DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters – Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
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PITCHERS IN THE NEWS
Sonny Gray has been shut down for the year and won’t make his final start. Officially he’s being sidelined by a hip issue. Gray will end the year with a 2.73 ERA that was greatly inflated due to his allowing a whopping 14 runs over his final 14.1 innings (his ERA was 2.28 four starts ago). The WHIP was also impressive at 1.08 and he continued to generate grounders with aplomb (53 percent of batted balls). Gray might be a hair below the elite because he owns a mere 7.68 K/9 mark for his career, but a look at his overall numbers through 491 innings would impress anyone: 2.88 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.74 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB, 54.2 percent ground ball rate. He should be fine with some rest.
Dallas Keuchel is 15-0 at home this season. That’s the best record at home since Bill Hoffer went 20-0 in 1895. That’s a long time ago. DK has been amazing this season. Out of this world good. I was totally wrong about him. Admit it I did.
Corey Kluber fell to 8-16 Tuesday night in a somewhat forgettable season that has been marred by ill health the last month. If that was all you had to go on you would likely think he was a failure. He really wasn’t though. Over 214 innings he owns an inflated 3.62 ERA (his SIERA is 3.00 and his xFIP 3.05) with a 1.07 WHIP. He’s also punched out 236 batters at 9.93 per nine, and for the second straight year his K/BB ratio is over 5.25 at 5.49 (he’s walking a mere 1.81 per nine). One of the few signs of some struggle is the fact that his ground ball rate is at a four year low (42.3 percent versus career 45.2 percent). He will likely be slightly undervalued next year. Don’t make the mistake of looking past him.
Shelby Miller gave up seven runs Sunday, four earned, as he fell to 0-16 over his last 24 starts. He hasn’t pitched great in that time with a 3.77 ERA, but come on Braves. Maybe he finally cracked. ''I saw a young man out there ... who's human,'' Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. ''Here's a guy who's gone through a lot of adversity this year, and today he had a chance to go out there in the fifth inning and it just unraveled on him.” Miller has a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over his last five starts. He cannot be trusted in any setup and it would be wise for you to sit him for his final start of the season.
Henry Owens has made 10 starts for the Red Sox this season and the results are positive… for a rookie. The numbers don’t stand out in the fantasy game at all, but it’s still been a successful
season. Owens has a 4-3 record with a 3.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He’s also struck out 7.06 batters per nine while walking 3.07 per nine. Not a fan of the 0.72 GB/FB ratio, that has to come down, but there’s a lot of solid work here. In three of his last four starts he’s allowed one or zero runs as a nice cherry on top. A nice finish to solid work in his first taste of the bigs.
Ervin Santana isn’t eligible for the playoffs because of his offseason PED suspension, but he’s doing his best to finish the year strong regardless. Over 16 starts this season he’s sporting a mere 4.10 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP for the Twins, and that’s not good stuff. Ditto the 7.04 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9 rates which are very average. All those numbers totally cover up some excellent work of late. Over his last six outings he’s been, well, outstanding. He’s not just 5-0 but he has a 1.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s also struck out 44 batters in 43 innings while walking a mere 11 batters. Wins, ratios, strikeouts, what more could you ask for?
Yet another example of why win-loss records really don’t tell the story. Max Scherzer has been terrific this season. Through 219.2 innings he’s posted a 2.91 ERA, a hundredth above his career best mark, with a 0.96 WHIP, 10.61 strikeouts per nine and a career best 1.39 walk rate per nine. Despite all that he’s 13-12 as the Nationals haven’t done much to support him. Should we move to wins+quality starts next season instead of just wins (Ron Shandler was the first to propose the idea I believe)?
Luis Severino has made 10 starts for the Yankees. His 95.5 mph fastball has been thrown 52 percent of the time, and the results have been pretty darn solid. Too many walks, 3.58 per nine, but the rest of what’s going on with the young righty is pretty solid stuff. Luis has 8.13 strikeouts per nine and he’s generated a 50 percent ground ball rate. His 2.77 ERA plays in any league, and that 1.27 WHIP is slightly below the league average as well. Like Santana, he’s been on his game allowing two or fewer earned runs in 3-straight outings and six of seven.
James Shields has made 33 starts for the 8th straight season. He’s hit 200-innings in each of those outings. He’s won 13 games for the 6th straight season. He’s struck out 216 batters, the third time in five seasons that he’s reached 200 strikeouts. He’s also punched out at least 180 each of the past six years (including 2015 as he has 216 strikeouts). Unfortunately he has a 3.91 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The ERA is a five year high, ditto the WHIP. Largely to blame are two facts. (1) Shields has a 2.27 BB/9 rate for the course of his career. This season that number has spiked to 3.60 (hHe has never had a season with a mark over 2.74, his total back in 2006 when he was a rookie). Shocking growth in the walks actually. (2) His homer rate has exploded. Shields has a 1.11 HR/9 rate for his career. The mark has been under 1.00 each of the past four seasons. This year the mark is 1.47. In 2010 the mark was 1.50 so we’ve seen this before, but the move to the National League, and to Petco Park, makes this turn extremely shocking.
Alex Wood lost Sunday to fall to 11-12 on the year. It wasn’t just a loss. He got blasted for eight runs over 5.1 innings. That outing brought his Dodgers ratios up to 4.55 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 11 outings (his Braves numbers were 3.54 and 1.41). It’s been a terribly disappointing season for Wood, but at least he’s made 31 starts on the season. Hard to trust him right now it is though. He’s allowed four homers his last four starts, and though he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven outings, he allowed eight and six earned runs in the other two outings.
Chris Young has been a standout performer this season, after he was last season as well. Somehow Young went 12-9 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last season for the Mariners. This season he’s been even better. Young has a 3.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11-6 record. Young will make one more start this season against the Twins. The 36 year old has made 17 starts out of his 33 outings and here is the breakdown.
16 relief apps: 3-0, 2.59 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
17 starts: 8-6, 3.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
A hell of an out of nowhere season in AL-only leagues, and a passable spot starter in mixed leagues as well.
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