368 yards and three scores a few weeks back he’s tossed just once score in two games. He’s been way more productive on the road with 11 scores and three picks in six games. Still, the Chiefs held Carr to 114 yards and no scores two weeks ago an Mariota to 241 yards and no scores last week.  

Jared Goff hit just two pass last week on the 13 plays he was under pressure. Dial up the heat against him and he simply cannot succeed at the moment. He may not play though as he’s dealing with a concussion.

Alex Smith made a terrible decision last week, something he never does, as he threw an end zone pick. He has four touchdown passes in six games and faces Denver this week. No way, no how do you start Smith.