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IS ERA RELIABLE?

No. Year after year the anecdotal data will tell you that judging a pitcher based solely on his ERA is a poor bet to result in a highly accurate picture. A more accurate way to consider pitchers performance is to pull back and look at the skills that make up that pitcher.

WHAT IS BETTER THAN ERA?

How about a series of measures which can all be found in our Stats City Glossary. We will focus on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in this article (as noted, FIP is not definitive but simply one of the better ways to break down hurlers performance). What is FIP?

A pitching measure that is more accurate at depicting the performance of a pitcher than ERA. FIP only takes into account the events that are directly in the control of the pitcher (K, BB, HR, HBP). In effect, FIP builds off the work of Voros McCracken in DIPS ERA by trying to allow the FIP number to be representative of the events that are directly in a pitcher's control versus those that he cannot such as (a) how effective are his fielders? (b) where are those players being positioned by coaches etc?

COMPARING FIP TO ERA

The following group of pitchers have FIP marks below their raw ERA. This indicates that the overall skills of the pitcher are better than their poor ERA. These pitchers make, in a general sense, solid targets if you’re looking at potential turnarounds over the final month of the season. Here are some options.

Gio Gonzalez (4.11 ERA, 3.20 FIP)

Gio has been a mess of late, after really nice run (from June 21st to August 10th he made eight starts going 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA). Over his last three starts he’s been a total mess allowing 16 runs (earned) leading to 14 unearned (10.22 ERA) as he’s also allowed 20 hits over the 12.1 innings. Overall his numbers suggest – add him. His career number suggest – add him. His work the last three games suggests caution.

Jeff Samardzija (4.75 ERA, 4.06 FIP)

I know the point of this section of the article is to say “look at me” – but I wrote about Samardzija in the Daily Trends piece Wednesday and said stay away. Still suggesting the same thing here. Remember what I wrote at the top – it’s ever about just one measure. In this instance the totality of the picture tells me no to trust FIP.

Taijuan Walker (4.73 ERA, 4.06 FIP)

Walker has an impressive 139 strikeouts over 146.2 innings, and he’s walked a mere 36 batters with the result being a 2.21 per nine mark. That leaves him with a 3.9 K/BB ratio. That’s really strong work. One issue has been the big fly as he’s allowed 22 of them, but he’s only allowed one on three starts as things start to normalize. We’ve seen and up down from him, but this arm is worth taking a risk on provided that Walker still is allowed to pitch by the Mariners and not shut down (he’s at 146.2 innings this season after tossing 120.1 last season). The guy has a big arm. Big.

Wade Miley (4.51 ERA, 3.91 FIP)

Dreadful to start the season, Miley has improved. Still, he’s allowed five earned runs or more in three of his last six games so it’s not like he’s bringing any type of consistency. At least he’s not walking anyone – two over his last two starts and six his last five starts – so he’s doing a solid job avoiding beating himself. Really though, Miley is just a streaming option, nothing more.

Here are some pitchers you might considering avoiding over the final month of the campaign.

Hector Santiago (3.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP)

This one should be obvious. Santiago is listing now, a fact that can be seen in his last two outings during which time he’s allowed nine runs (seven earned) over just eight innings. Santiago has also allowed a total of nine homers his last seven games to push his season long HR/9 mark to 1.32. Santiago allows far too many fly balls, that 51.7 percent rate is scary bad and it’s not a shock in the least that his HR/9 rate is ascending. Overall his walk rate is 3.07 per nine. Blah. His .257 BABIP is too low as well, and he’s at a career-high 149.2 innings. More regression is likely coming.

Scott Kazmir (2.39 ERA, 3.34 FIP)

Kazmir has a 0.67 HR/9 mark. That’s a career best since 2005. He has a .264 BABIP. That mark has never been that low (career .299). His career line drive rate is 19 percent. Currently that rate is 21 percent. He has a 78 percent left on base percentage (the mark for his career is 73.3 percent). One final warning. He has still, at least until he throws 13 more innings, ever had 160-innings pitched in back-to-back seasons. Be careful.

Marco Estrada (3.27 ERA, 4.12 FIP)

Estrada is 11-7 with a 1.09 WHIP. There’s just no way his skills support that WHIP, though he has performed very well. Here’s what you need to know. (1) His 6.89 K/9 rate would be a career low, he started in 2008, and way off his 8.15 career mark. (2) His 2.78 BB/9 rate is above his career mark of 2.50 and would be a 4-year high. (3) He’s given up a lot of homers, 1.04 per nine, but that’s well below his 1.34 career mark. (4) His .233 BABIP is unsustainable long term. His career mark is .268. Smoke and mirrors to some extent. Just a little.

Sonny Gray (2.10 ERA, 3.22 FIP)

Gray has dropped his ERA a full run from last season. How many guys post a 2.10 mark? How many guys post a left on base percentage of 81.4 percent? Answer to both is not many. It’s also impossible to think that he’s going to finish this season with a 14.1 percent line drive rate (career 17.0 percent). It’s also fair to point out that after posting a GB/FB ratio over 2.00 his first two seasons that there’s been a little pull back in 2015 (1.76).

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Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).