SERIOUS SURGERY

Michael Brantley needed shoulder surgery, he had a small labral tear, this after the expectation was that rest would do the trick for his ailing shoulder. Turns out rest wasn’t helping him to overcome the injury he suffered on September 22nd so the knife was needed. And it’s not good. Initial reports suggest that he will miss 5-6 months. That means November, December, January, February and March gets us to five months. If he needs six then he’s certain to miss the start of the 2016 season. Even if he is out for five months it’s questionable how ready he will be for Opening Day since his offseason training schedule will be so off. The hope, at this point, is that he will be able to play in games in five months and be able to participate in big league action in six. Bottom line is it would be a big time surprise if he was on the field when the 2016 season begins.

In 2014 Brantley went from being a solid hitter to a fantasy superstar hitting .327 with 20 homers, 16 steals, 97 RBIs and 84 runs scored.

In 2015 he wasn’t quite as good, he lost 19 games played from ’14 as he dealt with health woes, but he still hit .310 with 15 homers, 15 steals, 84 RBIs and 68 runs scored.

Brantley is a hell of a performer but given this news, the fact that it’s his shoulder that was repaired, and that he’s nearly certain to begin the year on the DL it’s obvious that he will be a falling on draft day.

YET ANOTHER SETBACK

Here we go again. Dylan Bundy was scratched from his third Arizona Fall League start with “right elbow stiffness.” The early reports suggest there is nothing structurally wrong with his elbow but this latest setback likely means that his AFL campaign is over. The 22 year old righty had Tommy John surgery in 2013 and threw 41 innings in 2014 as he worked his way back to health. This season he had a couple of setbacks as well as he dealt with a right shoulder strain that limited him to 22 innings of work. Out of minor league options, Bundy will either have to be on the Orioles’ roster or on the DL on Opening Day.

At this point Bundy should just hope that he is able to get healthy and fulfill a modicum of the expectations that have been placed upon him for years. An elite talent, Bundy continues to experience setback after setback and they threaten to derail a career that seemed so promising just a few years back.

A  DEFENSE

Jose Bautista explains his monumental playoff bat flip. You buying it?

TOO BIG?

Sounds like the Dodgers think that Yasiel Puig might be a little too big for his britches. According to Mark Saxon, Andrew Friedman stated the following about Puig. "He's continued to get bigger, stronger each year and that may not be the optimal size for him to play 150-plus games.” Officially listed at 6’3”, 255 lbs, Puig is not a small man. Don’t take this report to suggest he got fat, he’s no Pablo Sandoval, he’s just too big. Baseball isn’t football. It’s why you don’t see a bunch of Muscle and Fitness guys playing baseball. Flexibility and durability are more important to a baseball player than being able to deadlift a Ford Festiva.

More than anything this speaks to the dedication of Puig to his craft. He seems to be his own person, which to a certain extent is fine, but there are also a myriad of teammates who find him exceedingly aloof and less than serious about his career. On the field Puig continues to be undisciplined and injuries held him to just 79 games this past season. He failed to reach his career average in BB/K, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, BABIP etc. It was just a down season. Though he has the talent to hit .300 while going 20/20, he’s yet to show the consistency needed in order to attain those numbers. Well worth a roster spot in any format in 2016 based on talent alone, but you would be wise to make sure you don’t overspend given the uncertainty, on and off the field.

ON THE MARKET?

According to Jayson Stark, it sounds like the Marlins might be willing to give up on Marcell Ozuna. The outfielder was only in the bigs for 123 games last season, he spent 33 games in Triple-A, but the soon to be 25 year old shouldn’t be given up on, at least yet.

A year removed from hitting 23 homers with 85 RBIs, many folks overlooked the fact that Ozuna struck out 164 times in 2014 while walking only 41 times. The resulting 0.25 BB/K ratio is exceedingly poor, the league average is usually at least a third higher, and when you have that approach at the dish your batting average is always going to be at risk. Therefore, it’s hardly surprising that Ozuna is a career .265 batter. At least he’s able to hit the ball hard, frequently, with a .328 BABIP. It’s gonna be hard for him to improve upon that number. He has a 19.6 career line drive rate, also solid, so there is that.

Ozuna also isn’t going to be swiping bases with a total of 15 attempts, 10 successful, over 346 games.

So his profile is about playing daily, and the counting numbers. Per 500 at-bats here are the numbers for Ozuna: 14 homers, 62 RBIs, 58 runs scored. Those are far from intriguing numbers. Part of the issue for Ozuna is at this point he has failed to learn how to lift the ball. In three seasons his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. The league average is about 34 percent. He is the owner of a career 48 percent ground ball rate. The league rate is about 45 percent. He simply doesn’t hit enough balls skyward to be a big time power threat unless one thing happens – his HR/F ratio is big. In 2014 the mark was at 16.8 percent. Last season it was a league average number of 9.3 percent, hence his total of 10 homers in 459 at-bats.

Ozuna is talented, and no big league team should give up on him, but there are steps he needs to take if he wants to consistently perform like he did in 2014.

 

FOR MORE ON ALL THE FREE AGENTS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL AND WHERE THEY WILL END UP BOOKMARK OUR 2016 MLB FREE AGENT TRACKER.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Thursday at 8 PM EDT and Friday at 10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).