Patrick Corbin has a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Those are awful numbers. He’s tossed two quality starts his last four outings, but over his last five games he’s gone 1-3 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He’s just not getting it done. Gotta say I’m very disappointed at his performance this season. The strikeouts are down to 6.88 per nine, a 4-year low, while his 2.75 BB/9 rate is a 4-year high. As concerning as those falls is the significant increase in his homer rate which was 0.90 the last two campaigns before the mark spiked to 1.38 this season. Still generating grounders with a career best 1.83 GB/FB ratio and 52 percent ground ball rate which offers some hope. I wouldn’t be afraid to kick the tires on the nearly 27 year old lefty if I was in a deep league, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him at the moment.
Sonny Gray – OK, I’m going to cheat and just point you to my Daily Dive Video. I know, lazy reporting. Shame on me.
Jeremy Hellickson all of a sudden has a 4.46 ERA as it’s starting to get ugly. The Phillies righty has allowed 11 runs, 14 hits (four homers) and six walks over his last 12 innings. Folks, I warned you. “Jeremy Hellickson is J.A.G. as in “Just A Guy.’ It certainly doesn’t look like it now, not with the WHIP and strikeout rate, but I see nothing going on there that makes sense.”
Nate Karns is 5-2 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Those numbers say waiver-wire, as does his poor 4.18 BB/9 rate (it’s not “poor” it’s really terrible). So why note Karns in this piece? First, he has 75 strikeouts in 71 innings. Second, he’s been effective at home with a 3.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Third, he’s murder on lefties with an impressive .211/.305/.280 slash line. If he faces a lefty heavy lineup (A) the manager of the other club isn’t paying attention and (B) you will want to start Karns.
Ian Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last season with a 9.30 K/9 mark. This year, his first with the Royals, Ian owns a 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.34 K/9 mark. That’s pretty similar, ain’t it? Let’s compare those numbers to his career marks: 3.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.31 K/9. Again, more of the same. Unfortunately, he’s been off his game his last three outings: 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP though he still owns a 8.37 K/9 rate. The fact is this – Kennedy is the same hurler he has always been. Too good early, too spotty of late, but taken in total his 13 starts leave his numbers nearly exactly where everyone should have expected them to be.
If I get one more damn question about what is wrong with Corey Kluber… Yes, his ERA is 4.23. Yes, that would be a 4-year high. Yes, it’s miles above the 3.49 mark he owns for his career (coincidently he posted a 3.49 mark last year). Yes, he has a 9.03 K/9 rate that is a 3-year low. It’s still more than a batter per inning and is only four tenths off his career rate. There is nothing wrong. (1) He is striking out a batter per inning. (2) He is walking 1.92 batters per nine, an elite mark. (3) His 4.70 K/BB rate is two hundredths off his career rate and is the 13th best mark in baseball in 2016. (4) Kluber has a 1.07 WHIP which is below his 1.15 career mark. His 1.07 rate is the 17th best in baseball. (5) He has a 1.46 GB/FB ratio, four hundredths above his career mark. (6) Kluber has a 48.4 percent ground ball rate, the best mark of his career. (7) Kluber has a 0.77 HR/9 rate, three hundredths below his career rate. Again, there is nothing wrong with Kluber.
Collin McHugh is 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Those numbers scream out waiver-wire. However, it might be a mistake if he is on waivers. McHugh has a 3.65 K/BB ratio which is above his 3.38 career mark. He is also striking out 8.50 batters per nine with a 2.33 walk rate per nine mark, two numbers that better the
marks he posted last season in his breakout campaign (7.56 and 2.34). It’s been rough of late, he’s allowed nine runs his last three starts leading to a 5.17 ERA, but overall there is a better pitcher here than his fantasy numbers suggest. Even though he’s struggled for consistency, he’s allowed more than four runs just a single time in 13 outings, so it’s more he’s getting dinked and dunked to death than blasted mercilessly when he struggles. Still a mixed league option as a depth play.
Jimmy Nelson was blasted for eight runs, six earned, in his last outing. That’s the second time in three outings that he’s allowed six runners to cross home plate, and with those two outings people are quickly moving on from Nelson. If you’re in a 10-team league you can, so many options to turn to on the waiver-wire there, but if you’re in a league that is deeper than that I would suggest some patience. Even with the bombings his ratios are still pretty much league average with a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and that’s after getting hammered of late. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really taken any step forward from last season and his walk rate is up even higher at 3.81 free passes per nine (3.30 last season). Until he does a better job of limiting the walk it won’t matter if the rest of his game intrigues.
Chris Sale is struggling. I know, who thought it possible? Overall Sale is 11-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, so if you just woke up from a three month nap you would think he was performing at peak levels. Well, maybe not. For the year his strikeout rate is down to 8.54, and though that was a conscious decision to try and induce more contact, the rate is more than two full batters off the rates he posted each of the last two seasons. If that was all that concerned, you could live with it. However, there’s more. Recently Sale has not pitched well at all with decidedly terrible numbers his last five starts: 6.07 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 1.82 homers per nine and 3.03 walks per nine. That’s simply terrible work. Still he’s posted 31 strikeouts over 29.2 innings, and this is likely just a leveling off of the numbers for Sale who has still be excellent overall. Keep a close eye on his next start though as Sale has allowed five homers his last three games as batters are hammering his mistakes.
Adam Wainwright is 5-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. That’s simply awful work for a hurler of his stature. Waino also has a mere 6.48 K/9 mark leaving him with a 6.46 K/9 rate over his last 112.2 innings. Where it the arm that posted a mark of at least eight strikeouts per nine from 2009 to 2013? Wainwright has also walked 2.34 batters per nine and that would mark the first time since 2012 that he posted a mark above 1.98. Unlike Sale though, things are trending up for Wainwright. In each of his last three outings he’s tossed a quality start, and he’s posted a QS in in five of six outings. He’s also struck out 21 batters his last 20 innings while not allowing a homer. Things are clearly moving in the right direction for Adam, but I’m not ready to suggest that folks should be expecting the “old” Wainwright the rest of the way.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).