DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. We have four coaches for football (QB, RB, WR and TE). Yours truly writes the QB piece each week by the way. We also offer weekly DFS Rankings and Optimal lineups. We also have DFS articles for the NBA and NHL, and even the PGA.
GIANTS PORTION OF THE ARTICLE…
HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?
Brandon Crawford hit 21 homers with 84 runs batted in. That’s an impressive season for a shortstop, and an out of nowhere effort for Crawford who had never hit remotely like this before. Ever. Crawford hit 23 homers in 2012 and 2013 and 2014. He hit two more homers in those three seasons than he hit in 2015. How did it happen?
His walk rate went down to 7.0 (career 8.3 percent).
His K-rate went up to 21.2 percent (career 19.8 percent).
His groundball rate went up to 47.7 percent (career 46.1).
His fly ball rate went down to 33.5 percent (career 34.4).
How did all of that happen and his homer rate went up?
The only thing that went up was an explosion in his HR/F rate. In 2013 the number was 7.0 percent. In 2014 the number was 6.5 percent. In 2015 the number was 16.2 percent. Guys just don’t double their HR/F ratios, and then some. If they happen to, it nearly always recedes the next season. Keep that in mind. Also remember the above four data points. Crawford actually wasn’t any better than normal. He hit .256 (career .246). His OBP was .321 (career .313). Only that fly ball rate.
BRANDON BELT – FINALLY THERE?
Brandon Belt was nominated for the Gold Glove in 2015. He’s a strong defender. He’s also a very good hitter who has a hard time playing daily. Bumps and bruises are there, but the concussion issue, not as bad as the guy who will be touched on at the end of this article, is a concern moving forward. As for what he did on the field…
Belt was one of three eligible first baseman who hit .280 with 18 homers and nine steals.
He’s kind of a poor man’s Eric Hosmer. Some power, some speed, but nothing great. Check those expectations at the door. He will never be great. If you do that what you are left with is a solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. The last two seasons he’s had 500 plate appearances he’s averaged 18 homers, 68 RBIs, 75 runs and has hit .285. Again, nothing exciting but it plays. One thing I really liked in 2015 was an increase in his walk rate. The mark was in the eight percent range in 2013-14 before being bumped up to 10.1 percent in 2015. Solid. More impressively, he led baseball with a 28.7 percent line drive rate helping to a career best .363 BABIP in 2015. He’s long been a star in those two categories, his career marks are tip top at 24.0 and .340. Those are elite numbers. Still, the rates he posted in 2015 were so high that it leaves some question about what his performance will look like in 2016, at least in the batting average category. He’s a career .271 batter anyway, so it’s not like his average is going to do much to help out a fantasy squad. At least it shouldn’t cave given his strong line drive rates and BABIP marks.
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GOLD GLOVES
Here is a list of all the players that are nominated for the Rawlings Gold Glove Awards. The most amazing factoid of all those nominated? Let’s focus on Matt Duffy. The Giants third sacker for 134 games, Duffy had appeared in two games at third base in 2014, this after playing a total of three minor league games at third base. He entered 2015 with five games played at third base… and he’s now nominated for the Gold Glove Award. Pretty amazing from a guy that stepped up big time when the Giants needed him.
WORLD SERIES UPDATE
In case you missed it, here is my review of the first couple of games of the 2015 World Series that the Royals lead 2-0.
KEVIN PILLAR, BETTER THAN YOU THINK?
He’s a hell of a field that Kevin Pillar, but he also had a pretty solid offensive season as well. Not only did he appear in 159 games in his first full season – he appeared in 99 games the 
previous two seasons – and he racked up 628 plate appearances. Despite spending 49 games batting seventh and 80 batting 8th, in fact only 18 of his games had him batting above 7th in the Blue Jays order, he had a very productive season with 76 runs scored. He also swiped 25 bases and was only caught four times, a strong 86 percent success rate. He drove in just 56 runners, batting low in the order can do that. Pillar drove only 12 balls into the seats, his fly ball rate was just under 37 percent (league average 35 percent), and his .121 isolated power mark also suggests that his game is just not driving the ball into the seats (the league average is about .140). Could he hit 15 homers? Certainly. Twenty? Possibly, but that’s a big stretch at this point.
As for his average of .278, did he earn that? His BABIP was .306, barely better than league average. His 22 percent line drive rate was slightly elevated but certainly not to a mark that he cannot sustain. He rarely struck out with 85 punchouts, love that, but he also counterbalanced that with never taking a walk. Hard to play as much as he did and walk just 28 times, ain’t it? Really Kevin, take a walk kid. Due to the lack of walks his OBP was just .314, slightly below the league average. With that approach the only way he’s going to see his average spike would be a bit of luck in the BABIP column. It’s also unlikely he will be moved to the top of the order if he can’t get on base more frequently.
Expect a repeat next season with room for moderate growth. After all, he’ll already be 27 years old at the start of next season.
FREE AGENT
Justin Morneau is now a free agent as the Rockies declined their end of his 2015 mutual option that was $9 million. Limited to just 49 games with yet another concussion, Justin is still capable of hitting big league pitching, though his ability to remain on the field is greatly in doubt.
Starting in 2010 we’re talking about a player who has failed to appear in 85 games in three of six seasons and he will be 35 years old next May. Moreover, he’s had multiple setbacks over the years seemingly having to miss months every time he bumps his head or take a big fall. The concussions certainly don’t seem to be going away.
Morneau can still hit. After batting .319 last season he hit .310 this season over 49 games. However, the last time he hit 20 homers was 2009 and his SLG hasn’t been .500 since 2010. He’s also failed to reach his .201 career Isolated Power mark since 2010. He just doesn’t drive the ball like he used to, and that was while playing in Colorado half the time. Morneau will likely get a shot somewhere, but he’s basically akin to guys like Mitch Moreland and Billy Butler at this point.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Thursday at 8 PM EDT and Friday at 9 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).