STARTING PITCHER REVIEW
R.A. Dickey is only 6-9 but he has dropped his ERA to 3.94 and his WHIP to 1.30. Those are league average numbers, so let’s not get at all excited. Still, over his last seven games he’s posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, numbers that play. During that run though he has a mere 6.18 strikeouts per nine that is a poor mark, and that 3.09 BB/9 rate is just a league average number. Bottom line here is that Dickey is just a guy, but one if you’re looking to as a streaming option you likely won’t be hurting yourself too badly.
Brandon Finnegan is just 4-7 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season in what has been a very disappointing first half. He’s taken the ball 18 times which is heartening, but even with all those starts he’s barely at 100 frames with 101.1 innings pitched. Despite a big arm his K/9 rate is subpar at 6.48 per nine, and don’t even get me started on that hideous 4.71 BB/9 rate that is behind only Francisco Liriano as the worst in baseball. He had been pitching moderately well for about seven starts before his last two trips to the bump when he turned into a stack of kindling in a 1,100 degree oven. His last two outings, over 7.1 innings, Brandon allowed six homers, nine walks and 13 runs. #DumpsterFire
Gio Gonzalez is making strides. Over his last two outings he’s allowed seven runs in 12.0 innings. Hey, it’s something. Still hard to envision that he’s going to lose his starting spot to Lucas Giolito.
A.J. Griffin has made nine starts for the Rangers, wrapped around injury. In those nine stars he’s struck out 45 batters in 47 innings. He’s just not that guy (career: 7.65 per nine). Sorry. He’s walked 3.83 batters per nine. He’s also not that guy (career: 2.54). Even with all the strikeouts, his 2.25 K/BB ratio is well below his 3.01 career rate. So, he’s been pretty darn lucky to post a 1.21 WHIP this season, ditto his 3.06 ERA (check out his 4.44 SIERA and 4.73 xFIP). He’s also been fortunate with an 8.3 HR/FB ratio (career 11.4). I’m really not a fan if you cannot tell.
Dallas Keuchel has made 18 starts with a 6-9 record and a 5.02 ERA. Toss in a 1.40 WHIP with a 1.19 HR/9 and DK has struggled to be relevant. Hell, he’s not even league average. But, the worm might finally be turning – a little bit. Over his last four outings Dallas has thrown four quality starts. He hasn’t been close to being great, and he’s allowed five homers in those four games, but he’s shown improvement: 3.20 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. He’s also gone 3-0. There isn’t a reasonable expectation that he will return to the levels of the last two seasons, but that doesn’t mean he can’t move along at the levels he’s shown the last three weeks which would make him usable in nearly every format.
John Lackey is a 37 year old righty for the Cubs who has won seven games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and has 111 strikeouts in 110.2 innings. That is an excellent run. Period. Nothing at all negative to say about that. But you know me, and there is a but… over his last three outings Lackey has a 7.56 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and a mere 1.40 K/BB ratio. It’s just three games, but when you’re 37 years old, and had been pitching over your head, you have to admit to some minor concern if you’re being honest.
Mike Leake was one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball from 2013-15. Not exciting by any means, but extremely consistent. This year, it doesn’t look like he has been that guy with a 5-7 record and 4.33 ERA. Alas, he really hasn’t been much different. (1) He has a 1.23 WHIP. His career mark is 1.27. (2) He has a 5.71 K/9 mark. His career rate is 6.03. (3) His BB/9 rate is 1.47. His career mark is 2.21. (4) His HR/9 mark is 1.21. His career mark is 1.12. (5) His BABIP is .287. His career mark is .288. (6) He has a 1.97 GB/FB ratio. His career mark is 1.77. He’s basically the same guy as always folks.
Jake Odorizzi has three wins and a 4.33 ERA. People are bitching to me daily about him. I get it. Still, you need to get this. (1) He has an 8.49 K/9 ratio. His career mark is 8.43. (2) His walk rate is 2.98 per nine. His career mark is 2.85. (3) His 1.26 WHIP is just three hundredths above his career mark. (4) His 0.93 GB/FB ratio is better than his career mark of 0.79. (5) His batted ball usage is similar. This year he has a 37 percent pull rate, 33 percent center field rate and a 30 percent opposite field rate. His career marks are 38, 33 and 29 percent. (6) The only number that is significantly off is Odorizzi’s 1.44 HR/9 rate that is significantly above his 1.10 career mark. I would expect that mark to recede given four years with a HR/FB mark of 9.0 or lower. This year the mark is 9.7 percent. My question to you – what were you expecting from Odorizzi?
ALEX COBB OUTING
Alex Cobb made his first outing Wednesday at High-A and the results were poor. He only threw eight of 21 pitches for strikes and walked two of the first three batters he faced. He’s physically fine, and that’s the most important fact to keep in mind, but not a great start to his return. Sounds like the plan is for Cobb to make four or five more starts in the minors before he is recalled to the majors as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Tyler Flowers has a .281/.354/.483 slash line against righties this season. He has a .913 OPS at night this season. He has two homers his last six games. Jason Hammel has lost his last three outings allowing 19 hits and 16 runs over a mere 15.2 innings.
FIRST BASE: Freddie Freeman has hit .455 with two homers in 11 at-bats against Jason Hammel. He has a .848 OPS on the road. He has a .856 OPS at night. Since the start of June, 34 games, he has a 1.053 OPS.
SECOND BASE: Robinson Cano has gone 4-for-11 with a homer against Danny Duffy. He is working on a 5-games hitting streak and has a hit in nine of 10 games. He also has a .932 OPS at night and a 1.003 OPS on the road.
THIRD BASE: Adam Morgan has allowed a .315/.352/.535 OPS to righties. How bad is that? Mark Reynolds has a .878 OPS at home this season and he has six homers his last 31 games.
SHORTSTOP: Elvis Andrus has hits in 4-of-5 games and has scored five times his last six games. Tyler Duffey has been mashed by righties this season with a.311 average, .348 OBP and .534 SLG.
OUTFIELD: Jayson Werth has a .407 OBP in July, following a .438 mark in June. He faces Bartolo Colon whom he has produced a .462/.611/.615 line against in 18 plate appearances.
OUTFIELD: Coco Crisp has hit .350 against Doug Fister (20 ABs). Crisp has scored 15 times, has driven in 15 runs and is batting .314 with a .407 OBP and .557 SLG.
OUTFIELD: Josh Reddick has a massive .352/.438/.484 slash line against righties and his OPS on the road is .922. Doug Fister has pitched well this season but he has allowed six homers his last four outings.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).