Sometimes we focus to closely on the here and now. At other times we focus on too small a sample size. In this piece we will avoid both those pitfalls and focus on the last three years of data in major league baseball.
This is by no means full analysis of what has occurred the last three years. However, we will take a look at the 10 basic categories in fantasy baseball. Note, that by looking at three years of data we are effectively removing things like good or bad luck, or at least attempting to. We’re also looking at a large enough sample size that we should feel good about removing a good deal of uncertainty that can happen from season-to-season.
*NOTE: For batting average batters required 1,500 plate appearances to qualify. For pitchers, the ERA and WHIP categories required a minimum of 450-innings pitched.
BATTING AVERAGE
Name | AVG | Name | AVG | |
Jose Altuve | .331 | Melky Cabrera | .290 | |
Miguel Cabrera | .320 | Manny Machado | .288 | |
Joey Votto | .309 | Jonathan Lucroy | .288 | |
Paul Goldschmidt | .307 | Yadier Molina | .288 | |
DJ LeMahieu | .307 | Xander Bogaerts | .287 | |
Buster Posey | .306 | Denard Span | .287 | |
Daniel Murphy | .305 | Ian Kinsler | .286 | |
Adrian Beltre | .304 | Andrew McCutchen | .286 | |
Mookie Betts | .304 | Nelson Cruz | .286 | |
Dee Gordon | .302 | Ben Revere | .286 | |
Mike Trout | .300 | Anthony Rizzo | .285 | |
Lorenzo Cain | .300 | Ryan Braun | .285 | |
Robinson Cano | .299 | Brandon Phillips | .285 | |
J.D. Martinez | .299 | Bryce Harper | .284 | |
Jose Abreu | .299 | David Ortiz | .284 | |
Charlie Blackmon | .299 | Howie Kendrick | .282 | |
Dustin Pedroia | .297 | Nick Markakis | .280 | |
Starling Marte | .296 | Josh Donaldson | .279 | |
Josh Harrison | .296 | Adrian Gonzalez | .279 | |
Christian Yelich | .293 | Eric Hosmer | .278 | |
Yunel Escobar | .293 | Angel Pagan | .278 | |
Victor Martinez | .293 | Yoenis Cespedes | .277 | |
Ender Inciarte | .292 | Jean Segura | .277 | |
Martin Prado | .292 | Anthony Rendon | .276 | |
Freddie Freeman | .290 | Carlos Gonzalez | .276 | |
Adam Eaton | .290 | Starlin Castro | .275 | |
Nolan Arenado | .290 |
Jose Altuve and Miguel Cabrera are in a league of their own.
There are two surprising .300 hitters in Adrian Beltre (.304) and Lorenzo Cain (.300). Beltre the aging star and Cain the oft-injured one.
J.D. Martinez and Jose Abreu aren’t just sluggers.
Dustin Pedroia might be aging, but he’s still extremely productive.
Two Pirates have posted a .296 mark in Starling Marte and Josh Harrison.
Yunel Escobar three points ahead of Nolan Arenado? That’s surprising.
Josh Donaldson is a first round pick in most setups. Still, he’s a sub .280 hitter the last three years.
Yoenis Cespedes has a one point lower mark than Angel Pagan. How surprising is that?
HOME RUNS
Name | HR | Name | HR | |
Nelson Cruz | 127 | Bryce Harper | 79 | |
Edwin Encarnacion | 115 | Evan Longoria | 79 | |
Chris Davis | 111 | Jay Bruce | 77 | |
David Ortiz | 110 | Paul Goldschmidt | 76 | |
Josh Donaldson | 107 | Curtis Granderson | 76 | |
Mike Trout | 106 | Carlos Gonzalez | 76 | |
Todd Frazier | 104 | Robinson Cano | 74 | |
Chris Carter | 102 | Ryan Braun | 74 | |
Nolan Arenado | 101 | Adrian Gonzalez | 73 | |
Albert Pujols | 99 | Andrew McCutchen | 72 | |
Jose Bautista | 97 | Brandon Moss | 72 | |
Anthony Rizzo | 95 | Ryan Howard | 71 | |
Brian Dozier | 93 | Freddie Freeman | 70 | |
Giancarlo Stanton | 91 | Victor Martinez | 70 | |
Jose Abreu | 91 | Adrian Beltre | 69 | |
Khris Davis | 91 | Brian McCann | 69 | |
Yoenis Cespedes | 88 | Mike Napoli | 69 | |
Justin Upton | 86 | Mark Teixeira | 68 | |
Adam Jones | 85 | Pedro Alvarez | 67 | |
Manny Machado | 84 | Kris Bryant | 65 | |
J.D. Martinez | 83 | George Springer | 65 | |
Matt Kemp | 83 | Ian Desmond | 65 | |
Mark Trumbo | 83 | Charlie Blackmon | 65 | |
Kyle Seager | 81 | Joey Votto | 64 | |
Miguel Cabrera | 81 | Lucas Duda | 64 | |
Evan Gattis | 81 | Carlos Beltran | 63 | |
Carlos Santana | 80 |
Nelson Cruz has hit 40 homers in 3-straight seasons.
