Ray Flowers breaks down the matchups in Week as we welcome back guys like Kaepernick, Newton and Palmer. Where does last week's returning, Brady rank this week?
# | Player Name | Team | Opponent | Snaps | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | PA% | RAT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD |
1 | Cam Newton | CAR | NO@ | 274 | 77 | 133 | 974 | 6 | 5 | 48.5% | 80.2 | 29 | 147 | 2 |
2 | Tom Brady | NE | CIN | 71 | 28 | 40 | 406 | 3 | 0 | 56.3% | 127.7 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
3 | Drew Brees | NO | CAR | 285 | 116 | 176 | 1269 | 10 | 3 | 61.8% | 98.9 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
4 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | MIA@ | 331 | 126 | 192 | 1496 | 15 | 4 | 58% | 106.6 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
5 | Russell Wilson | SEA | ATL | 255 | 87 | 133 | 1064 | 5 | 1 | 52.2% | 99.3 | 15 | 28 | 0 |
6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | DAL | 269 | 78 | 139 | 876 | 9 | 3 | 51.7% | 87.7 | 17 | 82 | 2 |
7 | Carson Palmer | ARI | NYJ | 261 | 90 | 153 | 1150 | 6 | 5 | 58.6% | 81.9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
8 | Blake Bortles | JAC | CHI@ | 275 | 98 | 160 | 1050 | 7 | 6 | 58.2% | 79.4 | 15 | 89 | 1 |
9 | Derek Carr | OAK | KC | 345 | 129 | 193 | 1383 | 11 | 2 | 55.9% | 102.3 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
10 | Andrew Luck | IND | HOU@ | 290 | 131 | 205 | 1469 | 10 | 3 | 70.7% | 95.4 | 15 | 79 | 0 |
11 | Matthew Stafford | DET | LAR | 340 | 123 | 181 | 1378 | 10 | 4 | 53.2% | 99.6 | 14 | 80 | 0 |
12 | Eli Manning | NYG | BAL | 324 | 119 | 187 | 1385 | 5 | 4 | 57.7% | 86 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
13 | Brian Hoyer | CHI | JAC | 215 | 100 | 140 | 1094 | 6 | 0 | 65.1% | 108.5 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
14 | Dak Prescott | DAL | GB@ | 347 | 107 | 155 | 1239 | 4 | 0 | 44.7% | 101.5 | 19 | 61 | 3 |
15 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | SF | 296 | 86 | 139 | 897 | 6 | 2 | 47% | 88.9 | 26 | 168 | 1 |
16 | Matt Ryan | ATL | SEA@ | 329 | 116 | 168 | 1740 | 12 | 2 | 51.1% | 121.6 | 15 | 50 | 0 |
17 | Joe Flacco | BAL | NYG@ | 370 | 138 | 216 | 1282 | 5 | 4 | 58.4% | 80.1 | 10 | 17 | 2 |
18 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | CLE | 341 | 100 | 165 | 1088 | 7 | 5 | 48.4% | 81.6 | 20 | 132 | 1 |
19 | Philip Rivers | SD | DEN | 316 | 117 | 172 | 1469 | 11 | 3 | 54.4% | 108.4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
20 | Carson Wentz | PHI | WAS@ | 275 | 91 | 135 | 1007 | 7 | 1 | 49.1% | 103.5 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
21 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | SD@ | 216 | 68 | 101 | 824 | 6 | 3 | 46.8% | 99.6 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
22 | Alex Smith | KC | OAK@ | 273 | 109 | 168 | 1073 | 5 | 2 | 61.5% | 87.7 | 10 | 16 | 1 |
23 | Colin Kaepernick | LAR | DET@ | N/A | ||||||||||
24 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | PHI | 324 | 129 | 192 | 1432 | 7 | 5 | 59.3% | 90.5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
25 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | IND | 346 | 109 | 188 | 1133 | 6 | 7 | 54.3% | 70.6 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
26 | Andy Dalton | CIN | NE@ | 340 | 126 | 187 | 1503 | 5 | 2 | 55% | 96.2 | 23 | 76 | 0 |
27 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | PIT | 273 | 100 | 156 | 1272 | 6 | 7 | 57.1% | 83.6 | 12 | 54 | 1 |
28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | ARI@ | 342 | 111 | 192 | 1267 | 5 | 10 | 56.1% | 64.7 | 15 | 72 | 0 |
29 | Case Keenum | LAR | DET@ | 314 | 88 | 152 | 1096 | 4 | 5 | 48.4% | 75.4 | 11 | 30 | 0 |
30 | Cody Kessler | CLE | TEN@ | 153 | 54 | 81 | 529 | 2 | 1 | 52.9% | 87.9 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
* # = Rank this week.
