2016 MLB Draft Guide: The Closer Conundrum

Later in this Guide in “Never Draft a Closer Early,” Greg Jewett will discuss the idea of when to draft a closer (let’s say that I’m not a huge fan, in most instances, of being the one to break the seal on drafting closers). Of course, all leagues are different, and while closers may not be taken early in the experts drafts I do, perhaps they are taken early in your home league. Above all, remember this axiom – you have to play your draft. I’m speaking of generalities when I say don’t take a closer early. If it’s the seventh round and 11 closers are already off the board you had better jump into the mix.

Enough with the public service announcement.

Now on to the main show which will discuss drafting closers as well as the fact that choosing a closer on a good team, over a closer on an average one, isn’t always the best plan of action.

In 2015 there were 1,292 saves, an average of 43.1 per team.
- There were 47 men who saved five games
- 37 saved 10 games
- 33 saved 15 games
- 28 saved 20 games
- 24 saved 25 games
- 21 saved 30 games
- 12 saved 35 games
- Five saved 40 games
- Two saved 45 games

In 2014 there were 1,263 saves, an average of 42.1 per team.
There were 49 men who saved five games
- 39 saved 10 games
- 30 saved 15 games
- 25 saved 20 games
- 21 saved 25 games
- 17 saved 30 games
- 13 saved 35 games
- Seven saved 40 games
- Four saved 45 games

In 2013 there were 1,266 saves, an average of 42.2 per team.
There were 42 men who saved five games
- 37 saved 10 games
- 33 saved 15 games
- 28 saved 20 games
- 23 saved 25 games
- 19 saved 30 games
- 14 saved 35 games
- Seven saved 40 games
- Three saved 45 games

So, the last three seasons there have been an average of…

Three men posting 45 saves.

Seven men posting 40 saves.

Thirteen posting 35 saves.

Nineteen posting 30 saves.

Twenty-three posting 25 saves.

Twenty-seven posting 20 saves

Thirty-two posting 15 saves.

So, on balance, that means there are, if you’re in a 12-team mixed league, an average of 1.92 relievers per club that will save 25 games. Moreover, 2.25 relievers a club with 20 saves. Of course, that’s not what happens in the real world, but I’m just trying to break it down on a per club basis.

So if there are an average of 23 men a year who post 25 saves why do you feel the need to reach for saves?

This brings us to the consistency piece of this argument. Let’s look at things from that angle.

In each of the last three seasons, this is how many men have reached the appropriate saves totals in each campaign (2013-15).

Zero relievers saved 40 games each year.

Craig Kimbrel is the only man with 35 saves each year.

Five men saved 30 games each of the last three years: Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Glen Perkins and Huston Street.

Let me emphasize, five men saved 30 games each of the last three years. One of those five men is already out for the season (Holland) so there’s only a chance for four men to hit that level in four straight seasons.

If we drop it to 25 saves each of the last three years we add only one name to the list: Kenley Jansen.

Let me emphasize, six men saved 25 games each of the last three years. Why are you wasting early picks in drafts, or big money in auctions, on a position where there is so little consistency from season-to-season?

No position in baseball is more fraught with danger than the closers’ spot.

None.

And that’s the rub that always sticks in my craw when it comes to relievers – there is no consistency from season-to-season. Sometimes it’s due to injury. Sometimes it has to do with a period of struggles that leads to him being demoted. There are tons of factors that play into the ability of a player to rack up saves, not to mention having the opportunity.

I’m not going to sit here on my high horse and say you can’t win drafting closers. A few years ago I won the SiriusXM Hosts League taking Chapman/Holland back-to-back in the sixth and seventh rounds because I saw an opportunity emerge (I was picking at the wheel and there was only one closer off the board at the time if I’m not mistaken). So as I wrote at the top, it’s all about the contest of your draft, your team and how others in your league are rostering closers. At the same time, of all the leagues I’ve done over the years that one draft is by far the minority (I usually don’t draft more than one starting pitcher in the first sixth to seventh rounds, let alone take a closer).

It’s been proven, year-after-year, that closers cannot be trusted.

It’s also an undeniable fact that there are massive amounts of turnover at the closers’ spot each season, often times as much as 40-50 percent of the men who lead their teams in saves didn’t begin the year as the closer. The fact is that unless you’re in an AL- or NL-only league, there are always going to be save options on the waiver wire. The question is can you get that player when he becomes available? Don’t forget that when a new closer steps up, virtually every team in the league will want him if he’s a free agent so the bidding for his services will be heated. While I’m suggesting that you don’t have to draft closers early, I’m also not suggesting you completely bail on them on draft day since it isn’t as easy to acquire saves off the waiver wire each season as some people make it seem to be – unless you’re very aggressive and forward thinking.

You can win taking closers early. In most cases I just don’t think it’s the best way to put a team together.

CLOSERS ON BAD TEAMS

People often say you shouldn’t target closers on bad teams because there aren’t enough saves to be found there. Well…

If a team is good doesn’t it stand to reason they would have a plethora of solid options in the bullpen to close out games when a save chance is available? Wouldn’t it also make sense that if a team wasn’t very good that they might have fewer options in a bullpen? Point being that even if Team A has 60 saves and Team B has 45 doesn’t mean there will be a man with a bigger saves total on Team A. It could certainly happen, of course, but what if Team B stinks and only has one good arm in the pen? If you were the manager of that crappy team wouldn’t you turn to your best guy each time there was a save chance to secure your victory? Certainly could go down that way. Notice I wrote “could.”

Here is a list of all the men who saved 30 games last season. I’ll list their saves total, their team victory total, and the percentage of victories that each man saved for his team.

* Kimbrel was on the Padres and Red Sox. The Pads won 74 games, the Sox 78

A few notes:

There were 24 men who saved 25 games.

Out of those 24 men six played on teams that won 79 or fewer games.

Out of those 24 men nine played on that were at .500 or lower.

The win/loss record, on average, for those 24 men was, get this, 81-81.

The average number of saves per team win is 0.42.

Are you sure you can predict which team will win the most games in 2016?

Are you sure you can predict who will lead that team in saves in 2016?

The fact is the data is rather mixed which should lead you to the most obvious conclusion – that drafting one closer over another, merely because he is on a “better” team, doesn’t mean you will end up with a reliever who has more saves.