WHAT’S WRONG WITH ADAM JONES?
Adam Jones has been one of the more effective offensive performers in baseball the past few years. In fact, over the last five seasons few have been more consistent. From 2011 to 2015 Jones hit at least 25 homers with 82 RBI a year and he’s the only man in baseball who belongs to that group. Moreover, through those five years an average Jones season has been a .281-29-90-87-10 fantasy line which is damn Impressive.
Alas, I have warned about Jones for years – meaning that I have told folks investing a first or second round pick on Jones was filled with potential risk. Why? The approach. Jones swings at everything with seemingly the low and away slider, the one you can’t actually hit, being his favorite pitch. In each of the last six seasons, and in all seven years in which he has appeared in 120 games, he’s struck out 100 times. We’re used to seeing that in this day and age. However, the guy never walks. Ever. Adam Jones has never walked more than 36 times in a season, and each of the last three years he’s failed to walk more than 25 times… for the entire season. Folks, Jose Bautista has already walked 27 times this season… in 34 games. The swing at everything, and never take a walk approach, has always left Jones on the edge of falling off the cliff. He better have anchored himself to the top of the mountain because he is free falling…
1 - It’s been 26 games, and you have to give a guy with this track record some time. Certainly more than a month of games.
2 – He’s been hurt. Jones had a rib cage issue early in April and that caused him to miss time. He also missed some time with a stomach virus. Gotta cut him some slack for that.
3 – Jones is batting .200 with a .269 OBP and .274 SLG. Those numbers are so preposterously low that it has to be a sample size, or injury related, issue. Has to be. Let’s delve into that performance.
Jones is batting .200 a season after he hit .269. That means Jones is batting .259 over his last 163 games. He has a mere 16.8 percent line drive rate in that time and his 0.26 GB/FB ratio is similarly awful. That has also led to a pathetic .302 OBP with a .321 wOBA. He’s been a league average performer the last 163 games in many aspects of his game. The counting numbers are still strong – 28 homers, 91 RBI and 83 runs – but those numbers have come at a cost (.259 average and three steals).
Oddly, Jones has walked more this year than ever before with eight walks in 26 games. Can’t expect that to continue, his decade of professional work suggests otherwise.
Let me speak of the power for a moment. I’ve long said that the line between success and failure here for Jones is razor thin. Here is why.
Jones has a 1.42 GB/FB ratio for his career, a high number for a player who routinely pushes the 30-homer level.
Jones has a 33.7 percent fly ball rate. That’s a league average number.
How has Jones hit 25-30 homers a season? He’s always posted a strong HR/FB ratio is how. From 2011 to 2015 he’s been remarkably consistent in the HR/FB category posting marks between 15.8 and 19.9 percent each season, which makes sense given his 15.2 percent career rate. This season Jones has the same fly ball rate as always at 33.3 percent. However, his HR/FB ratio is just 4.0 percent. Have to think it rises, if he’s healthy, but that doesn’t mean the mark is a lock to get to 15 percent given how lost he looks. Still, he will certainly be much closer to that mark than his current pace. A hot couple of weeks would change his outlook in this measure immensely.
Here’s the bottom line. It’s the same as always with Jones. His line for stardom and mediocrity is pretty close. For me that means a .280-29-90 season isn’t happening. That doesn’t mean a .269-27-82 season isn’t possible. I use those that second set of numbers specifically because those were the numbers he posted last season. Read those last two sentences again. The perception is that .280-29-90 is really good while .269-27-82 is disappointing. The truth? That’s a two-week difference of good versus poor performance. It’s really not that much. Jones hasn’t been the guy you remember the last 163 games, at least in the average and steals columns, and if he can’t be trusted there then he falls into the realm of guys like Corey Dickerson, Shin-Soo Choo and Mark Trumbo. Still, Adam has a long track record of success and it’s been less than 30 games that you are all panicking about in 2016. It’s not time to give up on the yet-to-turn 31-year-old, but concern isn’t out of line. Here’s to hoping that he can stay healthy which might just be the key to this whole darn mess.
Don’t sell Jones for .70 cents on the dollar, but don’t try to buy him for much more than that if you’re in the market to add the former All-Star.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Dioner Navarro has hit .267/.332/.436 against lefties over his career with 32 homers in 764 at-bats. Navarro is also batting .318 with a .455 SLG in May. He’s facing Derek Holland.
FIRST BASE: John Jaso has been successful against righties this season (.290/.353/.458). He’s also been very good on the road (.333/.391/.491). He faces Alfredo Simon who gets blasted by lefties (.381/.447/.745).
SECOND BASE: Zach Davies has had no shot against lefties this season (.424/.500/.513). Derek Dietrich has hit .327/.422/.600 against righties this season has is batting .407 with a 1.096 OPS over eight May games.
THIRD BASE: Brett Lawrie is batting .400 with a 1.055 OPS against lefties this season. Derek Holland is coming off the worst start of his life after allowing 11 runs while earning eight outs.
SHORTSTOP: Troy Tulowitzki has a hit in 3-of-4 games. Hey, it’s something. Moreover, Tulo has hit .328/.389/.672 over 72 plate appearances against Matt Cain while the Giants hurler has been blasted by righties this season (.344/.391/.551).
OUTFIELD: Austin Jackson has scored five times his last four games and has a hit in five straight. He’s hit a homer while batting .250 against Derek Holland over 16 at-bats while Holland has struggled against righties this season (.279/.327/.442).
OUTFIELD: Steve Pearce has hit two homers with four RBI and three runs scored his last four games. He faces Wade Miley who is a lefty, and Pearce has blistered southpaws to the tune of a .340/.433/.667 line.
OUTFIELD: Yasmany Tomas gets to take his hacks at Coors Field. He is batting .375 with a 1.163 OPS and three homers against lefties. He is opposed by Chris Rusin who has had success against righties but is coming off a beat down in San Francisco (7 ER, 4.1 IP). Make sure he's in the lineup as he's dealing with a neck issue.
DAILY DIVE
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