CORREA DISAPPOINTING?
I had multiple folks respond negatively to a Carlos Correa tweet last night saying they felt like he was overhyped, he wasn’t living up to expectations and that they were disappointed that they wasted a first round selection on him. REALLY? I thought it was just one guy, but then multiple folks chimed in. Here is my response to those of you that believe he’s been disappointing.
YOU’RE NUTS.
Correa is 21 years old.
Correa has appeared in 159 big league games to this point of his career. He’s batting .270, a somewhat boring number, but the rest of his game has been outstanding: 30 homers, 100 RBI, 80 runs and 22 steals.
Again – that’s a 21 year old shortstop who has gone 30/20 with 100 RBI over 159 games. You are seriously going to tell me that you aren’t happy with that? If you do feel that way you have to look yourself in the mirror and take a long, hard look at what you see. If you set expectations at a level higher than that then the disappointment is totally on you, not Correa. I mean seriously folks.
In 2016 Correa has appeared in 60 games. His current pace, over an entire season, would equate to the following fantasy line: .254-21-84-73-21. So, again, you’re going to tell me that a 20/20 shortstop is a disappointment to you?
‘But Ray, he’s not been a first round performer.’
Fair point BUT, again, you’re just not facing reality.
Of the top-15 players taken at the draft each year roughly 35-40 percent of them end the season as a top-15 performer. That means that roughly five or six of the top-15 players drafted will return top-15 value. That means 60-65 percent of first rounders fail to live up to expectations. Usually that failure has to do with injury, sometimes though it is poor performance. We’re just over a third of the way into the season, so there is still soooooooooooooooo long to go for any player to tear a knee ligament, break a foot or to go on a hot streak, so to say that any player is a disappoint misses the fact that we play a 162 game season in baseball. You think you’re disappointed if you took Correa in the first round? How would you feel if you took Giancarlo Stanton?
Regardless, when you take a 21 year old as the foundation of your team you are accepting a huge level of variability. You’re trying to hit a home run. If you aren’t aware that you might strike out in such a scenario, again, that’s totally on you.
Look in the mirror if you’re disappointed in Correa.
EXCITED ABOUT WILLSON CONTRERAS?
The Cubs have four of the top-6 arms in baseball in WHIP, and their team WHIP of 1.03 is amazingly low and leads baseball. The Cubs also lead baseball in ERA with an impossibly low 2.56 mark. They also have the best record in baseball at 41-17. Miguel Montero and David Ross deserve credit for helping those arms to get there. For some reason folks seem to overlook the fact that the most important part of the backstops job is to work with the pitching staff. Hitting is secondary.
I mention this fact cause I’m starting to see questions about star prospect Willson Contreras of the Cubs (yes, his name has two “L’s” in it), who is usually ranked 1st or 2nd amongst all prospects at the position. The Cubs manager, Joe Maddon, is flaming the fire. “I’ve heard nothing but good stuff. You’ll see him here at some point [this year], I’m certain of that.” But realize that after making that statement, the only one that everyone is looking at, realize that Maddon also said exactly what I wrote above. “The big thing with us is you can see our pitching staff’s doing so well, and how much do our catchers have to do with that? There are some veteran catchers back there now that can really help pitchers.”
So despite batting .346 with nine homers and 39 RBI over the course of 49 games at Triple-A, it’s doubtful that we will see Contreras until much later in the year unless an injury strikes.
TREA TURNER LOVERS
I continue to get the Trea Turner questions, and I just don’t get it. Let me restate things, yet again.
1 – I wrote the following back on April 20th.
If the Nationals want to push Turner’s arbitration to 2020, instead of 2019, then he won’t be called up to the big leagues until… wait for it… July.
2 – The Nationals don’t fully believe that the defensive aspect of Turner’s game is up to par. “You don’t have to rush him. I’ve seen kids get rushed and get ruined,” manager Dusty Baker said. “Everybody wants to rush these guys. Just go play. That’s the main thing. Go play and stay healthy.” Here’s what Turner said. "I'm starting to feel more consistent defensively. I think a lot of errors I've made (he has eight overall) have been really easily fixed and maybe a little bit more effort, or focus, or whatever you may want to call it, and all those plays are made. So I feel good defensively.”
3 – The Nationals are in first place in the NL East, 3.5 games ahead of the Mets. Why do they need to make any changes?
4 – The Nationals have two veteran options they can turn to at shortstop in Stephen Drew and Dany Espinosa. You can read about the goodness with Drew below. As for Espinosa, who the Nationals love defensively, they are willing to allow his bat to be middle so they can keep his glove in the lineup (Espinosa also has a homer and two doubles his last two games while he’s scored nine runs in nine games).
Turner is coming, likely next month (I think), but realize there are still hurdles to overcome for Turner.
ZACH DAVIES PLAYER PROFILE.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Matt Wieters is batting .303 with a .815 OPS against righties. He faces Marcus Stroman who has allowed 20 hits, two homers and 13 runs his last two starts.
FIRST BASE: Lefties are batting .295 with a .401 OBP against Tom Koehler. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is hitting .289 with a .421 OBP against righties. He’s also scored five times with a .387 OBP in seven June games.
SECOND BASE: Neil Walker has a hit in nine of ten games. He’s also walked seven times his last nine games and he has a .906 OPS on the road this season. Versus Jimmy Nelson he’s hitting .333 over 15 at-bats.
THIRD BASE: Gio Gonzalez has lost his last three starts allowing 18 runs, 25 hits and five home runs. Todd Frazier is only hitting .194 against lefties but he has a .342 OBP, .581 SLG and four homers in 31 at-bats. He also has four homers his last seven games.
SHORTSTOP: Stephen Drew has a .893 OPS on the road. He has a 1.013 OPS at night. He’s hit a homer with three RBI the last four games. Miguel Gonzalez has allowed lefties to hit .277 with a .380 OBP this season.
OUTFIELD: Ichiro Suzuki has hit .330 over 91 at-bats against Ervin Santana. In seven games in June Ichiro is batting .364, his third month this season of at least .316 in the average column.
OUTFIELD: Christian Yelich has a hit in 8-straight games. In June he’s hit .355 with a .827 OPS. Over his last three starts, all loses, Ervin Santana has allowed 14 runs in 16.2 innings including five homers.
OUTFIELD: Adam Duvall has 15 homers in 149 at-bats against righties. That effort brings with it a .932 OPS. Duvall also has six homers in nine games. He takes no the up and down Adam Wainwright.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).