Only nine men have hit 100 homers. One is retired (David Ortiz).
Sixteen men have averaged 30 homers a season the last three years.
Brian Dozier has more homers than Giancarlo Stanton who cannot stay on the field.
Evan Gattis has the same amount of homers as Miguel Cabrera.
Curtis Granderson has the same number of homers as Paul Goldschmidt.
RUNS BATTED IN
Name | RBI | Name | RBI | |
David Ortiz | 339 | Andrew McCutchen | 258 | |
Edwin Encarnacion | 336 | Carlos Santana | 257 | |
Nolan Arenado | 324 | Ryan Braun | 256 | |
Josh Donaldson | 320 | Eric Hosmer | 255 | |
Albert Pujols | 319 | Victor Martinez | 253 | |
Jose Abreu | 308 | Jay Bruce | 252 | |
Nelson Cruz | 306 | Ian Kinsler | 248 | |
Mike Trout | 301 | Brian Dozier | 247 | |
Matt Kemp | 297 | J.D. Martinez | 246 | |
Adrian Gonzalez | 296 | Chris Carter | 246 | |
Miguel Cabrera | 293 | Giancarlo Stanton | 246 | |
Yoenis Cespedes | 291 | Kendrys Morales | 241 | |
Anthony Rizzo | 288 | Ian Desmond | 239 | |
Jose Bautista | 286 | Khris Davis | 237 | |
Paul Goldschmidt | 274 | Brandon Crawford | 237 | |
Chris Davis | 273 | Melky Cabrera | 236 | |
Justin Upton | 270 | Freddie Freeman | 235 | |
Kyle Seager | 269 | Carlos Gonzalez | 235 | |
Todd Frazier | 267 | Hanley Ramirez | 235 | |
Robinson Cano | 264 | Daniel Murphy | 234 | |
Adrian Beltre | 264 | Mark Trumbo | 233 | |
Buster Posey | 264 | Ryan Howard | 231 | |
Evan Longoria | 262 | Brian McCann | 227 | |
Adam Jones | 261 | Jose Altuve | 221 |
Eight players, seven active, have produced an average of 100 RBI a season the last three years.
Four men were within 10 driven in of joining the 100 RBI a season club.
Andrew McCutchen and Ryan Braun are just a handful of runs batted in ahead of Eric Hosmer.
Everyone hates on Jay Bruce, but he has more RBI the last three years than Giancarlo Stanton.
Shouldn’t Freddie Freeman and Carlos Gonzalez have more RBI? Melky Cabrera has one more RBI than that power hitting duo.
RUNS SCORED
Name | R | Name | R | |
Mike Trout | 342 | Adrian Beltre | 251 | |
Josh Donaldson | 337 | Ian Desmond | 249 | |
Brian Dozier | 317 | Mookie Betts | 248 | |
Ian Kinsler | 311 | Adam Jones | 248 | |
Charlie Blackmon | 286 | DJ LeMahieu | 248 | |
Paul Goldschmidt | 284 | Dexter Fowler | 247 | |
Matt Carpenter | 281 | Matt Kemp | 246 | |
Jose Altuve | 279 | Manny Machado | 245 | |
Anthony Rizzo | 277 | Kyle Seager | 245 | |
Jose Bautista | 277 | Anthony Rendon | 245 | |
Nelson Cruz | 273 | Albert Pujols | 245 | |
Nolan Arenado | 271 | Bryce Harper | 243 | |
Edwin Encarnacion | 268 | Justin Upton | 243 | |
Robinson Cano | 266 | Evan Longoria | 238 | |
Adam Eaton | 265 | Jason Kipnis | 238 | |
Chris Davis | 264 | Christian Yelich | 235 | |
Yoenis Cespedes | 262 | Jose Abreu | 235 | |
Andrew McCutchen | 261 | Ryan Braun | 235 | |
Brett Gardner | 261 | Eric Hosmer | 232 | |
Todd Frazier | 259 | Carlos Santana | 229 | |
Kole Calhoun | 259 | Buster Posey | 228 | |
Xander Bogaerts | 259 | Joey Votto | 228 | |
Curtis Granderson | 259 | Starling Marte | 228 | |
Miguel Cabrera | 257 | Adrian Gonzalez | 228 | |
Freddie Freeman | 257 | Dee Gordon | 227 | |
Ben Zobrist | 253 |
Only four men have averaged 100 runs a season the last three years.
