You know I love to hate. Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster might have “Haterade” on the Fantasy Alarm show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, but I’m also full of hate and scorn. Mostly it’s for dumb people as I sit on my thrown of moral superiority (I’m really a nice guy, despite the arrogant front I throw out there). I’m also a negative fellow. At least that’s what people say to me. In truth, at least in my mind, I’m not negative, I’m merely authentic. If the point of view that folks hold on players is wrong, I have no hesitation to lay out the case against the player. In what follows, I will list a group of players that you need to be very cautious about rostering in 2017 given the cost of the players on draft day.
CATCHER: Wilson Ramos
Ramos is trying to come back from a second ACL surgery on his right knee. Two ACL surgeries is a big-time concern for any player. For a catcher, it should send up a massive skull and crossbones flag of concern. Current expectations suggest that he could miss April, and any kind of setback could cost that return date to fall into May or later. This is point #1. The second point of concern with Ramos is performance based. Ramos had LASIK surgery and that turned him from being a .260 hitter into a guy who hits .307? Really? Not buying it. Here is what I see. (1) Ramos hit .279 in the second half. Ramos had never hit .279 in a season before. (2) His BABIP was .327 last season. The mark is .291 for his career. (3) He had the second best line drive rate of his career at 20.4 percent. His career mark is 18.8. (4) He hit .034 points above his career level last season against lefties (.330) and .040 points above his career level against righties (.301). His average is going to fall in 2017. It’s also risky to predict a repeat in the power department, even if he plays a full slate of games, as Ramos had a 21.4 percent HR/FB ratio last season, four points above his career rate (the mark was under his 17.4 career mark in 2014 and 2015). You hit as many grounder as he does, 54.3 percent last season and for his career, and you’re completely at the mercy of the HR/FB gods.
FIRST BASE: Wil Myers
Last year I was bullish on Myers when few others were, and if you followed that advice you added, for virtually nothing, 28 homers, 28 steals, 94 RBI and 99 runs scored. That’s championship winning stuff. So why the hate this season? Myers is unlikely to repeat the totality of what he did and he’s no longer eligible at two spots (he loses outfield eligibility this season). Never did Myers ever steals 25 bases as a minor leaguer. Not even half of that number actually. Here are his year totals: 2 (2009), 12 (2010), 10 (2011), 6 (2012), 12 (2013), 9 (2014), 7 (2015). Add those numbers all up and Myers stole 56 bases over seven seasons. That’s an average of eight steals a season. How did he steal 28 bases last year? No scout ever predicted he would swipe that many either. It would be surprising if he stole 20 bases in ’17. In fact, I have a hard time expecting him to swipe 15. If the steals pull back then Myers goes from an elite option to just one of the boys at first base. It’s unclear if Myers can sustain his 18.7 percent HR/FB ratio and his 21.4 percent line drive rates that are substantially better than the marks he posted 2013-15 (11.8 and 17.7). Even with all that last season he still hit .259 last season, right on his .257 career mark. Growth is less likely than regression.
SECOND BASE: Rougned Odor
Is he a top-10 option at second? Sure. Is he top-5? I know everyone will say yes, but I’m not 100 percent sold. Here’s why I’m concerned. (1) Odor hit .271 last season and is a .265 career hitter. He never walks, just 59 in three seasons (holy cow), and last year had the worst K-rate of his three seasons (21.4 percent). His 0.21 BB/K rate is pathetic. He had a .297 BABIP last season. It’s .292 for his career. He had a 17.6 percent line drive rate last season and his career mark is 15.9. None of those data points suggests that Odor’s average will improve. (2) After hitting 25 homers in 234 games Odor hit 33 homers in 150 games last season. He hits a good deal of fly balls, 40 percent for his career, but that 17.0 HR/FB ratio is a big-boy number and on the way to doubling the 10.0 percent mark he posted his first two seasons. He’s just 23 years old so perhaps he’s growing into his power, that’s fair, but I still don’t see him being a 30-homer bat. (3) After stealing 10 bases in two seasons he stole 14 bases last season. Given that fact it’s hard to feel confident at all in growth, and even a repeat is a bit of a stretch, especially for a guy who has a pathetic 53.3 percent success rate for his career (24-for-45). He shouldn’t be running at all with a success rate that poor. He will be really good in fantasy, but folks will certainly be drafting him expecting growth. I don’t see it.
