I’M WORRIED ABOUT

Chris Tillman has a 9.23 K/9 mark this season. Only once in his previous seven seasons did he post a K/9 mark over 6.95. That’s an epic climb this season. He’s also seen swinging strike rate move from 7.0-8.3 percent for seven years up to 10.4 this season. He’s throwing his heater about eight percent less with nearly all of that loss going to a gain in his slider percentage. Practically speaking, that means his slider rate has doubled from 7.5 percent last season to 15.2 percent this season. For his career the slash line on the pitch is .221/.292/.378. This year the numbers have plunged to .163/.182/.256. Ok, maybe. But there is this. Has he really improved his slider to the point that his swinging strike rate on the pitch has gone from nine percent to 18.1 percent this season? I have my doubts.

Matt Wisler has only two wins as the Braves poor offense has been unable to support him. That will be an issue all year long. However, it’s Wisler’s skills that mean more to me. The ratios looks great – he has a 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP – and his walk rate is impressive as well at 2.11 per nine. So why is Ray, that’s me, concerned? (1) Wisler has a 6.34 K/9 mark that is actually slightly above his 6.08 career mark. It’s a bad level. (2) Wisler has a .230 BABIP. No one does that consistently, especially a cat who doesn’t have “big” stuff. Wisler doesn’t. (3) Wisler has a mere 6.5 percent HR/FB ratio. The mark won’t stay that low. Not only does he own a much more reasonable 9.1 percent mark in his young career, but there is a large 47 percent fly ball rate to deal with. Note that his career marks are 1.15 per nine with a 44.4 fly ball rate. His homer rate is going up. (4) Wisler is allowing a 38 percent “hard hit” ball rate. That is the 4th worst mark in baseball – fourth worst. Batters are hitting the ball very hard yet are batting .205 with a .230 BABIP. What do you think that means moving forward?

Vincent Velasquez, Jaime Garcia, Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz. Let’s talk workload. Velasquez has never thrown 125 innings in a season as a professional. Garcia has one season with 165 innings in a career that began in 2008. He’s also failed to hit 60 innings in 2/3 years and has been under 130-innings each of the last four seasons. Hammel has never thrown 180-innings in a big league season. He’s hit 170 five times, but there are no big inning seasons on this arm. Pomeranz threw 88 innings last season, 115.1 in 2014 and 122.2 innings in 2013.

 

Tyler Chatwood has been great on the road but, at home? Carlos Rodon is walking less. Adam Conley isn’t quite there yet. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

 

I’M HOLDING OUT HOPE ON


Mike Fiers has seen his K/9 rate plummet to 6.45, miles from his 8.79 career mark. That’s scary. However, he’s been pinpoint with his control walking just seven batters in nine outings. The result is an elite 5.29 K/BB ratio. Also have to like the fact that he’s really reduced his fly ball rate from 39 percent to 25 percent. The number will not stay that low, no way, but if he can hold any of the growth – I like it. Given the lack of fly balls it’s shocking that his HR/9 is large at 1.57. A few more fly balls, a few less homers likely. A few more strikeouts, a few less walks are likely. Normalizing in the solid range is likely. I know he’s on waivers in some leagues, and he shouldn’t be.

Phil Hughes is yet to hit see 30 years old on his license. He still doesn’t walk anyone with a 1.66 BB/9 rate. That said, his homer per nine rate is way up at 1.66. I know he’s homer prone, and I know the mark was equally absurd last year at 1.68, but man is that a big mark. For his career the rate is 1.25 and the last four years the mark is 1.26. Some regression would really help. Alas he has a 4.99 K/9 mark, a year after a 5.45 rate. That means all I’m really holding out hope for is an ERA drop of a run that would allow him to be a streaming option in mixed leagues.

Hisashi Iwakuma has a mere 4.39 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Not good at all. More than those ratios I’m surprised to see his BB/9 rate up at 2.77, a full batter above his career mark. He’s also seen the ground ball ratio dip to 42 percent, well off his 49.5 percent career mark. In a 10-team league I can’t tell you to hold. In a 12-team league I would encourage you to hold, but I know there could be plenty of scenarios in which moving on makes sense. In a 15-teamer, I would hold and hope – the track record is really solid.

Matt Moore has a 9.09 K/9 rate, better than his career mark. His BB/9 rate is 2.93 which is more than a full batter below his career mark of 4.01. His 1.25 GB/FB ratio is well above his 0.96 career mark. Patience folks.

Yordano Ventura has a great arm. He’s been really good before. That’s about all I’ve got for a guy with a pathetic 6.10 BB/9 ratio and an equally pathetic 1.03 K/BB ratio. Not really much to hang your hat on… other than talent.

 

Byron Buxton is raking in the minors. Odor will probably serve his suspension this weekend. Yu Darvish should be back with the Rangers soon after his minor league stint. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).