It’s amazing to think that Mike Trout has scored 99 more runs that Bryce Harper, isn’t it?
Is it more surprising that Matt Carpenter has two more runs than Jose Altuve?
Adam Eaton has never broken out, but he’s been remarkably consistent the last two seasons leading to three more runs scored than Yoenis Cespedes.
Brett Gardner has holes in his game. He’s still scored four more runs than Miggy.
STOLEN BASES
Name | SB | Name | SB | |
Billy Hamilton | 171 | Mookie Betts | 54 | |
Dee Gordon | 152 | Jason Heyward | 54 | |
Jose Altuve | 124 | Denard Span | 54 | |
Starling Marte | 107 | Ryan Braun | 51 | |
Rajai Davis | 97 | Brian Dozier | 51 | |
Ben Revere | 94 | Jason Kipnis | 49 | |
Jarrod Dyson | 92 | Todd Frazier | 48 | |
Charlie Blackmon | 88 | Adam Eaton | 47 | |
Jonathan Villar | 86 | Josh Harrison | 47 | |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 80 | Christian Yelich | 46 | |
Jean Segura | 78 | Alexei Ramirez | 46 | |
Elvis Andrus | 76 | Billy Burns | 46 | |
Lorenzo Cain | 70 | Chris Owings | 45 | |
Carlos Gomez | 69 | Jimmy Rollins | 45 | |
Leonys Martin | 69 | Jake Marisnick | 45 | |
Alcides Escobar | 65 | DJ LeMahieu | 44 | |
Jose Reyes | 63 | Dexter Fowler | 44 | |
Paul Goldschmidt | 62 | Kevin Kiermaier | 44 | |
Ian Desmond | 58 | Angel Pagan | 43 | |
Gregory Polanco | 58 | Kolten Wong | 42 | |
Mike Trout | 57 | Jose Ramirez | 42 | |
Brett Gardner | 57 | Cameron Maybin | 42 | |
Eduardo Nunez | 57 | Michael Bourn | 42 | |
A.J. Pollock | 57 | Odubel Herrera | 41 | |
Melvin Upton Jr. | 56 | Kevin Pillar | 40 | |
Ender Inciarte | 56 | Danny Santana | 40 |
Two men have averaged 50 steals (Billy Hamilton & Dee Gordon)
Only four men have stolen 100 bases (Hamilton, Gordon, Jose Altuve, Starling Marte).
Only three men have averaged 40 steals a season (sorry Starling).
Only seven total players have averaged 30 steals a season the past three years (add in Rajai Davis, Ben Revere and Jarrod Dyson).
Mike Trout has one more steal than Melvin Upton who has two more steals than Mookie Betts, who has three more steals than Ryan Braun, who has three more steals than Todd Frazier. The third sacker, Frazier, has one more theft than Adan Eaton and two more than Christian Yelich.
WINS
Name | Wins | Name | Wins | |
Max Scherzer | 52 | Stephen Strasburg | 40 | |
Madison Bumgarner | 51 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 40 | |
David Price | 50 | Chris Tillman | 40 | |
Jake Arrieta | 50 | Masahiro Tanaka | 39 | |
Clayton Kershaw | 49 | John Lackey | 38 | |
Johnny Cueto | 49 | Yordano Ventura | 38 | |
Zack Greinke | 49 | Cole Hamels | 37 | |
Jon Lester | 46 | Gerrit Cole | 37 | |
Rick Porcello | 46 | Jered Weaver | 37 | |
Corey Kluber | 45 | Justin Verlander | 36 | |
Felix Hernandez | 44 | Jordan Zimmermann | 36 | |
Bartolo Colon | 44 | Edinson Volquez | 36 | |
Collin McHugh | 43 | Adam Wainwright | 35 | |
Chris Sale | 42 | Tanner Roark | 35 | |
J.A. Happ | 42 | Jason Hammel | 35 | |
Dallas Keuchel | 41 | R.A. Dickey | 35 |
Only four men reached the 50-win level.
