Bryce Harper won the NL MVP at 22 years of age in 2015.
The 2015 NL Rookie of the Year, Kris Bryant, was 23 years old.
Harper became the fourth youngest player ever to win the MVP: Stan Musial (1943), Johnny Bench (1970) and Vida Blue (1971). He was the youngest to win unanimously.
Harper hit .330. No player his age has hit that high since Alex Rodriguez in 1996 (.358).
Harper posted a .460 OBP. No one younger than Harper has hit that mark since Jimmie Foxx in 1929.
Harper had a .649 SLG. He is the youngest player to hit that mark since Joe DiMaggio in 1937.
Harper became the youngest player to ever have 170 hits and 120 walks in a single season. He broke the record held by Ted Williams in 1941.
Harper had a 9.9 WAR in 2015. Ken Griffey Jr. (9.7) and Hank Aaron (9.4) never had a season that high. They were pretty good players.
Through their age-22 season there is no difference between Harper and one of the all-time greats, Mickey Mantle.
Harper: .289/.384/.517 with a 19.8 WAR in 510 games
Mantle: .296/.391/.505 with a 20.1 WAR in 511 games.
To wrap up the intro, Bryce Harper hit .330 with 42 homers, 99 RBI, 118 runs scored and six steals with a 1.109 OPS in 2015.
The question now becomes… how valuable will Harper be in 2016 and is he worthy of being the top pick in fantasy drafts?
Let’s explore.
HIS HEALTH
After playing 139 games as a rookie (he was called up after the year began), Harper appeared in just 118 and 100 games over the next two seasons due to a myriad of injuries. In 2015 he appeared in a career best 153 games. That leaves us with the following data points.
Only once in four seasons has he accrued 600 plate appearances.
Only once in four seasons has he appeared in 140 games.
Even if we remove his rookie season, his three year games played total averages 124 games played a campaign. If we add back in his rookie effort we’re looking at an average of 127.5 games. Through four years he’s missed an average of more than a month of game action. Keep that in mind.
THE SPEED
Where did it go? A one-time 30/30 hopeful, Harper has never stolen 20 bases in a season. He nearly went 20/20 as a rookie hitting 22 homers with 18 steals though, so he was on the cusp of some huge power/speed seasons. Or so it was thought. If he stole 15-20 bases who would be complaining? Answer – no one. Alas, he’s not that guy, or at least he hasn’t been the last three seasons.
Over the past three campaigns Harper has stolen 11, two and six bases. ‘But Ray, he was hurt so that’s not really fair.’ I hear stuff like that a lot. Folks, I don’t care. The facts are the facts. Here they are.
After stealing 18 bases as a rookie he’s stolen a total of 19 bases the past three years. Read that again.
After attempting 24 steals as a rookie he’s attempted 18 steals the past two seasons. Over the last three years he’s run 29 times. He’s not even averaging 10 steal attempts the last three seasons after running 24 times as a rookie.
Back to my fake quote from above. What if you’re right? What if Harper wasn’t healthy and that’s why he hasn’t been running? He would steal 15+ bases for sure if he was healthy, right? Let’s look at that from another angle. The reason he isn’t running is likely two fold. (1) He’s never fully healthy. (2) He and the team have likely decided that his bat is so important that he shouldn’t beat up his body and risk injury by stealing bases. Neither one is good for his fantasy outlook.
Could he return to the 15-plus level of steals in 2016? Certainly. I’m merely pointing out that if you’re expecting him to do that, you and I are not in the same camp.
THE POWER
Harper is one of the most powerful swingers in the game. Everyone knows that. Still, the following data point might really surprise you. According to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, Harper’s average home run distance in 2015 was 400.1 feet. That was just the 52nd longest average in baseball. Surprised, aren’t you? Looking at his homer chart, 21 of his 42 home runs failed to travel 400 feet. If you look at his spray chart 14 of the homers were to the left of true center field. As with most hitters his pull side saw most of the big flies as he jacked up his pull rate from 39 percent in 2013-14 to 45.4 percent last season. But that opposite field power, and the up-the-middle stroke, is still impressive.
Harper did something that makes everyone think he could repeat his 40-homer rate of 2015. Besides the eyeball test and the obviously elite skill level, Harper took his 34 percent fly-ball rate, a league-average number, up to 39.3 percent in 2015. Still, that’s not a huge number and was just 37th in baseball for a guy who qualified for the batting title. Heck, Logan Forsythe (40.6) and Nick Castellanos (40.4) hit more fly balls. However, the improvement in the mark will certainly aid Harper’s long ball quest.
