REALLY EXCITED ABOUT
Gregory Polanco has long been a fantasy darling. However, as I pointed out in his Player Profile, I was a bit concerned to report that Polanco didn’t help himself out at all by taking a free pass. As a result of that failing, Polanco had posted league average marks in batting average and on-base percentage through two seasons. The standard caveat, it’s been 16 games, but the early returns are terrific. Polanco is batting .302, which for a guy who hit .256 last season is fantastic. More exciting is the .433 OBP of Polanco. Look at what Polanco has done here. After walking 55 times last season leading to an 8.4 percent walk rate, Polanco has already been issued 13 free passes this season leading to a whopping 19.1 percent walk rate. There is zero chance he holds on to that. But, if he an up his season long mark to 10 percent or more, then his outlook greatly improves.
Polanco has also started off making a lot of contact with a mere 6.2 percent swinging strike rate (career 8.1) and upped his actual contact rate from 81.6 percent last season to 84.9 percent this season.
Perhaps that breakout season could come this season for the 24 year old.
EXCITEMENT STARTING TO BUILD
Wil Myers was once an elite level prospect. You know, on par with what we’ve seen this season with a guy like Corey Seager. I broke down the prospects that Myers could take a step this season in his Player Profile. Sixteen games into Myers’s regular season he’s on pace to hit 30 homers. That’s fantastic. He’s on pace for 61 RBI and 71 runs scored. That’s not impressive by any means, and would be disappointing if he did indeed approach 30 homers, but those would be acceptable numbers given preseason expectations. He’s also batting .273, not bad for a guy who has a .258 career mark. All of that indicative of a decent start to the year.
Now the bad news.
Myers has walked twice leading to a mere .290 OBP. That number will certainly go up for Myers who owns a .325 career mark.
Myers has struck out 24 times, and that’s scary bad. In fact, it’s one behind Trevor Story for the NL lead, and that’s not a category you want to be the champ in. With a K-rate of about 24 percent coming into the season, and his pedigree, it’s virtually impossible for me to believe he will hang on to his current 34.8 percent K-rate, a mark that would have led baseball last season. I feel even better about that statement given that Myers’ swinging strike rate this season is only one tenth above his career rate.
Once the punchouts recede to a more normal level we could find ourselves with a solid option in Myers, who qualifies at first base and in the outfield.
SHOULD WE BE EXCITED?
Joey Rickard of the Orioles had three more hits Thursday while scoring two runs and stealing a base as his hot start to the season continues.
The soon to be 25 year old, next month, has been an early season rock star hitting .350 for the Orioles, but here are my concerns.
He’s not holding on to a .417 BABIP.
His 32.7 percent line drive rate is absurd.
Even with his early success at stinging the baseball, Rickard has a mere .359 OBP. Why? He’s only walked twice. Awful.
He doesn’t drive the baseball, even with all this success. His .133 Isolated Power mark is below average, he has a mere 29 percent fly ball rate as well. Those two marks mean more to me than the .483 SLG that is driven nearly completely by his batting average.
I do like to see his spread with a 29 percent pull rate, 37 percent of batted balls up the middle, and 34 percent going to the opposite field. That’s indicative of a guy who is staying on the baseball.
Rickard also has a record of success in the minors with a .283/.390/.397 line, well at least the first two numbers were successful. Point being that Rickard simply doesn’t lift the ball well enough to be a home run hitter. He might reach double-digits, maybe. Probably not. Therefore, the way for him to maintain true fantasy value would be to run. He’s swiped 20+ based twice in the minors which is encouraging (including 23 steals last season). Alas, he’s only attempted one successful bag swipe through 14 games.
Best case scenario I’m thinking Odubel Herrera. Passable, but not great.
TYSON ROSS SETBACK
Tyson Ross will not require surgery on his shoulder after and MRI didn’t reveal anything structurally wrong with his shoulder. "The good news was [it's] non-surgical," manager Andy Green said. "We'll take a couple more weeks, re-evaluate, see where he is. Hopefully he's back on the mound quick for us." While trying to come back from the initial issue, Ross had a setback which prompted the MRI. "I've been rehabbing pretty aggressively and made some pretty good strides as far as strength is concerned, but it wasn't the first day of catch I was looking for," said Ross.
If I’m reading this correctly, the Padres will shut down Ross for a couple of weeks before giving it a go again. That would take Ross out to about four weeks without really throwing. Has to mean he will need a couple of weeks to get back up to the point where he can start in the big leagues. That would seem to suggest that late May could be the first time we will see him starting, does it not? If you haven’t already, you need to make serious plans to replace him in your starting lineup. Serious plans.
We all thought it would be his elbow to go, not the shoulder.
JAYS SIGN MICHAEL BOURN
We know who Michael Bourn is, and it’s not exciting at this point. The 33 year old, former speedster, was signed up the Blue Jays. He will not be worth squat in mixed leagues, but he’s worth adding in AL-only leagues. Bourn will just be a spare part until, notice I didn’t say if I said “until,” Michael Saunders goes down with an injury. Bourn, who swiped 41 bases for 5-straight seasons (2008-12), has stolen just 27 bases the past two seasons while posting a .312 OBP.
DON’T FORGET TO VISIT OUR LIVE ADVISE SESSION TODAY, APRIL 22ND.
DFS DIAMONDS – April, 22nd
CATCHER: Jarrod Saltalamacchia has gone deep five times with 14 RBI his last 10 games. He’s also posted four hits in five at-bats against Josh Tomlin and has a 1.358 OPS against righties this season.
FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer is batting .429 with a .929 OPS against lefties this season. Mauer, who has a hit in 9-of-10 games, has hit two homers against Gio Gonzalez in 17 at-bats and he’s batting .385 on the road this season.
SECOND BASE: Brandon Phillips faces Jon Lester having gone 7-for-15 (.467) against lefties this season. Phillips is also batting .393 with a 1.027 OPS at home and he’s hitting .400 over 15 at-bats against Lester.
THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria smashes CC Sabathia. In 78 career plate appearances Longoria has a .375/.487/.781 slash line with six homers, 14 RBI and 14 runs scored. He’s had a slow start this season, but his las three games he has three runs, three RBI and three extra base hits.
SHORTSTOP: Elvis Andrus faces lefty Jose Quintana and he’s gone 5-for-8 against lefties this season amongst his .354/.396/.458 slash line, overall, in April.
OUTFIELD: Melvin Upton has a hit in 5-of-6 outings. He’s also walked five times the past three games and has swiped four bags in his last six games. He faces a sluggish Adam Wainwright to start the season, a pitcher he has produced four hits against in nine at-bats.
OUTFIELD: Yasmany Tomas has a hit in 7-straight games as his average has gone from .174 to .288. Tomas has hit three homers in his last five games and he’s scored eight times in seven games as well. He’s batting .467 with a 1.433 OPS against lefties this season and faces Jon Niese.
OUTFIELD: Ryan Raburn is only 3-for-18 against Scott Kazmir but this is what he has going for him on this day. (1) Kazmir has not been on top of his game this season. (2) The game will be played in Colorado. (3) Raburn rips up lefties. Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s posted a .490 SLG with a .829 OPS, 25 homers and 76 RBI.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).