KERSHAW VS. FERNANDEZ
Clayton Kershaw is set to return today and face Jose Fernandez. What a matchup. How many pitches will Kershaw be allowed to throw in his first game back, and just how healthy is he? Joel Sherman says that a source told him that that Kershaw is not 100 percent recovered from the herniated disk in his back. Jon Heyman reported that Kershaw is still “pretty banged up” and that Clayton is going to “tough it out.” Is Kershaw great enough that he can overcome his physical woes to dominate? We shall see. I never doubt greatness, but it also seems like Kershaw is nowhere near the health required to be a superstar.
Speaking of Fernandez, he’s just not pitching well. Check out the numbers. Fernandez has made 26 starts this season. Let’s take a look at his last seven outings, starts that represent 27 percent of his season long work, Fernandez has been worse than a league average pitcher. Over the seven starts his 11.12 K/9 rate is elite. No hiding that fact. But the rest of his game… (1) Fernandez is 1-4 his last seven games. (2) Fernandez has walked 3.40 batters per nine the last seven. Worse than the league average. (3) Fernandez has a 4.54 ERA the last seven. That’s worse than the league average. (4) Fernandez has a 1.59 WHIP the last seven. That’s worse than the league average. Fact is that he has not been good for the last quarter of his starts. How about this?
Over his last 11 starts Fernandez is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Other than the strikeouts which are massive, for a third of this season Fernandez has been worse than a league average pitcher.
SECOND BASE POWER UPDATE
Yesterday I wrote about the phenomenal power display, the historic display, but the Twins’ Brian Dozier.
He’s not the only second sacker who is ripping it up.
Ryan Schimpf hit 23 homers in 2013 at Double-A.
In 2014 he hit 24 homers at Double and Triple-A.
In 2015 he slugged 23 homers at Double and Triple-A.
It’s hardly surprising that he’s had success with the power this season, but to this level?
Schimpf hit 15 homers in 51 games at Triple-A this season. Wow.
Schimpf has hit 18 homers in 69 games with the Padres this season. Wow #2.
That gives Schimpf 33 homers in 120 games this season. Wow #3
Schimpf has appeared in 69 games this season. Double that for a full season of work, and Schimpf would hit 36 homers with 88 RBI and 80 runs scored. That’s a massive season. Folks, he has a .600 SLG as well. Only one man in baseball is better – David Ortiz at .625. Read that one again.
Now the concerns.
Schimpf is batting .233 this season. He’s not afraid of the walk with 34 in 259 plate appearances. However, he’s struck out 78 times which leads to a pathetic 30.1 percent K-rate. That’s not an acceptable pace. If he had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title that would be the 5th worst in baseball. His swinging strike rate is 11.0 percent as well. You can’t produce a high batting average if you swing and miss so much. Further, the guy has a mere 15 percent line drive rate which is just terrible. When he’s not hitting a homer, he’s not squaring the ball up. Further part two, the guy has a 64.3 percent fly ball rate. That’s INSANELY high. (1) He will never sustain that fly ball pace. (2) It’s amazing he’s batting .233 with such an insane fly ball rate that is nearly double the league average of 34 percent.
The average could plummet at any time.
The power will regress when the fly balls go down.
He doesn’t steal bases (only two steal attempts this season).
He’s been a remarkable waiver-wire addition, no doubt. Can’t keep up this pace though.
I’M ONE OF THE BEST HITTERS IN BASEBALL RIGHT NOW
In 51 games since the All-Star break I’ve hit .365 putting me on pace to set an all-time franchise record for batting average in the second half.
Since the All-Star break I’ve posted a .417 OBP and .466 SLG.
I’ve done all of this after a terribly disappointing first half that saw me hit .227 with one homer and 11 RBI.
I’m Ender Inciarte of the Braves.
Ender was horrific in the first half causing him to be cast aside in many mixed leagues. I don’t know how much of his current run people took advantage of, it probably took a few weeks of hitting after the Break before you even looked his way, but all of a sudden his season long numbers look very similar to his work last season, a virtual impossibility two months ago.
Ender went .303-6-45-73-21 last season with a .747 OPS.
Ender has gone .293-3-27-66-14 with a .734 OPS.
Question is, were you able to take advantage of his second half work that brings his season long numbers right in line with expectations.
HAVE A SEASON KID
Twenty-five year old Hernan Perez has played second base 19 times, third base 80 times and shortstop six times. He wasn’t drafted anywhere. Turns out he should have been.
In 102 games this season the Brewers young righty swinger has crushed it. He’s hit .278, a passable mark. He has a .308 OBP, that’s terrible (below league average). He has a .462 SLG that is a solid number.
It’s more than that.
Perez has hit 13 homers with 30 steals. Wow is right. That’s difference making production from a guy in a mere 327 at-bats.
- There are only seven men in baseball with 30 steals.
- There are only three man in baseball with 13 homers and 30 steals: Jonathan Villar, Eduardo Nunez and Perez.
- Perez has hit nine homers with 20 steals over his last 50 games (since the All-Star Break). That’s tremendous production. He’s also driven in 35 runners and scored 32 times in those 50 games. Toss in a .295/.328/.516 slash line and you have a second half All-Star.
Wow.
CASTELLANOS HEALTH UPDATE
Nick Castellanos hand still isn’t 100 percent, and that throws his outlook the ROTW into doubt. “Friday, after the off day, I’ll start swinging with my regular bat,” Castellanos said. “It’s better, and they said there’s a lot of bridging, but it’s not 100% yet. So there’s going to be some discomfort. But it’s getting through as much discomfort as I can and progressing so when my bone is healed.” Castellanos hopes to return in a week or so, but what will he be ab le to accomplish? Over 20 games in the second half before he was hurt he hit .214 with a .273 wOBA, and that’s just not usable.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).