For a longer version of this article that explains all these measures in more detail, not to mention touching about many, many more measures, give our MLB Sabermetrics Primer a read. That piece explains all the sabermetric measures that you’re likely to come across in your fantasy baseball musings.

In this article we will touch on some sabermetric numbers and show how players performed in each category last season. Maybe we will find a few players that overperformed, or some that underperformed, in 2016. Heck, some of these measures aren’t even really “sabermetric” stuff, their just non-traditional categories you should be aware of. Maybe I should have used a different title. I’ll speak to my editor for next year’s guide.

OK, basically, this is an article to point out guys that over or underperformed in four significant categories. I should have just said that at the start, right?

BATTING AVERAGE ON BALLS IN PLAY, or BABIP
(H-HR / TBF-HR-HBP-K-BB)

BABIP, also referred to as a player's hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is a caveat with BABIP – it removes home runs from the equation because technically the ball isn't in the field of play on a home run. The major-league average is usually in the .290-.300 range year after year, but players establish their own levels so that some hitters consistently come in at the .270 range while others record marks in the .330's range year after year. The league leaders are usually above .380, a level that is nearly impossible to repeat year after year.

 

BABIP

HOF

.360

All-Star

.340

Solid

.320

Average

.300

Below Avg.

.280

Poor

.260

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their BABIP go down in 2017. These hitters are at risk of seeing statistical pull back in the coming season: DJ LeMahieu (.388), J.D. Martinez (.378), Jonathan Villar (.373), J.T. Realmuto (.357), Corey Seager (.355), Jean Segura (.353), Daniel Murphy (.348), Wilson Ramos (.327).

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their BABIP go up in 2017. These players are likely to see a statistical uptick in 2017: Todd Frazier (.236), Joe Panik (.245), Bryce Harper (.264), Jason Heyward (.266), Troy Tulowitzki (.272), Chris Davis (.279).

ISOLATED POWER, or ISO
Slugging % - Batting Average

A sabermetric measure which attempts to describe a hitters overall effectiveness by measuring the players ability to generate extra base hits. Batting average measures all hits without any attention being paid to what type of knock they are. SLG measures all bases earned (including singles). ISO measures only extra base hits while excluding the other hits.

 

ISO

HOF

.250

All-Star

.200

Solid

.170

Average

.130

Below Avg.

.110

Poor

.090

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their Isolated Power go down in 2017. These hitters are at risk of seeing statistical pull back in the coming season: Brian Dozier (.278), Mark Trumbo (.277), Freddie Freeman (.267), Jake Lamb (.260), Daniel Murphy (.249), Brad Miller (.239), Yasmany Tomas (.236), Robinson Cano (.235), Michael Saunders (.224).

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their Isolated Power go up in 2017. These players are likely to see a statistical uptick in 2017: Jason Heyward (.094), Francisco Lindor (.134), Adrian Gonzalez (.150), Jose Abreu (.175).

WEIGHTED ON-BASE AVERAGE , or wOBA

wOBA is based around an older idea created by Pete Palmer called Linear Weights (Linear Weights was the precursor to WAR - an attempt to rank all players, regardless of skill or position played, on the same continuum). Each event on the field is given a value and the individual events are combined to get one measurement. wOBA attempts to quantify the value of hits much the same way that OPS does. It "weights," or weighs, the aspects of the offensive game in a way that is relative to the actual run value of the event (i.e. a homer is worth more than double the value of a single). In this respect wOBA is more accurate than OPS since OPS gives slightly more value for hitting for extra bases than it does for getting on base. wOBA is figured out on the same scale as regular on-base percentage. That means if you understand the value assigned to OBP you will understand how to read wOBA.

 

wOBA

HOF

.400

All-Star

.370

Solid

.340

Average

.320

Below Avg.

.310

Poor

.300

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their wOBA go down in 2017. These hitters are at risk of seeing statistical pull back in the coming season: Daniel Murphy (.408), DJ LeMahieu  (.391), Jean Segura (.371), Brian Dozier (.370), Wilson Ramos (.361), Mark Trumbo (.358), Jonathan Villar (.358).

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their wOBA go up in 2017. These players are likely to see a statistical uptick in 2017: Jason Heyward (.282), Joe Panik (.300), Alex Gordon (.303), Maikel Franco (.311), Corey Dickerson (.319).

WEIGHTED RUNS CREATED PLUS

This is the next level to Runs Created (Bill James), which was an attempt to evaluate a player’s offensive exploits based on runs. Simply, instead of looking at homers, steals or slugging, RC put the player’s offensive performance into just one category – runs created. This measure has been improved upon by wOBA which you just read about. Think of it like this. RC led to wOBA which led to RC+. Another take on Runs Created is wRC+ which measures a player versus the league average and based upon park effects (RC+ does not take into account the league average or park effects). Simply read is it as well with a mark of 100 being league average, a mark of 90 is 10 percent worse than league average and 115 would be an effort that is 15 percent better than average. Here is how to read the marks posted by players.

 

RC+

HOF

160

All-Star

140

Solid

115

Average

100

Below Avg.

80

Poor

75

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their wRC+ go down in 2017. These hitters are at risk of seeing statistical pull back in the coming season: Daniel Murphy (156), Freddie Freeman (152), Wilson Ramos (124), Ian Kinsler (123), Asdrubal Cabrera (119), Michael Saunders (117).

Here is a list of players who are likely to see their wRC+ go up in 2017. These players are likely to see a statistical uptick in 2017: Jason Heyward (72), Alex Gordon (85), Mitch Moreland (87), Maikel Franco (92), Todd Frazier (102), Justin Upton (105), Andrew McCutchen (106).