Danny Duffy has a 10.26 K/9 and 1.47 BB/9. Those are Hall of Fame levels of production. He’s not that guy. The last two years his K/9 rate has been 6.75 and he’s never once posted a walk rate that is the equal of the league average as his career best is 3.19, back in 2014, which is double his current level. Note that since he’s moved to the rotation, five starts, the walk rate has gone even lower with two walks in 25 innings. This guy ain’t Bret Saberhagen. Don’t buy the hot run. Duffy just isn’t this guy.
Christian Friedrich was a first round selection in 2008. The 28 year old lefty has thrown a mere 195.1 innings at the big league level and the results have been flat out bad (5.34 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB ratio). He’s just not good. However, he has a 3-1 record with a 2.57 ERA this season in five starts for the Padres and all of a sudden people are whispering. Don’t. Even with the success he’s still walked 16 batters in 28 innings, a horrific 5.14 per nine mark, and the one homer in 28 inning thing is impossible to sustain. Duffy is better than CF, but neither is good.
Michael Fulmer improved to 6-1 for the Tigers as he continued to roll as the Tigers at the Jays 11-0 Sunday (I’ll to get to Happ in a second, the opposition of Fulmer in that game). In the win Fulmer extended his scoreless innings streak to 22.1 innings, a record for a rookie in Tigers history. Overall, Fulmer has 49 punchouts in 47.2 innings and is the owner of a 2.83 ERA. He’s also generating a lot of grounders with a 50.4 percent GB-rate. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which he makes 25 starts with a sub three ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but with each outing the odds of him being really good the rest of the way vault upwards.
J.A. Happ allowed six runs to the Tigers on the weekend, the second time in five games he’s gotten bombed. Over his last five starts Happ has a 6.26 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, 5.93 strikeouts per nine and 3.62 walks per nine. Folks, he’s just not good. He pitches in a tough division, in a tough home ball park, and doesn’t have the stuff to dominate. Note that after 5-straight seasons with a K/9 rate of at least 7.48 that the mark has plummeted to 5.71 this season, and that his 2.00 K/BB is below the league average at 2.00 (career 2.14). The ERA and WHIP (1.19) will go up moving forward.
Kyle Hendricks has a 2.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He also has a 3.80 K/BB ratio a year after the mark was 3.88. He’s also upped his 51.3 percent ground ball rate from last season to 56.8 percent this year. He’s been fantastic. However, he’s 4-5 for the best team in baseball when he could easily be 7-2. I say that based upon the fact that in 11 starts this season that Kyle has yet to allow more than four runs in a game. That has happened three times. Only once other time did he allow three runs. That means he’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of 11 starts. He’s been pitching great, period.
Dallas Keuchel has pitched at least six innings in 7-straight starts. Four of those outings have been quality starts. The other three have resulted in eight, seven and four runs allowed. Dallas has also allowed nine homers his last seven starts as he just can’t keep the ball in the yard. He’s not walking anyone having issued two free passes in four outings, but it’s clear that we will not be seeing the DK we’ve seen the last two years. Disappointing, but just the fact.
Sean Manaea has thrown at least six innings in each of the last five games he’s started for the Athletics. That’s a big positive for the rookie. Twice in five outings he’s allowed five runs, including Tuesday night but the other three times have been quality starts. He’s still a spotty start at the moment, but the innings are heartening.
Matt Moore allowed five runs in seven innings Tuesday. That’s bring his ERA over his last five starts to 6.59 which is accompanied by a 1.67 WHIP. He’s not startable in any format at the moment. Can’t say I’m surprised. Here is what I wrote about him back in March. “If you want to draft Moore as a late option, fine. If 
you’re banking on some breakthrough performance I’m sorry, the data just doesn’t support that point of view.”
Michael Pineda has allowed four runs his last two outings. In three of his last four outings he’s allowed three or fewer runs. A small uptick for a guy who has skills that always have suggested success. Over his last 39 starts Pineda has 227 strikeouts in 226.2 innings which is impressive. He has walked 38 batters in 39 starts which is uber-impressive. Numbers like that should lead to stardom. Alas, he has a 4.88 ERA,1.31 WHIP and has been a general source of woes. For my thoughts on how you should rank him make sure to take a look at the June Rankings Update.
Does he think he’s Jake Arrieta or something? Matt Shoemaker has gone 1-2 his last four starts. However, he’s also struck out 37 batters over just 30.1 innings. That’s stupendous. What makes the run even more remarkable is that Matt has not walked one batter, none. He’s avoided a walk for 30.1 innings. Amazing. Where does Shoemaker end up? I would say a run off the current ERA, which would leave him at 4.40, and a tenth off the WHIP mark, which would leave him two hundredths off his 1.26 mark last season. Solid, but not this good is Matty S.
Jameson Taillon Player Profile. He makes his first start for the Pirates today – against Noah Syndergaard.
Arodys Vizcaino is the closer of the Braves. He has just six saves in eight outings this season and people are frustrated. Look, I get it. Six saves stinks. But even with his slow start it’s certainly plausible that he will get to 20 saves. Instead of focusing on what he isn’t doing, let’s focus on the positive. His 3.00 BB/9 rate is a four year low. His 12.75 K/9 rate is a four year high. He owns a 1.20 WHIP over his last 60 outings. He has a 1.87 ERA his last 60 outings. A strong arm is he.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).