NFL Week 7 Review: Hot Takes, Part I

ANDREW LUCK IS A STAR, PERIOD

Please stop sending me question about whether or not you should start Andrew Luck.

Let me be clear.

Yes, he always starts.

The Colts are 3-4. It’s not Luck’s fault.

In Week 7 Luck went 27-for-39 for 353 yards, three scores and no picks. He was better than that though. Colts players dropped for passes in the game. That means he really should have been 31-for-39. One of those drops was in the end zone by Jack Doyle or he could have had four touchdown passes.

Luck has thrown one pick in three games.

Luck has thrown for 320-yards in four of seven games.

Luck is on pace to completed a career best 64.9 percent of his passes.

Luck is on pace to post a career best QB Rating of 98.3 percent.

Luck is on pace to throw for 4,741 yards and 32 touchdowns with just nine interceptions.

Always start Andrew Luck.

TIGHT END UPDATE

Gary Barnidge has failed to score this season. However, in 4-of-5 games he’s caught at least five passes. He’s also gone over 55 yards in 5-straight outings. No matter who is throwing the ball he’s having success. Boring, but stable.

Martellus Bennett has a 2.62 yards per route run mark, second in football at the position behind Greg Olsen (2.70). Bennett only appeared on the field for 30-of-57 snaps in Week 7 and he only ran 10 routes. That’s five games in a row in which Bennett has seen his snap percentage dip. Dreams of he and Rob Gronkowski both being elite plays at tight end appear to be falling into the realm of wishful thinking.

Cameron Brate has caught four balls for 67 yards the last two games as he’s seen just six targets. Nothing to see there, despite what appears to be a need with Vincent Jackson out.

Vernon Davis continues to produce big time for the ‘Skins with Jordan Reed out. Davis caught all six of his targets for 79 yards in Week 7 after catching a score in Week 6. Jordan Reed (concussion) could return this week.

Antonio Gates has dropped three of 20 targets, the worst drop rate amongst qualifiers at the position. Gates caught only 5-of-10 targets for 38 yards in Week 7 as he has failed to reach 40-yards in a game this season. He’s also scored just twice in five games. Hunter Henry suffered a lower body tweak in Week 7, and also a concussion, so keep an eye on how things progress with the younger tight end heading into the Chargers next contest.

Kyle Rudolph had 10 targets against Carolina. The following two weeks he saw just 11 targets. He rebounded in Week 7 with 11 targets from Sam Bradford. In three of his last four games Rudolph has at least five receptions and 55 yards. He’s also scored three times his last five outings.

Delanie Walker scored in Week 7, his third score in five games. In two of his last three outings he’s caught five balls for 66 yards, and he exceeded both of those totals in Week 7 with seven grabs for 84 yards. He’s still caught one and two passes in 2-of-4 games so he’s not out of the woods yet, but he’s certainly trending upward.

Russell Wilson’s injuries are hurting his fantasy value. Tavon Austin is still not a good fantasy option. As long as Melvin Gordon scores touchdowns, he will keep his fantasy value. Check out the Daily Dive video. 

NUMBERS TO KNOW

1.93: The yards generated after contact for Devonta Freeman in Week 7. That mark was outside the top-25 for the week. For the season the mark is 2.1, a mark he has failed to reach his last three outings. For the fourth straight game he also forced just one missed tackle.

6: The yards generated on the ground by the Ravens in Week 7. I didn’t even know that was possible. Take away that 49 yards run of Terrance West cause of a penalty, and the team ran for six yards. It might be more amazing when you realize that the team produced 17 yards after contact. Yes, that’s more yards after contact than rushing yards.

6: The career best total of receptions for Todd Gurley in Week 7. Over the last four games an average pass catching outing for Gurley includes 4.5 receptions and 39.75 yards. That’s 8.475 points in a PPR setups which is akin to 84.75 rushing yards. It’s saving his value given that he’s failed to run for 75 yards in four outings.

7: The long run in Week 7 for Mark Ingram was seven yards. Ingram broke four tackles but posted an underwhelming 3.9 YPC in the outing. The o-line struggled to open up any lanes for Ingram. For the 4th straight game Ingram was between 15 and 18 carries, and for the 4th straight game he failed to run for 80-yards. He’s also scored just once this season on the ground though he has scored twice as a pass catcher while grabbing four passes in four of the last five games to maintain his value, especially in PPR leagues.

10: Jay Ajayi ran for 214 yards with 129 of them after contact as he broke 10 tackles in a tremendous performance. No other back broke more than five tackles in Week 7 (LeGarrette Blount). For more on his historic effort see this Hot Takes piece.

22: The number of targets the last two games for Golden Tate. He’s caught 14 of those passes for at least 93-yards in each outing. That’s what his owners were hoping for. Still only has one touchdown this season though.

31: The number of targets to Davante Adams (16) and Randall Cobb (15) in Week 7. Those two marks were #1 and #2 in football. The caught 23 passes, 13 to Adams and 10 to Cobb. Moreover, of the six men who caught 10 passes in Week 7 three were Packers (Ty Montgomery). None were Jordy Nelson. For more on the purported #1 wideout in Green Bay see Friday Hot Takes.  

47: The number of snaps that Ty Montgomery lined up as a running back in Week 7. Randall Cobb was back there for nine snaps. The duo ran for 81 yards and generated 66 yards after contact on the 14 carries.

Matt Asiata is supposed to be a good pass blocker. He didn’t do the job in Week 7 as he allowed a sack and four hurries on his 10 pass blocking attempts. He also dropped two passes in the game.

Julio Jones caught nine balls for 174 yards on 15 targets in Week 7. He caught passes against five defenders. Jones leads the league with a 3.50 yards produced per route run. No one else in football is above 2.99 (A.J. Green).

Matt Jones fumbled twice in Week 7 bringing up all over again the concerns about his ability to hold on to the football. His role going forward is tenuous at best. Rob Kelley scored on a short pass in Week 7 but it was Chris Thompson who really stepped forward. Thompson caught seven passes for 40 yards but he also carried the ball 12 times for another 73 yards. His role could certainly grow moving forward but he’s just not a guy who profiles as a big time ball carrier. In fact, he’s carried the ball just 76 times in 22 career games. Thompson could still end up in the 10-12 touch range week after week though, that that would give him PPR value as a flex option.

The Niners are hideous on defense. Still, have to be impressed by the work of Jacquizz Rodgers who ran for 154 yards on 26 carries in Week 7. Rodgers broke four tackles and produced 106 of his yards after contact.

Carson Wentz had a 2.8 passer rating when under pressure in Week 7. He folded in the face of the pressure.

Kirk Cousins is rolling after a slow start to the season. The Jets have no idea what they are doing with Matt Forte. Michael Thomas looks like he is the most consistent receiver for the Saints. See this Big-3 video.

HEALTH CONCERNS

Jeremy Hill carried the ball nine times for 168 yards. Only twice previously in league history has a player ran for more yards while carrying the ball less than 10 times: Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball eight times for 177 in 2009 and Hugh McElhenny gained 170 yards on seven carries in 1952. Hill hurt his arm/shoulder though so keep an eye on his health.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).