THIRD BASE: Hernan Perez
This multi-category player hit 13 homers and stole 34 bases last season in just 123 games. Moreover, he was pretty epic in the second half with a .281-9-37-38-24 line over just 71 games. Hard to envision one aspect of that line being repeated in 2017. His line drive rate, BABIP and hard hit rate are all basically league average numbers (maybe a wee bit, but nothing more, elevated). It seems relatively unlikely he repeats the moderate power given that his Isolated Power mark was just .156 even last season (the league average was .162 showing he didn’t even have league average power last year). I’m not buying the 11.5 percent HR/FB rate he posted. Even last season, with all his success, he didn’t get on base with a worse than league average .302 mark. When you don’t get on base it’s pretty tough to steal bases, is it not? #GeniusStatement Perez could also fall into a super-sub role over holding down an everyday spot in the lineup fairly easily. Caution is warranted.
SHORTSTOP: Trevor Story
You didn’t think I could write an entire Draft Guide and not touch on Mr. Story, did you? I famously predicted he would never hit 25 homer and that it was unlikely he would hit 20 last season. He hit a whopping 27 in just 97 games. I was wrong. Period I will be right in 2017 however (my arrogance is returning). Coming back from a torn and surgically repaired UCL in his left thumb, Story simply isn’t likely to continue his assault on pitchers at a pace of last season. Colorado or not, I find it inconceivable that he will be able to repeat the 23.7 percent HR/FB ratio he posted last season. Only seven men in baseball bettered that mark last season, and of that group only three men posted a 23.7 percent HR/FB ratio in 2016 and 2015 (Khris Davis, Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz). Beyond that, scouts didn’t predict Story to be a 30-homer guy. Secondly the guy hit .272 and I don’t know if he can better that mark, even in Coors. Story hits the ball awfully hard, I get that, but he also swings and misses like a madman. His 31.3 percent K-rate would have been the third worst mark in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Those two men, Chris Davis and Chris Carter, hit .221 and .222. Story strikes out so much that his batting average is in great peril, especially when you consider that his .343 BABIP is likely to regress a bit (ditto the 23.6 line drive rate). We saw that even last season when he hit a mere .260 over his first 81 games. The odds are greatly in favor of his batting average falling under .260, even if he does play for the Rockies. Don’t believe the hype. He will be really good, but he’s not the elite level performer some seem to think he is.
OUTFIELD: Carlos Beltran
This potential HOFamer will not pull a David Ortiz. Turning 40 in April, Beltran has stolen six bases the last four seasons. Though hit .295 last season, he’s a career .281 batter who hit .257 in 2014-15. Logic would suggest, without further analysis, that the average will fall a lot. When you add in that this 5.9 BB-rate last season was his worst since 1998, and that his 0.35 BB/K rate was also his worst since 1998, that point of view should be cemented in your mind. I’m also a bit cautious when I see a 39 year old post a 17.3 percent HR/FB ratio. For any player that age I would be concerned. When that player is 39... when that player has a career mark of 15.1 percent... when that player posted a mark of 13.0 percent from 2009-15 which includes 3-years in a row under that mark from 2013-15. You also have to worry about health as he’s failed to appear in 135 games in two of three seasons. He could be productive, but there’s zero chance Beltran replicates his 2016 effort. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.
OUTFIELD: Tyler Naquin
Naquin had a .866 OPS last season, better than Christian Yelich (.859), Carlo Gonzalez (.855), Mark Trumbo (.850), Starling Marte (.818), Jose Bautista (.817) etc. Did you know that? If you did, and you’re looking hard at it, you better understand that number is going down in 2017. In 339 minor league games he hit 22 homers. He hit 14 last year in 116 games with the Indians. In the minors he had a .417 SLG. Last season with the Indians the mark was .514. Not sustaining either of those is he (homers or SLG). Naquin posted a 1.54 GB/FB ratio, not the number of a power hitter, and there’s no way I can envision that he will be able to hold on to his 22.2 HR/FB ratio. He’s not going to repeat any of that. However, the easiest call for failure with Naquin, easier than anything I’ve already written, is that his .411 BABIP will fall. No player who has ever lived has done that two years in a row. No one posts a mark of .411, doesn’t happen (the league leader last season was D.J. LeMahieu at .388). Add it all up and Naquin won’t hit 20 homers, won’t hit .290, and isn’t likely to steal more than 10 bases. Solid like Kole Calhoun? I can totally buy that. Impressive? Not likely at all.
OUTFIELD: Yoenis Cespedes
Let’s get into some trouble here. A few points that I’ve made before with Cespedes.
1 – In five seasons he’s averaged 141 games played. That’s more than 20 missed games a season on average.
2 – After stealing 16 bases as a rookie he’s, in the following four seasons, failed to steal half as many bases even one time. That’s right, he’s under eight steals in 4-straight years including just three last year.