** PA % - Percentage of plays run that were passes.
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# | Player Name | Team | Opponent | Pts Allowed | Opp Pass Rk | Opp Rk | DVOA | Opp Pass Yds/G | Pace | O/U | $Line | $FD | $DK | $FA |
1 | Cam Newton | CAR | NO@ | 18.1 | 26 | 28 | 0.1380 | 301.3 | 26.56 | 0 | $8900 | $8100 | $7500 | |
2 | Tom Brady | NE | CIN | 19.3 | 17 | 19 | 0.0120 | 224.6 | 28.39 | 47 | -437 | $9000 | $7700 | $7500 |
3 | Drew Brees | NO | CAR | 20.1 | 22 | 14 | -0.025 | 246.4 | 25.66 | 0 | $8500 | $7900 | $7700 | |
4 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | MIA@ | 16 | 21 | 21 | 0.0430 | 250.2 | 28.09 | 47.5 | 312 | $8700 | $7500 | $7450 |
5 | Russell Wilson | SEA | ATL | 26.3 | 24 | 26 | 0.1240 | 290.2 | 29.06 | 46 | -240 | $8400 | $6900 | $6750 |
6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | DAL | 16.6 | 25 | 25 | 0.1110 | 260.6 | 28.26 | 47 | -210 | $8800 | $7300 | $7400 |
7 | Carson Palmer | ARI | NYJ | 19.9 | 32 | 30 | 0.1640 | 302.4 | 25.79 | 47 | -400 | $7700 | $6000 | $6700 |
8 | Blake Bortles | JAC | CHI@ | 15.6 | 14 | 18 | 0.0080 | 227.6 | 25.29 | 47 | -142 | $7800 | $6300 | $6700 |
9 | Derek Carr | OAK | KC | 15.2 | 6 | 9 | -0.068 | 240.5 | 27.96 | 0 | $7900 | $6500 | $6500 | |
10 | Andrew Luck | IND | HOU@ | 11 | 9 | 13 | -0.04 | 181 | 26.65 | 46 | -160 | $8600 | $7100 | $7200 |
11 | Matthew Stafford | DET | LAR | 16.7 | 10 | 12 | -0.048 | 242.4 | 27.94 | 43.5 | -170 | $8000 | $6200 | $6450 |
12 | Eli Manning | NYG | BAL | 15.3 | 12 | 5 | -0.169 | 190.8 | 25.09 | 44.5 | -150 | $7700 | $5900 | $6200 |
13 | Brian Hoyer | CHI | JAC | 20.4 | 7 | 10 | -0.059 | 198.8 | 26.34 | 47 | -142 | $7000 | $5800 | $6350 |
14 | Dak Prescott | DAL | GB@ | 20.3 | 19 | 8 | -0.099 | 274.5 | 29.52 | 47 | -210 | $7200 | $5900 | $6100 |
15 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | SF | 18.8 | 13 | 17 | -0.007 | 222.8 | 27.47 | 44.5 | -355 | $7800 | $5300 | $6100 |
16 | Matt Ryan | ATL | SEA@ | 10.8 | 1 | 1 | -0.295 | 183.8 | 27.56 | 46 | -240 | $7600 | $6700 | $6500 |
17 | Joe Flacco | BAL | NYG@ | 14.3 | 18 | 16 | -0.015 | 261.6 | 26.69 | 44.5 | -150 | $7500 | $5800 | $6000 |
18 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | CLE | 19.3 | 28 | 27 | 0.1340 | 288.4 | 29.09 | 45.5 | -370 | $7600 | $6100 | $6300 |
19 | Philip Rivers | SD | DEN | 14.7 | 2 | 4 | -0.174 | 185.6 | 28.01 | 45.5 | 160 | $7600 | $0 | $6900 |
20 | Carson Wentz | PHI | WAS@ | 17.3 | 16 | 23 | 0.0620 | 262 | 31.53 | 45 | 113 | $7500 | $6000 | $6200 |
21 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | SD@ | 20.4 | 11 | 15 | -0.017 | 291.6 | 27.61 | 45.5 | 160 | $7300 | $0 | $6150 |
22 | Alex Smith | KC | OAK@ | 21.6 | 29 | 29 | 0.1530 | 330.6 | 26.3 | 0 | $6800 | $5700 | $6150 | |
23 | Colin Kaepernick | LAR | DET@ | N/A | ||||||||||
24 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | PHI | 6.1 | 3 | 2 | -0.251 | 193.5 | 27.71 | 45 | 113 | $7400 | $5600 | $6250 |
25 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | IND | 18.4 | 30 | 31 | 0.2050 | 301 | 27.57 | 46 | -160 | $6900 | $5400 | $5950 |
26 | Andy Dalton | CIN | NE@ | 17.7 | 27 | 24 | 0.0700 | 258.6 | 26.6 | 47 | -437 | $7600 | $5500 | $6200 |
27 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | PIT | 17.8 | 20 | 20 | 0.0130 | 302 | 26.4 | 47.5 | 312 | $7100 | $5400 | $5700 |
