DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 8

What should you do this week with six teams on hiatus? Ray Flowers breaks down the signal callers for you this week - the 8th of the 2016 NFL season. 

* PA - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense    
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run.
* Spread = Point spreads
* Vegas O/U = Over/Under

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ELITE OPTIONS

Tom Brady hit 11-of-13 passes under 10-yards, and one was a drop in Week 7. He hit 19-of-26 pass last week but if you remove a drop, a throwaway and a batted pass he was 19-for-23. Surgical and, as always, elite.

Matt Ryan threw for 273 and one last week. He was solid when under pressure hitting 7-of-11 targets. He may not always be “on” but he has avoided the significant mistakes that can torpedo an offense.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 326 yards and three scores in Week 7. He still fumbled for the 6^th time this season and his mechanics still seem off. He certainly picked things up in the second half and looked more comfortable. Get rid of the ball quicker Aaron. He completed 79 percent of passes he threw last week when he let go of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds. He’s thrown more passes the last three weeks than any three consecutive games in his career.

Cam Newton takes on the Cardinals who rank as the top pass rush according to ProFootballFocus.

Andrew Luck continues to have to battle with an o-line that is struggling. He was under pressure last week on 17 of his 43 dropbacks but he still hit 9-of-15 for 111 yards and a score on those 17 passes. That shouldn’t be the case this week as KC has just eight sacks and comes in as the 7^th worst rush defense according to PFF.

SOLID PLAYS

Jameis Winston threw for 144 yards and three scores on the 16 passes he threw last week when he wasn’t blitzed. He’s seemingly righted a wobbly ship and the Raiders get blitzed on a weekly basis by signal callers allowing a league worst 302 passing yards a game while generating only nine sacks all year.

Drew Brees threw for 367 yards and three scores on the road last week. He plays every week in fantasy no matter where the game is being played. You just have to decide if the price is right or not.  

Derek Carr got the ball out quick last week with 19 of his 37 attempts being on passes of nine yards or less though when blitzed this season he’s tossed just one pick while posting a QB Rating of 94.4. He’s simply not making mistakes, and for the majority of his looks he’s making smart decisions.

Russell Wilson didn’t get it done last week, and there are plenty of concerns that I shared in this Daily Dive video. He still hit 24-of-33 passes in Week 7 if you remove the three drops his receivers committed. Still, he attempted just 10 passes of 10-yards as the o-line simply couldn’t give him any time to sit back in the pocket. Wilson has also run just 11 times in six games.

Andy Dalton was efficient throwing for 260 yards and two scores in Week 7 on just 28 pass attempts. Of course, he was aided tremendously by the near 50-yard Hail Mary score to A.J. Green. The Redskins have only intercepted four passes this season though they have racked up 19 sacks, something that could be an issue as Dalton has hit just 50 percent of his passes this season when under pressure as he’s tossed just two scores on 64 such passes.

Matthew Stafford is playing some great football. He carved up the Redskins last week hitting 16-of-21 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown when he wasn’t under pressure. Houston though has allowed just five passing scores and less than 185 passing yards a week in what is a difficult matchup.

RISKY PLAYS

Marcus Mariota hit just 58.3 percent of the 24 passes he attempted last week when he wasn’t blitzed. Gotta be better than that as the offensive line is certainly doing their thing very well. The Jags have only picked off three passes this season, but they are allowing just 215 passing yards a game, 6^th best in football. Only once in six games has he thrown more than 33 passes, last week, which is one of the reasons that he’s been over 240 passing yards once in six games.

Carson Palmer hit just 6-of-16 passes for 37 yards when he was under pressure last week. He continues to be unable to elevate his level of play. Palmer has graded out negatively in 3-of-6 games according to PFF. He has just two passing scores the last four games and faces a solid defense in Carolina that has slipped to middle of the pack in advanced measures.

Ryan Fitzpatrick takes on the Browns who have allowed at least two passing scores in every game this season and their 18 touchdown passes allowed is tied for the league worst. The Browns also allowed 286 passing yards a game, 4^th worst, and they have only picked off six passes, something that should aide the oft turnover prone Fitzpatrick.

Alex Smith had perfect 158.3 QB Rating on passes when blitzed last week and he hit 13-of-14 of the passes under 10 yards against the Saints. The matchup is again good on paper, but the matchup has been good on paper the last two weeks and not much has happened, has it?

Philip Rivers was pressured on just nine of 47 drop backs in Week 7 as the offensive line played very well. Rivers has graded out negatively against pressure this season with a 69.8 QB Rating and a 54.3 completion percentage. The Broncos are 5^th in pass rush effectiveness according to PFF including a league leading 22 sacks.

Blake Bortles was off last week. He was only sacked once, and under pressure on just 10 of 47 drop backs, but he still threw two picks and completed just 53.5 percent of his 43 pass attempts. There’s a lot going on here with three main issues stopping success. (1) He’s not racking up the garbage time production like he did last year. (2) His offensive line play hasn’t been great. (3) His mechanics are off.

Tyrod Taylor continues to produce despite players falling everywhere around him. It might be hard to believe, but according to PFF Taylor is tied with Cam Newton for the 4^th spot in football in terms of fantasy points per drop back. Taylor has run for 25+ yards every game since Week 1, and he continues to produce despite injuries all around him, and the fact that he’s being pressured the 2^nd most in football (Luck). At least the Pats rank in the bottom third in pass rush.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Carson Wentz did not look good last week, a second week in a row that failed to impress. Wentz threw two picks last week and also fumbled twice. He forced throws into tight coverage and seemed unsure of himself at times. Wentz was only under pressure on six of 28 drop backs last week so it wasn’t the lines fault. Went has one score in two games and has been under 180 passing yards in 2-straight.

Sam Bradford looked terrible in Week 7 because the offensive line let him down. When not blitzed he hit only 59 percent of his passes and the number plummeted to 36 percent when under pressure. Bradford is still 5^th in the league in completion percentage on aimed throws though he is 30^th in depth per pass on his aimed throws. Turnovers shouldn’t be a big part of his game given those numbers. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).