LINE DRIVE RATES

*Note: No one in baseball posted a mark last season over 28.7 percent while 10 men posted a mark of 26 percent.

NameTeamBABIPGB/FBLD%
Joe MauerTwins0.3102.2631.80%
Mark ReynoldsRockies0.4421.7730.70%
David WrightMets0.3330.4629.90%
Freddie FreemanBraves0.3330.8429.50%
Victor MartinezTigers0.3430.9228.60%
Jose AltuveAstros0.3291.4028.50%
Zack CozartReds0.3311.1028.50%
DJ LeMahieuRockies0.3392.8328.50%
Brandon BeltGiants0.3310.6928.30%
Nomar MazaraRangers0.3361.4727.60%
Jason KipnisIndians0.3331.3327.40%
Kole CalhounAngels0.3461.0427.10%
Josh HarrisonPirates0.3431.4526.90%
Nick CastellanosTigers0.3950.5826.80%
Miguel SanoTwins0.3220.6026.60%
Ketel MarteMariners0.3331.8726.40%
Chase UtleyDodgers0.3392.0026.30%
Gregory PolancoPirates0.3471.0726.20%
Daniel MurphyNationals0.4100.6626.00%
Jose IglesiasTigers0.2502.0725.90%

Mauer leads the majors with a 31.8 percent mark. The mark has been 27 percent two of the last three years, and his 24.1 percent career mark is impressive, but this is a mirage.

Reynolds at 30.7 percent is hilarious. His career best mark is 20.4 percent. The fall is going to be epic for the .323 hitting Rockie.

Freeman isn’t likely to maintain his 29.5 percent mark but folks, he owns a 27.0 percent mark for his career. By the by, since the start of the 2014 season Freeman is first in baseball with a 29.7 percent career mark. Maybe I spoke too early about his inability to maintain his current pace.

VMart has a 28.6 percent line drive rate which is a wee bit above his 21.2 percent career mark. Martinez has been under 22.6 percent in 10-of-11 seasons.

Cozart has a 28.5 percent mark that is nearly 10 percentage points above his career 19.2 percent rate. Just stop with the he’s breaking out talk. This is just stupid. He will cave soon enough.

Mazara is extremely unlikely to maintain his currently elite 27.6 percent mark. Is it fair to expect a rookie to be elite in any category? I say no.

No one is talking about Calhoun. Maybe they should be. He’s improved his BB/K ratio to 0.53, the mark was mid 0.30’s the last two seasons, and his OBP is .368, well above his sub .320 mark the last two seasons. His improved patience might leads to an increased line drive rate, but his current rate of 27.1 percent is just too high. He does own a strong 23.7 percent career mark though so some growth is possible.

I admit to being surprised to see Ketel at 26.4 percent. He does have a .333 BABIP which looks solid next to that line drive rate, but I still have a hard time totally buying in, not with such a low hard hit ball rate.

Iglesias hit better than .300 the last two seasons he’s appeared in the big leagues. This year he’s batting .220. The strikeouts and walks are the same. The GB/FB ratio is the same. So how do I explain his .250 BABIP and .220 batting average? Really can’t given everything that is going on here and the fact that he has a 25.9 percent line drive rate. The average should improve.

Miguel Cabrera has had a huge week. Salvador Perez has a hitting streak going. Marcel Ozuna has reached base in 30 straight games. See the Big 3 Video

HARD HIT BALL RATES

*Note: No one in baseball posted a mark last season over 42.8 percent while eight men posted a mark of 40 percent.

NameTeamBABIPSoft%Med%Hard%
David OrtizRed Sox0.33912.70%38.10%49.20%
David WrightMets0.3339.10%44.20%46.80%
Joey VottoReds0.2507.70%46.20%46.20%
Michael ConfortoMets0.32317.80%36.50%45.80%
Victor MartinezTigers0.34320.00%35.70%44.30%
Mike NapoliIndians0.31714.40%42.20%43.30%
Josh DonaldsonBlue Jays0.26413.60%43.20%43.20%
Trevor StoryRockies0.35914.40%42.40%43.20%
Welington CastilloDiamondbacks0.32617.70%39.20%43.10%
Yasmany TomasDiamondbacks0.32721.40%36.60%42.00%
Matt CarpenterCardinals0.2748.50%49.60%41.90%
Jose BautistaBlue Jays0.22919.50%39.10%41.40%
Miguel CabreraTigers0.33611.50%47.50%41.00%
Byung-ho ParkTwins0.26716.70%42.90%40.50%
Miguel SanoTwins0.32210.60%48.90%40.40%
Chris DavisOrioles0.29215.20%44.40%40.40%
Curtis GrandersonMets0.23415.10%44.50%40.30%
J.D. MartinezTigers0.29111.00%48.80%40.20%
Daniel MurphyNationals0.41010.00%50.00%40.00%
Nolan ArenadoRockies0.26313.60%46.50%40.00%
Evan LongoriaRays0.29815.50%45.00%39.50%
Jackie Bradley Jr.Red Sox0.39618.50%42.00%39.50%
Chris CarterBrewers0.27913.10%47.50%39.40%
Corey SeagerDodgers0.28715.30%45.30%39.30%

Read the above again. There are currently 20 men with a mark of 40 percent this season which is more than double the total that finished there last season (just eight). Realize that a lot of men on this list are going to be falling well off their current pace. There are also nine men who currently own a rate higher than last year.

This is for you Howard Bender.

Ortiz always hit the ball hard, but never this hard. He’s been at about 44 percent the last three years though.

Check out that oddness… Wright is there near the top of the list. And you thought he was washed up. Lol Wright has been under 36.5 percent each of the last five years. Given his lack of overall production, and beat up body, you know the number is pound to slip quickly.

Votto is hitting the ball hard. In fact, the data suggests that Votto is hitting the ball harder than he ever has before. For all his success, Votto has had a mark of 40 percent just one other time (2010).

Tomas is up 11 percentage points from his 31.0 percent mark last season despite losing a half point in the line drive column. That don’t make much sense.

Carpenter hit 25 homers his first three big league seasons. Last year the mark jumped. With nine in 45 games this season he’s on pace to even better the mark from last season. Note that he posted a career best 37 percent hard hit rate last season, well above the 33 percent mark he posted the previous two seasons. This year the mark is way up at 41.9 percent. It’s unlikely he will be able to sustain that rate.

Cabrera is on a monster run (you can watch my video which is listed above where I talk about it). Not that his current rate of 41 percent is above his 39 percent mark and slightly above his 40.1 percent mark from last season. Maybe he’s not washed up after all.

Park isn’t hitting many line drives, but when he hits the ball hard it is going an awfully long way (he has a 25.7 percent HR/F ratio and nine home runs).

JDM has a huge week and all of a sudden folks were a bit calmer. Note that his 40.2 percent current hard hit ball rate is just slightly below his 43.3 and 42.8 percent marks the past two years.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).