DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 11

Ray Flowers takes a look at the landscape of signal callers in Week 11 and gives you his thoughts on the likely hits and misses for the next series of games.

* PA - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense    
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
 

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• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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*NOTE: Note all quarterbacks have a writeup below. That doesn't mean that only the below options fit in each category. Check the graph below to see where the others rank.

ELITE OPTIONS

Tom Brady leads quarterbacks in points per drop back. The Niners have only seven picks this season while allowing 2.11 scores a game. Brady hit all seven passes when he was blitzed last week but he didn’t appear as sharp as normal. He will still carve up the team from the Bay Area.

Cam Newton had another spotty week in Week 10 given the expectations. On the year he is 20th with a mark of 57.1 in the QB Rating when under pressure which is simply dreadful. He’s also thrown just two scores the last three games. The Saints allow the most passing yards a week and have picked off just six passes in nine games. The talent is elite, the matchup is prime. Look for Newton to return to greatness this week.

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 408 and three last time out. He looked sharper than his first game back. He hit 39 of 46 targeted passes. The o-line gave Ben a pocket last time out as he was pressured on just six of 55 pass blocking snaps. The Browns have been battered for 25 passing scores, the most in football.

Drew Brees threw for his 300+ yards and three scores again last week, even against the vaunted Broncos. Playing in Carolina against a solid defense is tough, but as I always say the talk of the road killing Brees’ value is overrated. In four road starts this season he has a 99.9 QB Rating with 290 passing yards and 2.25 passing scores a game.

Aaron Rodgers was crap last week. He threw for 371 yards a season best, but he looked awful in the first half and hit just 10-of-23 passes that were in the air for 10-yards. He’s living off garbage time production at the moment. The ‘Skins have only allowed 10 passing scores this season but with the Packers simply eschewing the run, the volume in the air is immense (45.8 passing attempts the last six games).

SOLID PLAYS

Marcus Mariota continues to light up defenses. He had a 146.8 QB Rating last time out while under pressure as he tossed four scores, the sixth straight game in which he’s thrown at least two passing scores. The last time he faced the Cols he tossed for 232 yards and two scores in his worst game in six outings.

Finally healthy-ish, Russell Wilson is still not 100 percent, but he’s back to tearing up defenses. He lit up the Pats last week when under pressure hitting 10-of-14 for 143 yards and two scores, and over his last two games he has five passing scores and one on the ground. Eagles are tough though and rank 5^th in pass rush according to PFF, and that’s an ear in which the Seahawks can struggle.

Blake Bortles threw two picks in the first half last week and looked awful. He still threw for 265 yards and two scores thank to 50 pass attempts though he was 0-for-5 on passes thrown 20-yards. Do you know he’s still on pace for 4,300 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes? That ain’t bad at all. Bortles has thrown for 250/2 in 3-straight games and the Lions have only picked off four passes. No turnovers will lead to success for Bortles – IF he can take advantage of the matchup.

Dak Prescott is the starter in Week 11 for the ‘Boys and likely until he faceplants which simply doesn’t seem likely to happen. He simply doesn’t make mistakes and has a great command of the offense. He’s produced at least two passing scores in 4-straight, and has four rushing scores in eight games. The Ravens allow the 9^th fewest points a week to signal callers and represent a solid challenge for Dak.

RISKY PLAYS

Kirk Cousins has three games in four outings of two passing scores. He’s thrown for at least 260 passing yards in 5-straight and eight of nine games. The Packers allow more than two passing scores a game and have picked off seven passes. The Packers also rank 8^th in pass coverage according to PFF and Cousins could be without DeSean Jackson.

Colin Kaepernick had a 101.5 QB Rating on aimed passes last week (23 attempts). When under pressure though, yikes, as he hit 2-of-7 for 24 yards as he was sacked three times. His legs continue to be the difference maker for Colin as he’s run for 55 yards in ¾ games which adds a ton. The Niners will fall behind, get smashed, and Kaepernick will produce numbers late.  

Joe Flacco produced 166 of his 296 passing yards on slant passes last week in his first three touchdown score of the season. It was more about his receivers than anything he did in Week 10. He’s attempted 40-passes in seven of his last eight games, so there is always volume here. Dallas has the 9^th worst defense according to PFF.

Jameis Winston hit 20-of-24 for 247 yards and two scores when not pressured last week. Of his 29 aimed passes he was on target for 25 of them. Winston has 10 scores the last four games against two picks. The Chiefs allow just 244 passing yards a game and just 16 touchdown passes this season, and Arrowhead is not an easy place to play.

Andy Dalton has thrown two picks in six games. He’s yet to throw three scores in a game, and he’s thrown 0/1 passing scores in 7-of-9 outings. Dalton has also failed to throw 30-passes in 2/3 games. With the Bills allowing just 10 passing scores this season and a league best 30 sacks it’s not exactly a favorable matchup.

Ryan Tannehill is Alex Smith east now filling in as a game manager, nothing else. He actually completed four passes over 20-yards last week, long an issue for him, as 138 yards and two scores came on those passes (his other 20 pass attempts produced 102 yards and no scores). Tannehill hasn’t been picked in 4-straight but has just four passing scores in five games. Nothing to see here.

Carson Palmer threw for a gazillion yards, 340 or more in 3-straight, but yet again failed to really impress though he did thrown the ball 22 times on passes of at least 10-yards last week. The last two games he has lost two fumbles and been picked off three times. He faces the Vikings who aren’t as sharp as early in the season, but the Vikes have permitted a mere 10 passing scores and allow less than 212 yards a game through the air.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Brock Osweiler… 99 passing yards. That’s three games in a row under 190-yards. The Raiders allow the third most passing yards a game but they have the 7^th best pass rush according to PFF and have the 11^th best overall defense as well.

Jay Cutler had arguably the worst game of his career last time out, and now he’s without Alshon Jeffery. Cutler has three passing scores in four games and has failed to pass for 220-yards in ¾ games. Not much else matters, does it?

Carson Wentz had another game without doing anything in the fantasy game. Nothing. That’s two games in a row without a touchdown pass and he has just two passing scores in five. Anything else matter in the analysis? This week he goes to Seattle, the toughest place to play in football, and is gonna get crushed.

Sam Bradford averaged 5.3 yards per depth of target in Week 10, the lowest mark in the league. That’s two game in a row under six yards. The o-line is ranked 30^th at PFF so he has no choice but to get the ball out quickly. The Cards allowing just 195 passing yards a game, second best, and their total of six passing scores permitted is also a league best.

Jared Goff looked terrible in the preseason and it took until Week 11 for him to remove Case Keenum from the starting spot with the Rams. If you start Goff --- you just aren’t paying attention.