Six others won at least 45 games.
That means that 10 men have averaged at least 15 victories the last three years.
Bartolo Colon and Colin McHugh have more wins than Chris Sale.
Look at that. Hisashi Iwakuma matches Stephen Strasburg and has three more wins than Cole Hamels.
Jered Weaver has won more win than Justin Verlander.
EARNED RUN AVERAGE
Name | ERA | Name | ERA | |
Clayton Kershaw | 1.89 | Adam Wainwright | 3.31 | |
Jake Arrieta | 2.42 | Stephen Strasburg | 3.36 | |
Jacob deGrom | 2.74 | Danny Duffy | 3.36 | |
Jon Lester | 2.74 | Julio Teheran | 3.37 | |
Zack Greinke | 2.76 | Sonny Gray | 3.51 | |
Johnny Cueto | 2.80 | Chris Archer | 3.52 | |
Madison Bumgarner | 2.88 | Jordan Zimmermann | 3.52 | |
Kyle Hendricks | 2.92 | Marco Estrada | 3.62 | |
Max Scherzer | 2.96 | J.A. Happ | 3.63 | |
Corey Kluber | 3.01 | Scott Kazmir | 3.66 | |
Chris Sale | 3.03 | Justin Verlander | 3.67 | |
Felix Hernandez | 3.05 | Jason Hammel | 3.68 | |
Masahiro Tanaka | 3.12 | Collin McHugh | 3.71 | |
Cole Hamels | 3.15 | Jake Odorizzi | 3.72 | |
Tanner Roark | 3.17 | Rick Porcello | 3.75 | |
Dallas Keuchel | 3.21 | Ervin Santana | 3.75 | |
Carlos Carrasco | 3.22 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 3.76 | |
Carlos Martinez | 3.22 | Francisco Liriano | 3.80 | |
Gerrit Cole | 3.23 | Wei-Yin Chen | 3.81 | |
David Price | 3.25 | Ian Kennedy | 3.84 | |
Jose Quintana | 3.29 | Bartolo Colon | 3.90 | |
John Lackey | 3.29 | Jeff Samardzija | 3.91 | |
Adam Wainwright | 3.31 | Yordano Ventura | 3.91 |
No one is within half a run of Clayton Kershaw which is amazing.
Zack Greinke has a better mark than Madison Bumgarner.
Tanner Roark inches ahead of Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Martinez.
How does Danny Duffy have the same mark as Stephen Strasburg?
Justin Verlander is behind J.A. Happ and Scott Kazmir. Nuff said for all you Verlander lovers.
WHIP
Name | WHIP | Name | WHIP | |
Clayton Kershaw | 0.83 | Danny Duffy | 1.20 | |
Jake Arrieta | 0.97 | Gerrit Cole | 1.21 | |
Max Scherzer | 1.02 | Cole Hamels | 1.21 | |
Chris Sale | 1.03 | Jake Odorizzi | 1.21 | |
Madison Bumgarner | 1.04 | Chris Archer | 1.22 | |
Masahiro Tanaka | 1.04 | Sonny Gray | 1.22 | |
Johnny Cueto | 1.06 | Bartolo Colon | 1.22 | |
Corey Kluber | 1.07 | Jose Quintana | 1.23 | |
Carlos Carrasco | 1.07 | Scott Kazmir | 1.23 | |
Zack Greinke | 1.07 | Mike Leake | 1.24 | |
Kyle Hendricks | 1.07 | Wei-Yin Chen | 1.24 | |
Jon Lester | 1.08 | Collin McHugh | 1.25 | |
Jacob deGrom | 1.10 | J.A. Happ | 1.25 | |
Stephen Strasburg | 1.11 | R.A. Dickey | 1.26 | |
Felix Hernandez | 1.11 | Ervin Santana | 1.27 | |
David Price | 1.12 | Ian Kennedy | 1.27 | |
Marco Estrada | 1.12 | Carlos Martinez | 1.28 | |
Dallas Keuchel | 1.14 | Chris Tillman | 1.30 | |
Julio Teheran | 1.15 | Jered Weaver | 1.30 | |
Hisashi Iwakuma | 1.16 | Colby Lewis | 1.31 | |
Jason Hammel | 1.16 | Francisco Liriano | 1.32 | |
Justin Verlander | 1.17 | Hector Santiago | 1.32 | |
Tanner Roark | 1.17 | Gio Gonzalez | 1.33 | |
John Lackey | 1.18 | Trevor Bauer | 1.33 | |
Adam Wainwright | 1.19 | Shelby Miller | 1.34 | |
Jordan Zimmermann | 1.19 | Yordano Ventura | 1.35 | |
Rick Porcello | 1.19 | Nathan Eovaldi | 1.36 | |
Jeff Samardzija | 1.19 | Edinson Volquez | 1.36 | |
James Shields | 1.36 |
Jake Arrieta really struggled down the stretch last season, see his Player Profile, but boy has he been good the last three years.
