2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Hisashi Iwakuma

Hisashi Iwakuma is a 35 year old righty of the Mariners. He’s long been overlooked in the fantasy game, sometimes even dismissed actually, and there’s really no reason for it. He’s not a sexy name in fantasy, is approaching 36 years old, and is coming off a season of just 129.2 innings causing the aforementioned bypassing. Is Iwakuma worthy of your interest or should you follow the heard and simply move on by.

THE NUMBERS

THE LEAGUE LEADER STUFF

Let’s go category by category taking into account the years of 2012 through 2015. Get ready to be impressed.

*Minimum 650 innings pitched.

Iwakuma has a 3.17 ERA the last four seasons. There are only 10 men in baseball who have been better. That list does not include Cole Hamels (3.20), Corey Kluber (3.35), Jon Lester (3.58) or Dallas Keuchel (3.58).

Iwakuma has a 1.08 WHIP the last four seasons. There are only six men in baseball who have been better. That list does not include Felix Hernandez (1.09), David Price (1.09), Adam Wainwright (1.11) or Stephen Strasburg (1.11).

Iwakuma has a 1.75 BB/9 rate the last four seasons. There are only three men in baseball who have been better. The only arms that are better are Bartolo Colon (1.29), Phil Hughes (1.54) and Jordan Zimmermann (1.68).

Iwakuma has a 4.34 K/BB the last four seasons. There are only 10 men in baseball who have been better. That list does not include Hernandez (4.26), Zack Greinke (4.13), Johnny Cueto (3.59) or Lester (3.35).

Iwakuma has a .653 Winning Percentage the last four seasons. There are only four men in baseball who have been better: Greinke (.767), Max Scherzer (.719), Clayton Kershaw (.705) and Price (.677).

I would suggest you go over all of that again before you dismiss Hisashi.

Let me ask you a question. A guy that has been that good the last four seasons… should he have been overlooked on draft day? Should you really be questioning whether you should hold on to him if you drafted him or if you should add him if he’s on waivers? Really?

THE SKILLS

As is abundantly clear from all of the above, Hisashi simply doesn’t beat himself with the walk. That’s a key for hurlers the world over. Don’t issue free passes, have success. It’s not that simple, but it kinda is. For his career Iwakuma walks more than two guys per nine innings. That’s an elite level. Thus far he’s walked six guys in 18 innings in 2016. He’s only walked three batters his last two starts covering 13 innings. Things should improve from his early season “struggles.” You can further see that with his 65.9 first pitch strike rate, a percentage point above his career rate, is pretty much the same guy we’re used to. He’s also thrown 48.8 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, just slightly above his 47.3 percent career rate. He has been leaving the ball in the fat part of the zone with frequency in three games as his 94.2 percent rate against for contact on swings by batters on pitches inside the strike zone is elevated (89.0 percent for his career). That’s a sample size thing I would think.

Iwakuma has been remarkably consistent in the strike out category year over year. Amazingly so actually. Each of the past four seasons his K/9 has been between 7.25 and 7.74. This season the mark is 7.50 per nine. Same as always, and solid as always. What I would suggest keeping an eye on is his swinging strike rate. Each of the previous four season the mark has been at least 8.9. This season it’s down at 7.6. Note that we’re talking 18 innings which is obviously too few to draw any distinct conclusions. Interestingly, batters are swinging at 37.9 percent of the pitches he’s thrown outside the strike zone in 2016, above his 35.5 percent career rate.

For his career Iwakuma has a career 1.09 HR/9 mark that is pretty much a league average number. The mark was a bit elevated last season at 1.25 but if we add in his 18 innings from this season so that we can review his last 23 starts dating to the beginning of last season that number drops to 1.16. Pretty much on that career level then are we.

As for the batted ball rates… right now his GB/FB ratio is 1.24. His career rate is 1.63. There’s simply not enough data to draw on this season to doubt his career levels in this department. If we’re 10 starts in and there’s still a significant difference then we will have to reassess, but for now I’m willing to give Hisashi a pass. For now.

CONCLUSION

Iwakuma is aging at 35 so we have to keep an eye on Father Time.

Iwakuma is coming off a season of 129.2 innings.

Iwakuma hasn’t recorded 180-innings since 2013.

Those are concerns.

As for his slow start in three outings I’m not overly concerned there. Eighteen innings simply aren’t enough of a sample size to get worked up about.

As for his outlook in 2016 I’m a fan. The things you have going for you follow.

1 – He doesn’t beat himself with the walk.

2 – Iwakuma has been one of the best WHIP producers in baseball the last three seasons when he has been fourth in baseball with a 1.04 mark.

3 – His strikeout rate, that is far from elite, has been extremely consistent for four seasons.

4 – No one is hot to trot for Iwakuma. Whether we’re talking about what folks thought about him in March, or what they think now, it’s not like Iwakuma is a high ticket item by any means.

5 – Iwakuma shouldn’t be on waivers.

6 – He shouldn’t cost much to acquire if he’s not currently on your roster.

Kick the tires on Iwakuma. I certainly would if I could acquire him on the cheap. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).