28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | ARI@ | 15.5 | 5 | 6 | -0.15 | 189.8 | 28.48 | 47 | -400 | $6900 | $5200 | $6000 |
29 | Case Keenum | LAR | DET@ | 24.3 | 31 | 32 | 0.2360 | 263.4 | 28.28 | 43.5 | -170 | $6500 | $5000 | $5000 |
30 | Cody Kessler | CLE | TEN@ | 14.6 | 8 | 7 | -0.1 | 222.4 | 26.56 | 45.5 | -370 | $6300 | $5000 | $5000 |
* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run.
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# | Player Name | Team | Opponent | P>20 | P>40 | RZ Pass Att | RZ Pass <15 | RZ Pass <10 | RZ Pass <5 | RZ Rush Att | RZ Rush <15 | RZ Rush <10 | RZ Rush <5 |
1 | Cam Newton | CAR | NO@ | 13 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
2 | Tom Brady | NE | CIN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Drew Brees | NO | CAR | 17 | 3 | 29 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | MIA@ | 20 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5 | Russell Wilson | SEA | ATL | 13 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | DAL | 10 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
7 | Carson Palmer | ARI | NYJ | 16 | 2 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8 | Blake Bortles | JAC | CHI@ | 14 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
9 | Derek Carr | OAK | KC | 18 | 2 | 27 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10 | Andrew Luck | IND | HOU@ | 20 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
11 | Matthew Stafford | DET | LAR | 15 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
12 | Eli Manning | NYG | BAL | 13 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
13 | Brian Hoyer | CHI | JAC | 9 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
14 | Dak Prescott | DAL | GB@ | 12 | 1 | 24 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
15 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | SF | 8 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
16 | Matt Ryan | ATL | SEA@ | 26 | 10 | 35 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | Joe Flacco | BAL | NYG@ | 13 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
18 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | CLE | 16 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
19 | Philip Rivers | SD | DEN | 20 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
20 | Carson Wentz | PHI | WAS@ | 12 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
21 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | SD@ | 8 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
22 | Alex Smith | KC | OAK@ | 9 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
23 | Colin Kaepernick | LAR | DET@ | N/A | |||||||||
24 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | PHI | 17 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
25 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | IND | 13 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
26 | Andy Dalton | CIN | NE@ | 22 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
27 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | PIT | 18 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | ARI@ | 14 | 1 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
29 | Case Keenum | LAR | DET@ | 18 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
30 | Cody Kessler | CLE | TEN@ | 6 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
* Rankings - #1 best for QBs, #30 worst for QBs.
• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)
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ELITE OPTIONS
Cam Newton is third in the NFL in fantasy points per drop back. When these teams met last December he threw for 331 yards and five scores. They haven’t ever been able to stop him actually as Cam has 10 scores and an average of 291 passing yards a game the last three matchups.
Vintage Tom Brady was 14-for-20 not blitzed in Week 5, but in a vintage Brady effort he still hit 14-of-20 passes when blitzed tossing three scores. He’s always a top-10 option. The only debate each week is if he’s in the top-5.
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 13 scores in five games, the most in Steelers history. He threw for 380 yards and four scores in Week 5 as he was only under pressure on eight of 48 plays (30-of-34 attempts when not under pressure was Big Ben). He’s third in football in yards per aimed throw (11.0) and he leads the league in completion percentage + drops per aimed thrown (82.6 percent). If only his guys wouldn’t drop so many passes his numbers would be even better.
Russell Wilson is second in the NFL in accuracy ratio (a completion percentage that removes spikes and intentional throwaways that also adds back in dropped passes). He gets to face a Falcons team that has been battered for a 69 percent completion rate with a league worst 14 touchdown passes allowed. The Bye week should have helped his body to heal as well.
SOLID PLAYS
Aaron Rodgers has really struggled times. See this Hot Takes article. He has to get the ball out quicker. On 29 passes in Week 5 in which he held on to the ball at least 2.5 seconds he hit just 13 leading to a QB Rating of 40.9, this despite the fact that Rodgers was pressured on just seven of 50 total dropbacks. Rodgers had the longest average time to throw per attempt, 3.28 seconds, but he still completed just 23-of-45 passes for 259 yards and two picks.
Carson Palmer is second in the NFL in points per drop back, and he returns from a concussion this week. Palmer is second in the league in yards per aimed throw (11.1). The Jets defense comes in as the 4th worst overall unit according to Pro Football Focus and they rank second from the bottom in pass coverage.
Blake Bortles is on the road against the Bears which rank 14th in overall D according to PFF. The Bears are allowing a 67.3 percent completion rate and have picked off only three passes in five games. Bortles as thrown or two scores in 3-straight and had a rushing score last week too.
Derek Carr was under pressure on a mere 10 pass attempts last week. When under pressure he hit on 7-of-8 passes in which he didn’t throw the ball away. The Chiefs have only five sacks this season which means Carr should have plenty of time to pick apart the D. He’s ranked as the #1 passer overall according to Pro Football Focus.
Andrew Luck hit on 25-of-32 passes for 265 yards when he had a clean pocket in Week 5 with two touchdown passes. Pretty simple Colts. Give him a pocket to throw from and the results are wonderful (he was under pressure on just seven of 49 dropbacks). Luck, with time, also hit on 10-of-14 passes that were in the air more than 10-yards. Luck leads the league with 235 drop backs.
Matthew Stafford didn’t attempt a single pass of 20-yards in Week 5. It should also be noted that 78 percent of the Lions yards through the air were yards after the catch. No quarterback in football has lost more yards on drops than Stafford at 148 yards.
Eli Manning didn’t complete a pass of 20-yards in Week 5. About 70 percent of his passing yards last week were generated on YAC. He’s thrown for two scores in four games. Things will improve this week as the Ravens have allowed nine passing scores though they have generated turnovers.