Masahiro Tanaka still makes me nervous, like his arm is gonna fly off, but I have to tip my hat to his performance since he games to North America.
Even with his tank job last season, Felix Hernandez has still posted the same WHIP the last three years as Stephen Strasburg.
Dallas Keuchel was still better than Justin Verlander the last three years, even with the horrible effort he tossed out there last season.
Rick Porcello, the AL CY Young winner, has the same mark as Jeff Samardzija whom seemingly everyone dislikes.
Jake Odorizzi better than Chris Archer. Interesting.
STRIKEOUTS
Name | SO | Name | SO | |
Max Scherzer | 812 | James Shields | 531 | |
Corey Kluber | 741 | Justin Verlander | 526 | |
David Price | 724 | Julio Teheran | 524 | |
Chris Sale | 715 | John Lackey | 519 | |
Clayton Kershaw | 712 | Dallas Keuchel | 506 | |
Madison Bumgarner | 704 | Carlos Carrasco | 506 | |
Chris Archer | 658 | Collin McHugh | 505 | |
Jon Lester | 624 | Gio Gonzalez | 502 | |
Johnny Cueto | 616 | Jacob deGrom | 492 | |
Cole Hamels | 613 | Jake Odorizzi | 490 | |
Jake Arrieta | 593 | Trevor Bauer | 481 | |
Stephen Strasburg | 580 | Danny Salazar | 476 | |
Ian Kennedy | 565 | Jason Hammel | 474 | |
Felix Hernandez | 561 | Rick Porcello | 467 | |
Francisco Liriano | 548 | Wade Miley | 467 | |
Zack Greinke | 541 | Yordano Ventura | 459 | |
Jose Quintana | 536 | Scott Kazmir | 453 | |
Jeff Samardzija | 532 |
Ten men have averaged 200 strikeouts the last three years.
Max Scherzer has averaged 271 strikeouts the last three seasons. Corey Kluber who is second on the list has never struck out 271 batters in a season.
Cole Hamels is a really good pitcher. Scherzer has 199 more strikeouts the last three seasons than Hamels.
Jon Lester has 100 more strikeouts than Julio Teheran.
James Shields has more punchouts the last three years than Justin Verlander.
SAVES
Name | SV | Name | SV | |
Mark Melancon | 131 | Mark Melancon | 131 | |
Kenley Jansen | 127 | Steve Cishek | 68 | |
Francisco Rodriguez | 126 | Glen Perkins | 66 | |
Zach Britton | 120 | Koji Uehara | 58 | |
Craig Kimbrel | 117 | Roberto Osuna | 56 | |
David Robertson | 110 | Brad Ziegler | 53 | |
Trevor Rosenthal | 107 | Andrew Miller | 49 | |
Aroldis Chapman | 105 | Luke Gregerson | 49 | |
Jeurys Familia | 99 | Wade Davis | 47 | |
Cody Allen | 90 | Shawn Tolleson | 46 | |
Huston Street | 90 | Drew Storen | 43 | |
Fernando Rodney | 89 | Joakim Soria | 43 | |
Santiago Casilla | 88 | Brad Boxberger | 43 | |
Jonathan Papelbon | 82 | Sam Dyson | 40 | |
Greg Holland | 78 | Jake McGee | 40 | |
Hector Rondon | 77 | Jason Grilli | 40 |
Look at that list. You’re a top-35 save man the last three seasons if you saved 40 games. That’s less than 14 a season even though there were six men who had 40-saves in 2016. The turnover is relatively massive at the position, something you can read more about in Never Draft a Closer Early.
Only eight men produced 100-saves.
Only three more produced 90 saves.
That means the last three years there are only 11 men who have averaged 30-saves a season.
Consistency at the position just isn’t as easy to attain as so many seem to believe.