Should I pick up Shelby Miller, Cody Reed, or Anthony Desclafani for Aaron Nola?
@andyswaisgood

Let me link o’ rama this sucker.

My thoughts on Miller are in this Daily Trends piece.

My thoughts on Reed can be found in this Ray’s Ramblings piece.

My thoughts on Desclafani can be found in this Mailbag piece.

As for Nola, it’s been an off the rails, hide the women and children, drink 11 shots to forget your name kind of two weeks for the righty as Nola has a 15.83 ERA and 3.00 ERA over his last three starts covering 9.2 innings. If he’s hurt, then we can explain this struggles. If he’s healthy, and I’m not seeing injury chatter, what is the issue? It’s called regression. Instead of falling into the ‘I’m only paying attention to 12 days instead of 12 weeks’ pull back for a second. Nola has a terrific 9.75 K/9 rate. He has an impressive 2.26 BB/9 rate. He has a solid 1.21 WHIP. Do you know how many hurlers can match those three numbers (minimum 65 innings pitched)? The answer is six: Nola, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Max Scherzer, Drew Smyly and Noah Syndergaard. Let’s add in Nola’s 55.1 percent ground ball rate. How many hurlers have gone 9.75, 2.26, 1.21 and 55.1? The answer is one: Nola.

Don’t give up on Aaron Nola just yet.

Should I drop Addison Russell for Zack Cozart? 10 team h2h weekly.
@AbsolutVaccaNY

Russell started off great but he has stunk of late. Over the last 18 games, the month of June, Addison has hit .211 with a .308 OBP and .368 SLG. Not a single one of those numbers are league average. The strikeouts are also scary bad at the moment with 57 in 44 games. That’s just not going to fly, and it’s not going to lead to a solid batting average.

Cozart stinks too. On the surface he’s surely better than Russell (13 more runs, five more homers, .047 point better batting average), but… Cozart isn’t very good. I know he’s on pace for a whopper of a season (.284-25-70-85), but here’s what you need to know. (1) He won’t reach any of those numbers. (2) His current batting average is only four points below his career OBP. (3) He’s never hit more than 15 homers. He’s not going to hold on to his 14.3 percent HR/FB ratio given his 8.3 percent career mark. (4) For his career his slash line is .249/.289/.390. Do you know what the marks are his last 29 games? The SLG is still up at .505, stupid high really, but the average is down to .234 and the OBP is down to .317. The regression is underway.

Russell is a better talent. 
Russell is more valuable with the glove qualifying at two positions (2B, SS).

I would hold personally Russell though I admit that in a league that is this thin, it’s extremely hard to wait on a guy who stinks at the moment so you might be better served going with Cozart unless the rest of your club is producing. You can always run to the waiver-wire to add another guy anyway.

Would you drop Jurickson Profar for Aledmys Diaz in a 12 team 5x5 keeper (w/ OBP)?
@JasonCioffi

Just like the case of Cozart above, the situation with Diaz is one that appears solid on the surface but is questionable the deeper you dig. Diaz has been a fantasy star given his non-existent draft day cost with a .303-8-33-45 line with a .833 OPS. Those are impressive numbers indeed. However, since the start of May (44 games) Diaz is batting .251 with a .314 OBP and .371 SLG with a .291 wOBA. Those are replacement level numbers. Since the calendar has flipped to June (16 games) the numbers have sunken even lower (.210/.315/.274). Folks, he’s stopped hitting.

I will gladly roster Profar over Diaz. Not only is Profar the better talent, but he’s also hitting a robust .345.374/.517 the last 22 games with three homers and 16 runs scored. He’s crushing Diaz right now.

Roto OBP, trade away Danny Valencia for Rajai Davis? Could use more steals.
@JR9779

Valencia is rolling along with a Hall of Fame slash line of .330/.375/.546. He’s not that guy, not in any of those three categories, but that doesn’t take away from a rock star start. Most don’t seem to realize though that Valencia will turn 32 this year. He’s never been a daily player. He’s struggled to hit righties, something he’s certainly improved upon this season (.299/.345/.460) and last (.285/.325/.556). Sum it all up for a guy who hits the ball very hard and Danny has the look of a stable, corner infield option. I can’t think he’s a .300+ hitter so that number will fall, but he should be able to push for top-10 status at third base in the counting categories.

Davis is a terrible OBP option. Always has been. For his career the mark has been .317, a completely league average number. He currently owns a .332 OBP which would be the best mark in seven years, and it’s still not a good number. Davis is also batting .264, five points off his career level. His .418 SLG is right on par with his mark the last two seasons. He has seven homers but he’s 35 years old and has never hit 10 homers in a season (his current HR/FB ratio is more than double his career rate). Alas, he directly hits your need of speed. Davis has stolen 21 bases, the second most in baseball, and in 6-of-7 seasons he’s stolen at least 34 bases.

The trade works for you based on your need but you are paying a very high price to get those steals and not “winning” the deal unless your only goal is simply the thefts.

What ya think about Alex Gordon, turn this unforgettable season around? Need some OF help, have Trayce Thompson.
@RyanJDivis

I honestly don’t know. We’re talking a lot of time off and multiple injuries for Gordon who is nearing a return from a wrist injury (he hopes to be back this weekend). The 32 year old outfielder has hit just .211 with a .650 OPS this season and really has never found his footing. Slowing he has been, sure, but outright failure like we’ve seen this season is unlikely to be perpetuated for the solid all-around performer. Keep an eye on his whiff rate which has been under 23 percent every year of his career prior to this season (30.1 percent).

Thompson has stopped hitting. I broke down his situation in this Big 3 video.

I don’t know who else is out there to give you some support for Trayce, but it’s likely that Gordon is as good a risk to take as any option you will find on waivers.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).