2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Adam Conley

Adam Conley isn’t as young as you think. The soon to be 26 year old, he will turn that age next month, is a lefty who stands 6’3” and weighs about 190 lbs. There’s stuff to like with the lefty who has had a lot of minor league success but… you already know what I’m going to write if you read my stuff, so I’m not going to. I’m in a good mood today.

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
 

* Conley missed half the 2014 season due to injury to his elbow – twice.

Note that he was never looked at as an elite prospect, top-100 type (in fact, heading into the 2015 season he wasn’t even listed as a top-30 prospect with the Marlins).

MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

A COMPARISON

Let me ask you. What do you think of Ian Kennedy? I ask that question because the career numbers of Conley are pretty much a dead on match for those of Ian Kennedy.

This comparison should scare the bejesus out of you if you are all in on Conley. Look at those numbers… they are virtually identical. Like, spot on. I’m merely pointing out the obvious: people often over-evaluate youth while passing on the known. While you’ve scrambling to add Conley off waivers, or to trade for him if he’s on another squad, how many of you ever considered Kennedy as an alternative? Exactly. None of you.

THE SKILLS

After his lost 2014 season Conley’s prospect status was on the wane. He posted a solid season last year in the minors to cause his stardom to gain some shine, and that included a solid run with the Marlins late in the year. At the same time note that he walked 3.4 batters per nine last season at Triple-A which was only out-crapped by his 6.8 K/9 mark. That effort led to a very, very poor 2.03 K/BB ratio. Those are the numbers of an elite talent are they?

The velocity is back for Conley as PITCHf/x has him at 91.3 mph for his young career, and that has helped lead him to 74 strikeouts in 70 games, or 8.51 per nine as a Marlin. Nice to see that number, but note that in 15 outings last season the mark was 7.93. It’s nowhere near a lock that Conley will post a strikeout rate over eight per nine, especially with his 10.4 swinging strike rate that is just about on the league average.

The walks continue to be an issue for Conley. His 2.92 per nine mark in the bigs is right on the league average and just a tenth off his minor league mark. A bit deceiving though is that minor league mark given that his rate over 31 outings at Triple-A is elevated at 3.6 per nine. He’s not going to be a dart thrower and that puts his WHIP at risk of being league average (as it basically has been to this point).

Through 17 big league outings Conley has a 0.94 GB/FB ratio that obviously means he tilts to the fly ball. The league average in balls his upward is about 34-35 percent. Conley is at 41.2 percent. His home park certainly benefits the pitcher and helps to keep the ball in the yard, but it’s still possible, if not probably, that his 0.85 career HR/9 mark will move slightly upward, even with the downward movement on his pitches.

I’m also a bit concerned about his 76.0 percent left on base percentage. That’s a big number and not something pitchers easily hold on to. Over the last three years only 21 arms who have thrown at least 450-innings can better that rate. It’s possible Adam could hold on to that mark, but obviously not likely.

Unlikely many arms just coming up, Conley threw 174 innings last season meaning frames may not be an issue, especially since he’s nearly 26 year old.

CONCLUSION

Conley also throws a slider and infrequently a changeup to augment his heater. He needs to hone the slider in order to take the next step. Much like Archie Bradley, who you can read about in this Daily Trends piece, there are questions about whether or not Conley would slot in more effectively as a late inning arm versus as a depth rotation starter. At this point the rotation is where he is, but even with that being said we’re looking at a 4/5 starter more than a 2/3 at the big league level unless those secondary offerings continue to improve as nothing he owns is an elite offering.

My opinion is the hype right now outpaces the skills. Things break right for Conley and he’s a solid starter this season – ala Ian Kennedy. If the old arm woes resurface, the walks continue to be plentiful or his secondary offerings don’t come along then we could be looking at the next Kyle Gibson.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).