THE GIOLITO CASE

Lucas Giolito has as much talent as any hurler in baseball that isn’t established at the big league level. He might be the best right-handed prospect in baseball on the bump. The 6’6”, 255 lbs righty has all the talent in the world. The skills are off the charts.

He’s also back in the minor leagues and it’s unclear when he will return.

“It’s back to the drawing board with him,” manager Dusty Baker said.

“The big thing is you have to command off-speed pitches: curveball, changeup,” he said. “Commanding the fastball is a given, but you’re going to get in trouble when you don’t command those pitches. When you can’t throw a curveball for a strike, or a changeup in a hitter’s count, then you get into trouble. And I’ve been dealing with a lot of that.”

Giolito will head to the minors having made three starts with poor results: 4.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, nine walk and five strikeouts in 11.0 innings. Giolito has forgotten how to throw strikes with an ungodly nine walks through 11 frames. Additionally, he’s completely forgotten how to miss bats with a mere five strikeouts (in his start over the weekend he threw 66 pitches and generated one solitary swing and miss). That’s stupefyingly poor work for a youngster with this skill level. Let me refer you to his Player Profile from June 27th, almost exactly a month previous to this piece. “Giolito is worth adding in pretty much every format in the land but note the two factors I mentioned. (1) The walks are a continuing issue. (2) There is no clarity as to how many starts he will make for the Nationals.” 

At this point there’s really a ton of uncertainty with Giolito. Renaldo Lopez is likely to get the call the next time the 5th spot in the rotation is up cause Giolito cannot be recalled for 10-days unless there is an injury. Both Lopez and Giolito may not matter much in a bit anyway as Joe Ross is nearing a return from his shoulder woes and could be back within a couple of weeks to reclaim his roster spot.

Giolito is still an elite talent capable of great things. He’s also a rookie, and they can never be trusted in the fantasy game.

 

THE GLASNOW CASE

Tyler Glasnow has been placed on the DL with shoulder woes. Doesn’t sound like it’s anything major though. "Feel like we caught it early," general manager Neal Huntington said. "That's always good. ... Yet we still don't have a ton of information. The last place he wants to be is on the disabled list," Huntington said. "[But] with our young players, we're going to be conservative, and we're going to do everything in our power. If he's ready on Day 16, great. If he's not, we're going to take the time it's going to take to get healthy, because we need him healthy and effective."

I don’t know if he’s hurt or tired. Remember a few weeks back when Jameson Taillon was placed on the DL with shoulder fatigue? Who could have predicted something like that would have happened to either arm? Wait, I DID – numerous times.

From my Taillon Player Profile. “The guy has never thrown 150-innings in a season and didn’t thrown a single pitch the last two years. I can’t even believe he will be allowed to throw 150 frames this season, can you? Think with your head and not your heart, can you see him throwing 150-innings? Really?”

I warned with Glasnow in this Daily Trends article. “Glasnow has never thrown 145 innings in a season. He’s only thrown 115 innings one time. I would suggest to you that there is little chance he throws more than 160-innings this season, at best. Be cautious with your willingness to go all-in with Glasnow.”

What do you know, they have both spent time on the DL since being promoted.

Furthermore, while Taillon has been better, Glasnow was a disaster in his last outing as he threw three innings allowing two runs, one earned. He also walked three and hit two batters while throwing just 42 strikes in 78 pitches. This was another example of the main issue with Glasnow – the walk. Dare I say he’s simply not ready to pitch at the big league level, no matter how talented he is? In two starts at the big league level he walked five men in 8.1 innings. In his last six starts at the minor league level he walked 24 batters in 35.2 innings. In his last 44 professional innings he’s walked 29 batters or 3.95 nine. That’s a simply terrible mark. Moreover, he’s averaged 5.5 innings his last six starts. Too many walks, too many long innings, not enough innings, and now the inevitable shutdown.

Would could have seen that coming?

These are two more examples of why it is idiotic to depend on rookies in the fantasy game. Take a chance on a youngster? Absolutely. Stash a rookie for months hoping he works out? Likely not a good move. Drop an established big leaguer to take a chance on an unproven youngster? Seems that’s only advisable if your team has no chance and you’re hoping to hit a grand slam. Despite what people continue to insist, and I still here it every day from followers, depending on rookies doesn’t work. Period. You might as well spend your time walking around in the forest looking for a unicorn or trying to identify when the next Sharknado will hit.

THE DE LEON CASE

Jose De Leon will likely be a star one day. He’s an elite talent. The Dodgers seemingly have a need for a starter, or three. So JDL will be up soon, right? Maybe, but likely not in the immediate future. Though he was pitching well, as I noted last week, he was obliterated Monday night at Triple-A: 7 runs, 8 hits, two walks… in 1.1 innings. Would the Dodgers call up JDL after an outing in which he allowed seven runs while garnering four outs?

Make sure that you check a rookies recent performance before you go running to waivers to add him.

IN THE NEWS…

Check out my Player Profile on Alex Bregman.

Check out my Player Profile on David Dahl.

The Cubs picked up Aroldis Chapman in a deal with the Yankees. What does that mean for the Cubs and the Yankees bullpens?

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Jonathan Lucroy has a hit in 3-straight games. He has a walk in 3-straight games. He has a .939 OPS at home this season. He has a .874 OPS at night this season. He’s 5-for-8 against Patrick Corbin in his career.  

FIRST BASE: Mike Napoli takes on Gio Gonzalez with a double, triple, homer and five RBI in 12 at-bats. His last nine games overall he has four homers seven RBI and his home OPS this season is 1.013.

SECOND BASE: Jonathan Schoop has a .289 average and four homers in the month of July. That effort includes a homer and five hits his last three games. Righties are batting .306 with a .783 OPS against Chad Bettis.  

THIRD BASE: Daniel Murphy has a hit in 7-straight games. He has an RBI in 4-straight games. Murphy is at 1.025 on the road in OPS, 1.026 at night and 1.033 against righties. He faces Danny Salazar.

SHORTSTOP: Brad Miller has a .458 SLG against righties this year. He has a .493 mark in July. Bud Norris has allowed four homers his last two starts and 14 runs his last 16.1 innings.  
  
OUTFIELD: Hanley Ramirez is just 10 for 53 against Mike Pelfrey. Buck that BvP trends. Over his last six outings HanRam has five homers and 12 RBI. He also has a .842 OPS at home this season, on yeah, and a 1.124 OPS mark in 16 July outings.

OUTFIELD: Christian Yelich has a .329/.412/.537 slash line against righties. The marks in July are really damn good too (.357/.396/.571). He faces Jerad Eickhoff.

OUTFIELD: Josh Reddick mashes them righties with a .346/.420/.535 line. His work on the road has also been very strong (.324/.400/.450). Nick Martinez had no chance against lefties (.326/.453/.547).

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).