DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 12

Here are the results of Ray Flowers pouring over the data at the quarterback position for Week 12. 

* PA - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense    
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run
Spread = Point spreads
Vegas O/U = Over/Under

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• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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*NOTE: Note all quarterbacks have a writeup below. That doesn't mean that only the below options fit in each category. Check the graph below to see where the others rank.

ELITE OPTIONS

Ben Roethlisberger didn’t need to do anything last week to beat the Browns, and he didn’t throwing for 167 yards and no scores. What a nightmare effort. The last two times that he’s faced the Colts he’s thrown for 10 scores and 886 yards. Fire him up. Let’s just hope that he has to do something this week in a game the Steelers should also win handily.  

Russell Wilson has looked much better the last couple of games. Wilson tossed six scores the last three games. He’s been picked off once in nine games. He looks sharp and agile now, something that wasn’t occurring as his knee/ankle situation was precluding him from being the player we’re used to seeing. The Bucs will not be able to impose their will on the Seahawks as teams have routinely beat them through the air this season (the 8^th most yards, two touchdown passes a game and have picked off only seven passes).

Cam Newton is the captain of a sinking ship. The offense has produced just 53 points the last three outings, and Newton has thrown for just three passing scores in four games. In three of four games he failed to thrown for more than 225 yards. In 3-of-5 games he’s failed to complete 57.5 percent of his passes, to drop his completion rate to 56.5 which is 31^st in the NFL. Still, his talent is immense and his legs make an offensive explosion always a possibility.

Marcus Mariota blew up the Colts on the blitz in Week 11. In 7-straight outings his QB Rating has been at least 88.6. He’s produced at least two scores in 7-straight games. He’s only been picked off twice in five games. The Bears are a mess and never pick passes off (five).

Aaron Rodgers has played poor football but it doesn’t matter in fantasy as he’s scored at least three times in 5-consecutive games (I spoke about that in this Big-3 video). He’s also thrown 350-yards of passes the last two and 297 or more the last three and in 4/5 outings.

SOLID PLAYS

Eli Manning has nine passing scores in three games and 12 in five outings. Alas, he’s also been picked off four times the last two times out. He’s also been held under 260 yards in 4-straight. The Browns though... Eli should be able to beat them. The Browns have been torched for 25 scores through the air, most in football, a pace of 36 passing scores this season.

Dak Prescott was 11-for-16 for 159 yards and two scores when blitzed last week, a good thing given the Skins ability to get to the quarterback. He didn’t toss a score but threw for 292 yards in the first matchup, and over his last five outings he’s thrown at least two passing scores each game.

Kirk Cousins threw for 331 yards and three scores with a clean pocket last week. He hit 16-of-18 passes for 282-3 against the Packers cornerbacks. Cousins has thrown only six scores in four road games though he has averaged 329 passing yards an outing. He threw for 364 yards and a score in the Week 2 matchup with the Cowboys.

Colin Kaepernick isn’t very good, he hit on just 2-of-8 passes in the air 20-yards last week, but he still puts up solid fantasy numbers because of his legs. The Dolphins allow the 10^th fewest points a week to quarterbacks while holding quarterbacks to a 60.6 percent completion rate and 224.5 passing yards a game.

The Lions ran the ball for 14 yards last week putting a ton of pressure on Matthew Stafford. The offense no longer stretches the field and is all about moving the chains at this point. Stafford has failed to throw for 280 passing yards in 7-straight outings but he’s still tossed a mere pick in six games while tossing 11 touchdown passes. Two weeks ago these teams met and Stafford threw for 219 yards, a score and a pick.

RISKY PLAYS

Tyrod Taylor may or may not have Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins this week. He may also be without LeSean McCoy. Taylor has run for three scores in four games, but he also has one touchdown pass versus two picks in three games. The Jags have only three picks this season but they have also allowed just 14 passing scores while permitting a mere 209.6 yards a game in the air.

Carson Palmer stinks. He has eight touchdown passes in seven games and he simply had no time in Week 11 being pressured on 63 percent of his dropbacks last week. Worse though, he is making poor decisions even when he had time (he’s tossed five picks in three games). He’s a total mess who has been picked off seven times and fumbled once in three road games.

Joe Flacco was behind a strong effort from his o-line last week and he still threw for just 270/1. Even with an average of 41 passing attempts a game he has failed to reach 270 passing yards ¾ outings and he has just five touchdown passes in five games.

Sam Bradford got the ball out really quickly again last week, 2.18 seconds a pass, and the result was zero pass attempts of 20-yards. As a result of all the underneath stuff Bradford ranks a mere 22^nd at the position in points per drop back. Not much to see here.

Carson Wentz has a great matchup on paper with the Packers this week. Will it matter? See this Big-3 Video. The Packers allow 310 passing yards the last four. Wentz has four touchdown passes in six games. In 6-of-7 games he’s failed to throw for 240 yards. The positive matchup just isn’t enough to recommend Wentz.

Blake Bortles should be fine to play through his shoulder issue. He only completed 56 percent of his 25 pass attempts last week when he wasn’t pressured though as his mechanics are off, he’s still making bad decisions, the o-line continues to muddle along and his pass catchers aren’t helping by doing anything other than the bare minimum. At least he’s thrown the second most passes in football.

Jared Goff didn’t complete a pass that was in the air for more than 10-yards in his first NFL start. He only attempted five in such passes in his first start and his average per 31 attempts last week was 4.4 per pass. Yikes.

Jameis Winston fumbled twice, losing one, while also having two pass dropped that should have led to interceptions in Week 11. He does throw the ball an awful lot to one guy – Mike Evans – and he does have the highest average depth per aimed throw in football (10.8 yards).

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the Jets starter in Week 12. You shouldn’t care. He’s failed to throw for 200-yards in 3-of-4 games and has tossed five scores in seven games. Move on.

Cody Kessler has already been ruled out with a concussion. It means that Josh McCown will be back under center against the Giants. McCown has five passing scores versus six interceptions, is always hurt, and takes on a Giants club that is allowing the second fewest fantasy points a week to signal callers including a mere nine touchdown passes.

Andrew Luck continues to deal with men in his face all the time as the o-line can’t keep folks off him (he was pressured on 20 of 35 dropbacks last week hitting 9-of-16 for 129 yards in such situations). He paid the price suffering a concussion Sunday causing him to be extremely doubtful to play Turkey Day (it would be a shock if he suited up). Scott Tolzien will be under center if that is the case. Tolzien has thrown one pass since the start of the 2014 season. The Steelers have only five interceptions this season, but they have also permitted just 12 passing scores even if they also allow the 7^th most passing yards a game.

Andy Dalton won’t have Gio Bernard or A.J. Green which crushes the Red Rifle’s outlook. Even with that duo Dalton has just three passing scores in three games, and just 11 in 10 games this season. The Ravens do allow 1.9 passing scores a game but they permit just 219 passing yards an outing.

Jay Cutler doesn’t have Alshon Jeffery or Zach Miller. His pass catchers dropped four passes last week as he was sacked four times. Now Cutler will miss time with a shoulder injury, potentially the rest of the season, leaving Matt Barkley to start. It will get ugly this weekend, and even at a bottom barely price there is no conceivable way to start Barkley without embarrassing yourself.