3 – He’s hit .280 three times but twice he’s failed to hit .261. A career .272 batter, Yoenis did raise his walk rate last season leading to a career best 0.47 BB/K ratio, but after three years under 0.30 can he hold on to those gains? Can he repeat the 21.5 percent line drive rate, a mark well above his career 19.3 percent mark?
4 – Yoenis has 66 homers, 208 RBI, 169 runs and 10 steals the last two seasons.
Albert Pujols 71 homers, 214 RBI, 156 runs and nine steals the last two seasons.
Matt Kemp has 58 homers, 208 RBI, 169 runs and 13 steals the last two seasons.
Jay Bruce has 59 homers, 186 RBI, 146 runs and 13 steals the last two seasons.
See what I’m saying? Is it really worth paying an early round premium to get a guy like Cespedes when others are pretty close to his production in the counting categories at a significantly reduced price?
PITCHER: Kenta Maeda
In his first season in North America Maeda had a really impressive campaign with 16 victories, a 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with 179 strikeouts in 175.2 innings. It was a hell of a season. However, there are significant concerns. Remember when Maeda signed his contract that had to be amended after “irregularities” were found in his elbow? There were concerns about his health before the season started after Maeda threw 200-innings just once his last four seasons in Japan. He failed to reach 180 in his first big league season. From July 17th on Maeda made 14 starts. Out of those 14 starts he last six innings three times. That’s scary (read it again). He made three postseason appearances covering 10.2 innings. Yes, he averaged less than four innings in three postseason starts (he had a 6.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP). That means he failed to last more than 5.0 innings in any of his final seven starts (playoffs included). Can you trust this arm to last 180-innings in 2017, let alone 200? You know my answer already.
PITHCER: J.A. Happ
Happ went 20-4 and that draws a lot of eyeballs. Of course, he had never won more than 12 games in nine big league seasons prior to that effort. He threw 195 innings, as a 33 year old, a career best (he had just one season of 170-innings in nine years). Happ has seen his ERA go down 5-straight seasons from 5.35 in 2011 to 3.18 in 2016. He’s not keeping that going. He’s also extremely unlikely to repeat a 3.18 ERA since the previous five seasons his ERA was under 4.20 just once. Sure guys can learn a new pitch, grow as a pitcher etc., but does that normally happen with a 33 year old? Happ posted a 7.52 K/9 rate last season. That’s a three year low and a tenth below his career mark. Happ did post a career best 9.6 swinging strike rate, but it’s still a league average number and pretty much in line with a guy who owns an 8.2 mark. There’s no substantial growth there. After posting a 2.62 BB/9 rate in 2014-15 the mark went up last year to 2.77. He posted a 1.02 HR/9 mark last season. His career rate is 1.07. For his career he owns a 4.28 SIERA and 4.18 xFIP. Those marks for his career are 4.22 and 4.23. The point of the previous paragraph should be obvious. Happ didn’t pitch appreciably different last season than he normally does, yet his fantasy numbers took off. If he pitches the same way again, for an 11th big league season, you think he’s going to be the guy we’ve seen nine times or the guy we’ve seen once? #RecencyBias
PITCHER: Michael Fulmer
The AL Rookie of the Year went 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 26 starts covering 159 innings. Coming into 2016, Fulmer had never thrown 125 professional innings. In 2016 he threw a total of 174.1 innings blowing past that career-high nearly cresting 50 extra innings. It’s a concern with a 23 year old who has had some arm issues in the past (knee surgery, bone spurs and bone chips in his elbow). It might be coincidental, but Fulmer did look terrible over his last three starts with a 5.87 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Going back a bit further, here are the numbers over his last seven outings: 1-4, 5.54 ERA, 1.44 WHIP with a 6.69 K/9 rate. He clearly wore down with the innings. Was he just tired? Can he handle the innings? Just don’t know yet do we. Moreover, he’s in the AL and that 7.47 K/9 rate just doesn’t impress me. I do like the 49.1 percent ground ball rate a lot, though I’m also significant concerned about his ability to repeat his 79.0 left on base percentage rate and his .268 BABIP. I mean, other than Clayton Kershaw no player repeats a 79 percent left on base rate (note that even Kershaw was at 78.3 percent in 2015). Check out Fulmer’s 4.03 SIERA and 3.95 xFIP which point to a fella who outperformed his ERA by about a full run. Fulmer should be mighty solid, but his ERA and WHIP seem likely to rise, perhaps a good bit, and questions about the workload will be there until he proves that he can handle the frames.