Some folks love the idea of peanut butter and jelly. Some love caviar and champagne. Some think ranch dressing goes great with chicken wings. Some think that booze pairs very well with sex. Others like the idea of pairing quarterbacks and wide receivers from the same team. I think four of these five matchups are great. Not sure about the last one though, and that will be the focus of this article.
THE THEORY
The theory goes like this:
If you can pair an elite quarterback with an elite wide receiver you can get massive point totals in any given week. Moreover, if you can add an impressive quarterback and his secondary target, you can still have big levels of success. The bottom line is that if you can add a signal caller and one of his top-2 wideouts, especially if they are in a pass happy offense, you are setting yourself up for lots of success, or so the theory goes.
Some of those combinations are rather obvious.
Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown
Blake Bortles / Allen Robinson
What happens when we step from the theoretical to the practical?
THE ISSUES WITH THE THEORY
There are many issues with this theory that folks seem to minimize. They shouldn’t.
1 – The most obvious issue is health. If either the quarterback or the wideout is injured, how does the other player perform? Just look at what happened when Big Ben was hurt last season with the Steelers. In Weeks 4-7 Ben was out of the lineup. Obviously you lost your elite producing quarterback which hurts plenty. However, you also lost production from Brown. Take a look at what the best wideout in football did in those four games. Brown averaged more than 24 points a game last season in a PPR setup. That means he should have produced 96-97 points in four games. What did Brown produce in the four games that Big Ben missed? Brown didn’t produce 20 points in any effort and he produced less than 50 points total in the four games. In fact, he was the 26th best PPR wideout when Roethlisberger was out. The most stable, consistent, high end position player in football – excluding the quarterback – fell from 1st to 26th at his position when Roethlisberger was out.
If one of the two players is down with an injury, can the other player keep their value as high as you hope/expect? That seems unlikely.
2 – What happens if the weather turns bad? You cannot tell me that you haven’t watch a game and though to yourself – crap. Be it because of a driving rainstorm, because of snow, because of shivering cold or because of a windstorm… the weather can be a huge opponent to overcome. When the weather turns ugly teams often batten down the hatches and run the ball and use a very controlled passing attack. What if the weather turns bad for your duo?
3 – What if the club with your duo faces a tough defense that week? If the defense is stout against the pass you’re exposing yourself, twice, to that unit. How is that going to turn out? What if your guys are facing a potential shutdown corner likely Marcus Peters, Josh Norman or Patrick Peterson? If that cornerback can shut down the wideout, or at least limit him from “going off,” you will have to struggle to overcome a moderate day from your wide receiver. Additionally, if that wideout can’t get going are the odds high that the quarterback will find his rhythm and post big numbers? Pretty small one would think.
4 – What happens if the score gets out of hand? If your team is ahead 24-3 at halftime perhaps the team got to that score because your QB/WR went nuts in the first half. Perhaps the score is that way after a kick return for a score and two short drives that resulted in plunges into the end zone from the backer inside the 5-year line. With the game well in hand, will the QB/WR team continue to push the ball through that air? Maybe, maybe not. Game score and situation play a large part in how players are utilized. Teams are trying to win football games, not help your fantasy squad.
5 – What happens during the bye week of the team that you have your duo? Can you overcome the loss of your QB and WR in the same week? Perhaps, but it’s awful likely that if you lose a top-10 QB and a top-20 WR in the same week that it’s going to be very difficult for you to emerge with a win that week when the club is resting.
THE THEORY IN PRACTICE - PLAYOFFS
Let’s take a look at a few random examples of how elite level pass catchers, and the men who threw them the football, performed during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16)
EXAMPLE 1
From Week 1 to Week 14 Aaron Rodgers was easily a top-10 QB, most likely top-5 in virtually all scoring setups. In Week 15 he threw for 204 yards, a score and a pick. In Week 16 he threw for 151 yards a score and a pick. That’s semi-final and finals week. Since he stunk so did his receivers. His lead wideout, Randall Cobb, caught five for 40 yards in Week 15 and three passes for 15 yards in Week 16.
EXAMPLE 2
Tom Brady threw for a total of 632 yards and three scores his last three games. Brandon LaFell caught seven passes for 115 yards as the lead wideout on this team. Even Rob Gronkowski didn’t get it done. Note that the tight end, really Brady’s top “wideout” with the injuries they were dealing with, scored but one time his last three games and failed to reach 55 yards twice (once he didn’t even get to 20-yards).
EXAMPLE 3
Ben Roethlisberger, in Week 16 – Championship Week – threw for 220 yards, no scores and two picks. It was one of just three games in which he didn’t throw a score. It was one of two times he failed to thrown for 260 yards. His total of 220 passing yards was more than 100-yards below his season long average of 328 a game. Antonio Brown, Mr. Bullet Proof, caught seven balls for 61 yards. Brown’s point total that game was only the second time in his last eight games that he failed to record 16 PPR points in a week.
EXAMPLE 4
Week 16, Championship Week, saw Eli Manning throw for a mere 234 yards with one score and three picks. One of the main factors leading to Eli’s down effort was the fact that Odell Beckham was suspended that game. In this instance the wide out going down killed the quarterback.
CONCLUSION
So let me ask you a final series of questions.
Can you win with a QB/WR from the same team? Yes.
Can you post huge numbers in a given with a QB/WR duo? Yes.
Can you be dealt a crushing defeat with a QB/WR duo if the weather is bad? Yes.
Can you be dealt a crushing defeat with a QB/WR duo if score is out of hand? Yes.
Can you be dealt a crushing defeat with a QB/WR duo if they are facing an elite defense? Yes.
Can you be dealt a crushing defeat with a QB/WR duo if either player is out with an injury? Yes.
Can you be dealt a crushing defeat with a QB/WR duo during the bye week when they are both out? Yes.
In the end, it just seems wiser to me to spread you risk across multiple teams. The odds would seem to clearly favor splitting up your quarterback and wide receivers when possible.