NOT AS GOOD AS YOU THINK
Josh Reddick has a .298 average, .378 OBP and .439 SLG this season. He’s been really good which has led to tons of rumors that the A’s might try to parlay Reddick into a nice return on the trade market.
Of course, per usual, he’s also spent time on the disabled list. The 29 year old lefty swinger of the Athletics is now in his eighth season, and in the first seven campaigns he appeared in 150 games just one time. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to appear in 115 games. The last four seasons his average effort has been 132 games meaning the last four season he’s missed an average of a month of games. This season he’s appeared in 58 of the Athletics 94 games. That means he’s already missed 36 games this season. You think he’s going to play every game the rest of the way? Even if he does, yet again, he going to miss well over a month of games. He cannot be trusted to stay on the field.
Let’s talk skills.
Reddick is a .255 hitter for his career. He’s failed to hit .273 in any of the last four seasons and he’s hit .273 just once in seven years. He’s not gonna hit .298. his line drive rate this season is 20.5 percent. That’s two tenths above his norm. He has a 29.4 percent hard hit rate. That’s just one percent above his career mark. Despite those facts he’s posted a .322 BABIP. The last four years he hasn’t posted a mark of .290 and only once was the mark even .279.
Reddick has hit 20 homers twice. He’s also failed to reach 13 homers in two of the last four seasons. ‘Injuries Ray, injuries.’ Fair, but let’s look at his power stroke this season. Reddick has six homers and nine doubles in 58 games. Give him that pace of production, over 149 games (his total last season), and Reddick would have 15 homers and 23 doubles. That impresses no one. He has a .141 Isolated Power mark which taps in to a player’s raw power. That’s forty points below his career mark. He has a .439 SLG. That’s just four points above his career mark and it would also be his second worst SLG in six years. He’s not really driving the baseball.
Reddick owns a strong .378 OBP. That’s not who he is. Reddick has a career mark of .317. That’s who he is. His previous seven year best is .333. He is walking at the highest rate of his career, 3.3 percent above his career average, but it’s hard to envision him holding on to that pace.
He doesn’t steal bases. He has four this season after swiping 20 bases the last three years.
Let me sum this up.
1 – Reddick really isn’t performing as well as many folks think.
2 – He’s always hurt and that obviously compromises his outlook.
3 – Even if we give him 162 games played his career averages would lead to a .255-20-74-75-8 line. Anyone excited about that?
Reddick, in a 10 or 12-team mixed league, is just a guy. Make no mistake about that.
A SERIES OF SETBACKS
Yu Darvish had Tommy John surgery on March 17th, 2015. He returned to the big leagues triumphantly only to have a setback that forced him back to the DL. He’s back in the fold right now for the Rangers.
Zack Wheeler had TJ surgery March 25, 2015. He’s had so many setbacks I can’t even count at this point (the hope was he would return before the All-Star break. Clearly no. Now the hope is that he will return in late August). Given everything, I’d be surprised if he made five starts this season for the Mets.
Homer Bailey had TJ surgery May 8th, 2015, He was supposed to be back by June. Not so much. On May 1st he had a “slight setback” ruining the initial timeframe. He’s inching to a return now, a month later than expected, as he hopes to make one more minor league start before being promoted to the Reds.
Alex Cobb had TJ surgery May 14th, 2015. The hope was that he would be back in the big leagues. He’s not ready. He failed to make it through two innings in two starts in the minors. He said he was fine. The team said he was fine. Well… he’s been shut down. He will wait seven days with what is being termed “arm fatigue and mechanical issues.” The team is spinning this as just a slight pause, they don’t want to rush Cobb, and maybe that is the actually the case. Still, it’s likely that Cobb won’t return to the big leagues to at least mid-August, if not later. "We want to make sure he gets his full rehab and can work through the process at his pace a little bit," according to manager Kevin Cash.
How many times do you need to see a pitcher returning from Tommy John struggle and have their return date pushed back before you just stop? By that I mean, stop counting on any hurler in his first season back from the surgery. It’s simply illogical to be depending on these guys to bring the hammer for your fantasy squad.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Kurt Suzuki hit .370 with a .395 OBP in 20 games in June. In 11 July games he’s hit .333 with a .366 OBP as he’s driven in seven runs while scoring nine times.
FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer has scored five times his last five games. He’s hitting .292 with a .414 OBP in 13 games in July as he’s scored 12 times. He’s going well. He takes on Justin Verlander with a .338/.440/.535 line with three homers over 84 plate appearances.
SECOND BASE: Starlin Castro faces the piñata named Yovani Gallardo. Castro has hit .390 over 41 at-bats in the matchup. The last six games he’s driven in five RBI and scored six times with four doubles. He’s also batting .297 with a .812 OPS at home.
THIRD BASE: Lonnie Chisenhall is batting .311/.354/.482 against righties this season. He’s hitting .314 in July. He takes on Ian Kennedy with a 5-for-9 line. His last nine starts Ian has allowed 14 homers. Wow.
SHORTSTOP: Troy Tulowitzki is finally hitting with hits in seven of eight games. Over the last 10 outings he has also driven in nine runs. By the way, he has 16 homers and 46 RBI in just 70 games played. He’s hit .429 against Patrick Corbin (6-for-14) and Corbin has permitted six homers his last four outings.
OUTFIELD: Howie Kendrick is hot (I wrote about him yesterday). Kendrick is batting .306 against lefties this season. He’s hitting .287 on the road this season. He’s hitting .418 in July with a 1.092 OPS. He takes on Gio Gonzalez.
OUTFIELD: Stephen Piscotty has hit .283 with a .342 OBP against righties this season. He’s hitting .3598 with a 1.064 OPS in July and over his last four games he’s posted a .547 wOBA with two homers and five RBI.
OUTFIELD: Doug Fister doesn’t throw hard. His last 10 outings he’s allowed nine homers. Khris Davis has hit four homers with six RBI and a .501 wOBA the last five games.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).