Brian Hoyer was boosted by his pass catchers who generated 44 percent of the 392 passing yards of Hoyer in Week 5 after the catch. When he wasn’t blitzed last week he looked great hitting on 86 percent of his 29 passes for 320 yards and two scores. Hoyer leads the league in yards per aimed throw (12.1) and his 100.9 PFF QB Rating leads the league.
Dak Prescott attempted just eight passes of more than 10-yards last week hitting six for 111 yards. He’s thrown 88 passes in the first half versus just 67 in the second. Prescott was 21st last week in yards per aimed throw at just 7.5 yards.
RISKY PLAYS
Tyrod Taylor attempted just one pass over 20-yards in Week 5 not flashing his trademark skill. He was also just 4-for-11 when under pressure. He also lined up behind the left guard, not the center, on a shotgun attempt. He needs the long ball. He didn’t do it last week and there’s still no Sammy Watkins.
Matt Ryan was successful, yet again, against a top shelf defense in Week 5 though 180 of his 267 passing yards were on passes thrown to his running backs. He got the ball out quick to whomever he was tossing it to hitting on 12-of-16 for 155 yards. He is ranked as the Total QBR leader on ESPN though he takes on the #3 QBR Defense in the Seahawks. Ryan is also third in PFF QB Rating despite two tough matchups in a row.
Joe Flacco completed none of the four pass attempts that were in the air for more than 20-yards in Week 5. Perhaps the change from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg as the new offensive coordinator will help. Perhaps.
Marcus Mariota really struggled the first quarter of the season before showing very well in Week 5. He produced three passing scores and ran for another. He also was 8-for-11 when under pressure with all three of the passing scores. #FinallyTheWormIsTurning
Philip Rivers tore apart the Raiders when he had a clean pocket with 302 passing yards and three scores on 22 passes. He leads the league with 12 throwaways to avoid sacks and he’s second in PFF QB Rating.
Carson Wentz first pass that was picked off was a terrible decision when he just heaved up the ball late in the game (they only needed a field goal so it was very odd to see him toss an all or nothing pass). He’s 12th in the PFF overall QB Rankings.
Trevor Siemian is expected to start versus the Chargers Thursday (shoulder). He threw for four scores that one game but in his other three outings he’s registered two scores and three picks.
QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID
Blaine Gabbert is lost so the Niners will turn to --- Colin Kaepernick this week. Colin K’s game was in regression before he was hurt, and he will have precious few weapons to throw to. Colin has a 38 percent completion rate with 11 interceptions on passes 20-yards downfield since 2011. He will face a rejuvenated Bills defense.
Kirk Cousins made a beautiful TD pass in Week 5, but he also suffered an interception that should have been a pick-6 before C.J. Mosley fumbled the ball out of the end zone on the return leading to a touchback. Cousins was under pressure on just 10 of 42 drop backs last week leading to an 81 percent completion rate with a clean pocket (he hit just 33 percent when under pressure). When under pressure, he crumbles.
Brock Osweiler completed four of 18 passes when under pressure in Week 5 and he looked awful. As noted by Jeff Mans, Brock’s footwork is simply off and it’s not allowing him to get into rhythm. Even when he wasn’t blitzed in Week 5 he completed just 11-of-23 pass attempts.
Andy Dalton had a 104.6 QB Rating with 269 yards and two scores in Week 5. It wasn’t near as good as that sounds. Both scores were when they were down 28-0 and Dalton was just chucking. Dalton has just three passing scores in three games though he has been picked just once in four games.
Ryan Tannehill completed 12-of-18 passes for 197 yards and two picks as the offensive line just didn’t block well. Tannehill was under pressure on a whopping 67 percent of his drop backs as he simply had no time to set his feet to read the defense. Hard to blame him for that. He leads the league with a pressure ratio of 43.3 percent this season. Dreadful.
Case Keenum threw just nine passes over 10-yards in Week 5 and he was just 2-for-8 when under pressure. He was picked off twice, didn’t throw a score, and took four sacks. No quarterback is hurt more by his pass catchers as he leads the league with 15 passes dropped.