The real reason his home run rate increased was the massive improvement in his HR/FB ratio. Here’s what we know: Harper had a 27.3 percent HR/FB ratio in 2015, the third best mark in baseball. The previous three seasons that mark was 16.2, 18.0 and 15.5 percent. ‘But Ray, he’s young and growing in to his talent.’ True. But there is a major issue working against him as well. How many players have posted a mark of 27.3 percent HR/FB ratio the past ten years? Let’s take a look.
2006: Three 2007: Five 2008: Two 2009: Zero
2010: Zero 2011: Zero 2012: One 2013: One
2014: Zero 2015: Three if you count Harper.
Even if we go back into the “Steroid Era” it’s still plain to see that a HR/FB of 27 percent is a rarity. Over the last five years a player has posted a HR/FB ratio of 27 percent just five times. ‘But Ray, Harper is a generational talent.’ Maybe he is, but I’m merely pointing out that, over the past decade, players just don’t generate a 27 percent HR/FB ratio year after year. Do I need to point out what happened to last year’s HR/FB leader? You know me, I never miss a chance to gloat, so here is what I wrote in the Draft Guide last year about Jose Abreu who led baseball at 26.9 percent. “…note that it's difficult to defend the position that Abreu will replicate his HR/FB ratio in 2015. If he doesn’t, he simply must hit more balls into the air, or he won't be able to improve upon his 2014 homer total.” What happened in 2015? Abreu saw the rate fall to 19.7 percent causing his home run total to dip from 36 to 30. Recall that in his first three seasons Harper never posted a mark of 19.7 percent. Will he see a pull back like Abreu did? It’s certainly possible. #JustSaying
RUN PRODUCTION
Harper, for the first time, drove in more than 59 runners in a season last year. Obviously that has to do with his injury filled past and his spot in the batting order. The Nationals finally committed to Harper hitting the middle of the order last season and he batted 94 times in the third spot and 59 times at clean-up. That’s 153 games hitting third or fourth. Given that he hit 42 homers, it’s a bit strange to see that he drove in just 57 runners that weren’t him. Harper was fantastic with runners in scoring position, but at the same time he seemed to be at his best when the bases were empty or there was just one man on first.
Bases Empty: .325/.433/.671
Men on Base: .336/.490/.621
Men in Scoring Position: .301/.475/.549
Oh he got on-base when there were men in scoring position, but he also saw his average and slugging percentage drop.
This brings up the “Barry Bonds” effect. When a player causes as much damage as Harper does, pitchers take note. The result is a lot of walks if the batter is discerning enough to spit on bad pitches. Harper is just such a batter. He walked 124 times in 2015, the second most in baseball. The man who led the way in walks was Joey Votto who had 143 free passes. Votto always gets bashed for two things. (1) He doesn’t have an elite power stroke. (2) He doesn’t drive in enough runners. Why doesn’t Votto drive runners in? It’s because he takes so many walks. It’s possible that Harper’s discernment at the dish might preclude him from leading baseball in runs batted in, even if he has a killer year. After all, he was tied for 14th in baseball last season with 99 RBI in what was, undoubtedly, a stupendous season.
As for the runs scored, well, copious amounts are in Harper’s future. When you get on base, you score runs. For his career, Harper has a .384 OBP, and though I know it was .460 last season the mark had never been .370 before (just pointing it out). Harper will score tons of runs as long as he stays on the field. He led the National League in runs scored in 2015 and per 162 games for his career he’s averaged 104 runs scored.
THE SPLITS
Nothing stopped Harper last season. Nothing.
He had a .986 OPS against lefties and 1.160 mark against righties.
He had a 1.170 mark at home and 1.049 on the road.
He had a 1.140 mark during the day and 1.091 at night.
He had a 1.168 mark in the first half. It was 1.043 in the second half.
Yep, like I said, nothing stopped him last season.
CONCLUSION
Bryce Harper finally lived up to expectations in his fourth major league season. That it took this long was too long for some. For me, and those of us who are thinking rationally, the kid was 22 years old last season. Come on. Remember back to the top of this piece what I wrote… Harper is younger than Kris Bryant.
Harper is a first round fantasy selection in 2016. Should he be the first overall selection? His talent and age suggest that if you were to take him first overall no one would bat an eye of disapproval. However, he has yet to prove that he can consistently stay on the field. It’s also rather obvious that he isn’t going to hit .330 year after year (he hadn’t hit .275 his first three seasons by the way) and it’s debatable at to whether his home run total will improve or not. And again, he isn’t stealing bases anymore. Not saying it’s wrong to take him first overall but I don’t think if you bypass him for another elite player that you would be wrong.