HOW IS THIS HAPPENING?

Marco Estrada has a 2.41 ERA and 0.98 WHIP pitching like he thinks he’s an elite starter.

Estrada also leads baseball with a .167 batting average against. Does that pass the smell test to you? Me neither. Estrada has always been hard to hit, check out his .227 batting average against for his career, but this is just getting stupid now. Since the start of last season batters are hitting .192 against Estrada. Batters have hit .205 off Clayton Kershaw in his career. Read that again. Since the start of last season Marco Estrada has held batters to fewer base hits than Clayton Kershaw has in his career. That makes sense on no planet.

Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a 48 percent career homer to fly ball ratio (the mark is 48.5 percent this season). Fewer fly balls end up as hits than any other type of batted ball. Still, that doesn’t explain the lack of base hits of late, not in the least.

Estrada has held batters to a 15.4 percent line drive rate the last two seasons. The league average is 20 percent, and Estrada had a mark over 18 percent entering last season, but there is that microscopic mark his last 45 outings. That’s just not a sustainable pace.

Estrada has a .255 BABIP for his career. Remember, home runs aren’t counted in BABIP, and that has helped Estrada to keep this mark down. All the fly balls help to keep the BABIP down as well. Still, when he led baseball last season with a mark of .216 you knew that there were going to be more base hits in 2016. Well, there haven’t been as Estrada has lowered the BABIP to .191. That level just isn’t possible. In fact, no pitcher the last five years, other than Estrada, has posted a mark under .220. There’s simply no way the number will stay at .191, and even that .216 is historically impossible to repeat. Uh huh, that makes sense.

Speaking of the home run…

Due to all those fly balls his homer per nine mark is 1.31. That’s a really high mark. In each of the past four seasons the mark has been at least 1.17. This year the rate is just 0.84. It’s going up folks. Not just because of all the fly balls, but because of the HR/FB ratio. For his career the mark is 10.8 percent. From 2010-14 the mark was at least 10.3 percent each season. Last year he posted the best mark of his career at 8.7 percent. That’s not a sustainable pace for him. So this season he’s gone out and posted a mark of 7.4 percent. Uh huh, that makes sense.

Don't get me started about his stupid success with the changeup.

The walks have been an issue. Estrada has kept his walk rate under 2.85 each of the previous five seasons. This year the mark is 3.50 batters per nine, nearly a full batter above his career rate of 2.60. How is he walking so many more batters yet seeing his numbers have improved overall? Uh huh, that makes sense.

Check out the following. The numbers listed are from 2015, 2015 and then his career level.

 

ERA

SIERA

xFIP

2015

3.13

4.64

4.93

2016

2.41

4.50

4.68

Career

3.81

3.84

4.14

 

So while his ERA has been under his career level and in the two’s since the start of last season at 2.92, check out the advanced measures that suggest that he’s pitched worse than his career level, by a lot, and way worse than the league average arm.

So this is what we are left with. The options.

1 – Estrada is an elite hurler. Pretty sure that ain’t the truth.

2 – Estrada is able to do something only a minute amount of players do – perform outside the norm of not only the expected but of reality. Every once in a while something happens that defies reasonable explanation. Maybe that’s what is happening right now with Estrada. But eventually, when an outlier occurs, it’s only a matter of time before the gods of regression rear their ugly heads with a vengeance.

3 – Estrada is in line for a significant course correction.

I know that the above tells me, it shouts to me that Estrada cannot be trusted, isn’t this good, and should be dealt now at his high point. Of course, I could be wrong. Perhaps he’s going to be able to continue to do something that defies explanation, it does happen, but I prefer to go with the 95 percent certainty that it’s all about to fall apart for Estrada.

For more players that I would sell high on see the article I wrote yesterday.

TIM ANDERSON PLAYER PROFILE… for the rookie shortstop who was called up today by the White Sox.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Brian McCann is mister BvP against Mike Pelfrey (.465/.549/.791, two homers, 11 RBI in 51 plate appearances).

FIRST BASE: Paul Goldschmidt has six hits and four RBI his last four games. He also owns a 1.088 OPS with nine homers in 23 home games. Righties crush Justin Nicolino like he’s a batting practice pitcher with a .301 average and .353 OBP.

SECOND BASE: Robinson Cano hit two homers Thursday. Over his last three games he’s scored four times while producing seven hits. Derek Holland is the opposition and Cano has blasted him (.372/.400/.628 with two homers, nine RBI in 45 plate appearances).  

THIRD BASE: Over his last seven starts Hector Santiago has a 6.75 ERA and 1.56. Ugh. Lonnie Chisenhall is batting .333/.440/.611 in limited work against lefties and over his last 16 games he has hit .340 with a .389 OBP and .580 SLG against everyone.

SHORTSTOP: Jose Iglesias is batting .385 with a .967 OPS his last eight games. He’s taking on CC Sabathia whom he’s hitting .500 against (8-for-16).
 
OUTFIELD: Andrew McCutchen has four hits and three runs his last three games. He has hit .545 with a homer against Michael Wacha (22 ABs). Wacha has allowed 21 runs his last 19 innings.

OUTFIELD: Charlie Blackmon is batting .304 with a .854 OPS against righties (he faces Andrew Cashner who he is hitting .316 with a .929 OPS against over 20 plate appearances). Blackmon is also batting .316 with a .917 OPS at home this season.  

OUTFIELD: Lefties have been having their way with Bud Norris batting .300 with a .425 OBP. Dexter Fowler has a 1.050 OPS on the road this season. He’s also posted a .422 OBP and .933 OPS against righties this season.  

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).