Clay Buchholz isn’t good. The world keeps waiting for him to be. You’re going to be disappointed. His latest start lasted five innings as he allowed three runs, and two homers, to the White Sox. He owns a 5.83 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.21 K/9 ratio and 3.93 BB/9 this season. That level of performance would lead to waivers in a 20-team mixed league, so why I keep getting questions about him?
Patrick Corbin has thrown at least 6.1 innings each of his last four starts. Three of those four outings are quality starts with the one outlier being four runs allowed. He’s rounding into form. Over those four starts he owns a 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and has posted a ground ball rate of 54 percent. I see no reason why he cannot pitch at least that well the rest of the way. Buy low now, there’s still plenty of time to do so as most are extremely frustrated with the lefty.
Scott Kazmir has allowed three runs or less in 6-straight starts. Oh how numbers can be deceiving. Despite that stretch of limiting runs check this out. In three of his last four outings he’s failed to throw more than five innings, and in those four outings the ERA is 4.95 and the WHIP is 1.60. The strikeouts are there, 87 in 83.2 innings, but the lack of innings and the uneven work are a big concern. There’s also the elevated pitch counts that are occurring, partially due to all the walks. After averaging 2.64 walks per nine the last three seasons that mark has climbed to 3.44 per nine this season and its 4.05 his last four starts.
Collin McHugh has looked pretty sharp the last couple of times out after yet another hiccup. In those two outings against the Cardinals and Angels, Collin has allowed three runs, three walks and has produced 12 punchouts over 13.2 innings. I know you don’t trust him, and I cannot blame you for feeling that way, but I’m telling you there is still something here. The big issue is the big fly. The last two seasons the mark has been 0.80 per nine. This season the mark is way up at 1.17. The fly ball rate is up about three percent this season, and the homer to fly ball ratio is up about two points from last season. Neither number is bad by any means though (37.4 and 11.1). Just some slight reduction there and things improve. Note that his SIERA is 0.02 down from last season and his xFIP is only up 0.08 from last season yet somehow his raw ERA is up 0.81. Doesn’t make much sense.
James Paxton has a 3.34 ERA and 10.31 strikeouts per nine. Those are impressive numbers. Are those are the only numbers anyone is looking at with this oft-injured one. Paxton is walking 2.73 batters per nine, a solid but far from elite number. His WHIP is 1.62. That is pathetic. His .310 batting average against is scary bad, but it is built upon a far too high to believe .404 BABIP mark. Clearly, it’s coming down. I do love the 51 percent ground ball rate, and that has helped to keep his HR/9 rate down to 0.91. This is a skilled hurler no doubt, but here is the rub. In 2014 he threw 87 innings. In 2015 he threw 102 innings as injury after injury has conspired against him. He’s already up to 77.1 innings this season so it’s completely fair to ask how many bullets does he have left? #Caution
Blake Snell has made three starts this season with a 2.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He’s walked seven batters in 15 innings continuing his trend of being unable to locate his pitches leading to too many walks. It’s pretty simple. It doesn’t matter how much stuff he has, until he starts to limit the walk he’s going to be a dicey play. All told this season he’s walked 35 batters in 78 innings leading to a 4.03 per nine mark this season. There’s no chance he’s keeping his ERA under three with a mark like that, don’t care how great the stuff is.
Tyler Wilson has made 11 starts amongst his 14 outings this season for the Orioles. Right off the top, I’ll give it to you straight. If you’re using him in mixed leagues it better only be as a streaming option in the right matchup. That means he only starts on the road where he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over six outings (five starts). Even so though, he’s striking out less than five batters per nine so he’s a negligible play even in a good matchup as there is none of that proverbial upside. None. The 1.22 WHIP is there because he is only walking 2.10 batters per nine, but he doesn’t have the stuff to miss bats, isn’t an extreme ground baller (45 percent this season) and therefore isn’t worth much of anything in fantasy.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Willson Contreras has hit two homers and driven in five runs in five games with the Cubs. Wei-Ying Chen has allowed a .769 OPS against righties this season.
FIRST BASE: C.J. Cron takes on Kendall Graveman, he of the .302/.336/.460 slash line against righties. Over his last 10 starts Graveman has also allowed a whopping 10 big flies.
SECOND BASE: Dustin Pedroia mashes James Shields with a .293/.349/.431 slash line with two homers and 11 runs scored over 63 plate appearances. Shields has allowed 32 runs, thirty-two, his last four starts.
THIRD BASE: Martin Prado is batting .321 in June and .320 on the year. He’s ripped up lefties this season with a .373 average and .441 OBP. In limited work against Jon Lester he’s gone 6-for-10.
SHORTSTOP: Asdrubal Cabrera has two homers his last two games and three in his last 10. He faces Matt Wisler who has lost four of his last five starts. Wisler has allowed 15 runs over his last 14.2 innings and seven, count them seven, home runs in three games.
OUTFIELD: Melky Cabrera has 14 hits in 25 at-bats against Rick Porcello leading to a .560 average and 1.433 OPS. Melky had a homer and four RBI yesterday and is batting .317 with a .917 OPS in June.
OUTFIELD: Ichiro Suzuki is batting .394 at home. Ichiro is batting .374 at night. Ichiro is batting .400 in June. Ichiro is batting .350 this season. Ichiro is batting .339 in 56 at-bats against Jon Lester.
OUTFIELD: Ben Zobrist has hit .375 with a .957 OPS against Wei-Yin Chen over 45 plate appearances. Zobrist is batting .347 at home with a .980 OPS and he’s been sharp against lefties as well (.310/.410/.451).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).