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Sorry I’ve missed a few days with this report. Behind the scenes we’ve been ramping up our video work, and I’ve spent a ton of time the last week helping to wrap up the soon to be released 2015 Fantasy Alarm Football Draft Guide. It’s pretty spectacular by the way. My apologies on the less than ideal coverage for baseball. Let’s get back to it.

FINALLY FULLFILLING EXPECTATIONS

Cameron Maybin might be traded, rumors are swirling everywhere that the Braves might move him, but for now let’s focus on the production.

Maybin is batting .294 with a .363 OBP and .416 SLG. He’s never bettered any of those numbers in a season with 100 plate appearances. In fact, his career numbers pale in comparison (.252/.315/.371). Some credit goes to an improved BB/K rate (0.53 versus career 0.35), a slightly elevated BABIP (.343 versus career .316) and a 23.4 percent line drive rate. There’s the big rub, the last number. For his career Maybin owns a 17.0 percent line drive rate. Since 2009 he’s only had one season above 17 percent, a career best 19.0 percent in 2013. It strains credulity to think that Maybin will continue along his current line drive rate.

Maybin has seven homers in 255 at-bats. His career best mark is nine homers in 516 at-bats in 2011. Pretty obvious to note this ain’t gonna continue. Maybin has a 22 percent fly ball rate right now. Not only is that well below his 28 percent career mark it’s also the lowest mark of his career. How are you on pace to nearly double your previous best homer mark in a season in which you’re hitting fewer fly balls than ever before? Yep, the HR/F ratio must be bonkers, right? Tis. For his career Maybin owns an 8.9 percent. He’s nearly doubled that pace this season at 15.6 percent. Truthfully pretty nuts for a guy who, the last three seasons, owns a mark that would total 18.3 percent.

Maybin has 15 steals, and that’s likely the only fantasy number that will continue moving forward. Maybin stole 40 and 26 bags in his two seasons of 500 at-bats and he’s one fast fella.

Maybin has been a star given that he likely wasn’t drafted in your mixed league. Ride the wave but realize it’s about to crash into the beach. He’s simply not as good as he’s shown though there is always the chance – IF he can stay healthy (he’s appeared in more than 100 games just twice in six years) – that he produces the best marks of his career.

HOW IS THIS HAPPENING?

Chris Colabello has appeared in 51 games for the Blue Jays (he’s appeared 11 times at first base and 42 in the outfield – and yes, that means he played both spots in a game). Not that this makes any sense to do but let’s do it anyway. If we triple his current pace, assuming he appeared in 153 games, he would hit 21 homers with 93 RBIs and 102 runs scored. Considering that he’s also batting .335 with a .505 SLG pretty sure we could say that his effort to this point has been OUTSTANDING. Is it something he will continue to do moving forward? You off your rocker? Still, the data is impressive.

He’s hitting .381 with a 1.078 OPS against lefties.

He’s hitting .322 with a .823 OPS against righties.

He’s hitting .352 at home and .315 on the road.

His OPS is nearly .200 points higher at home (.966 vs .772).

He’s batting .313 on grass and .351 on turf.

He’s batting .328 inside and .338 outside.

So why, given all that excellent work, is regression coming?

It’s obvious. He’s not Miguel Cabrera.

His 0.20 BB/K rate is terrible and it’s exceedingly difficult to hit .300 with a mark that low.

He has a .436 BABIP. Come on.

He has a 27.1 percent line drive rate. Come on.

Over 165 big league games he’s hit .256 with 20 homers, 87 RBIs and 65 runs scored. Even with his hot start it’s not even close to a lock that he’ll hit 20 homers with 87 RBIs this season. Should better the average by a bit, but note that a massive pull back is coming there given his line drive and BABIP that would both lead baseball in about 97 percent of the seasons ever played.

IS THIS HAPPENING?

Gregory Polanco is an impressive physical talent who is on pace to score 74 runs while stealing 34 bases in his first full season with the Pirates. That’s impressive stuff. Alas, that might be the end of the positivity. Polanco is hitting just .231 on the season with a mere .300 OBP that might only be considered passable when you note that he has a .330 SLG. He’s also simply not playing when a lefty is on the bump – he’s hitting .122 with a .304 OPS in 43 plate appearances versus lefties – so he’s hard to start in leagues where you don’t have the ability to manipulate your lineup on a daily basis. The team still believes in Polanco and he will not be sent down to the minors according to GM Neal Huntington. “We believe Gregory Polanco is going to be a quality major league player but there are growing pains. There is an evolution for a young player,” Huntington said. “And [a demotion for him] hasn’t even been a conversation.” In mixed leagues I would continue to hold if possible – that is unless you’re in a 10 teamer in which case you can move on.

NO ONE HAS NOTICED

Gerardo Parra might be dealt soon as his name frequently comes up in the same circle of clubs that are kicking the tires on Maybin. Parra plays strong defense and his offensive games has been darn impressive this season as he’s hitting .308. Moreover, his last 24 games he’s performing like he was Ty Cobb hitting .375 with a .415 OBP and .573 SLG. He’s also hit four homers, stolen five bases, and scored 19 times in that run. Yeah, if he’s on waivers in your league, even a 10 teamer, he shouldn’t be. At the same time you’ve already missed “it” if he hasn’t been on your team. Parra is a solid big leaguer but in terms of his fantasy game his outlook just isn’t that exciting. Parra has a career best of 10 homers. His best steal total is 15. He’s hit .290 a couple of times, but his career mark is .277. His career OBP is .327 and his SLG is .402. Since his career began in 2009 here are the league averages for an outfielder: .268/.332/.426. Yep, not even league average has he been.

Be careful that you don’t expect a second half to match his first half. He just doesn’t profile as a fella that can keep things going at this pace.

IWAKUMA RETURNS

Hisashi Iwakuma will make his first start for the Mariners Monday after being out of the lineup since April 20 with a strained back muscle. He then picked up a blister that caused some minor concern, but he will be good to go and the Mariners don’t figure to have any restriction placed on him as long as his performance is solid. “He’s back to 91 (mph),” manager Lloyd McClendon said after noting how Iwakuma’s velocity was down earlier in the year (around 88-89 on most of his fastballs).  

Iwakuma was bad in three starts (0-1, 6.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), but I’m surprised how many folks just don’t’ seem to understand how good he’s been. Here is how Iwakuma ranks amongst all pitchers since the start of the 2013 season (minimum 400 innings pitched).

 

4th in baseball in walks per nine (1.43)

5th in baseball in K/BB (5.30)

5th in baseball in baserunners per nine (9.46)

6th in baseball in WHIP (1.04)

7th in baseball in winning percentage (.644)

18th in baseball in ERA (3.19)

Probably should be giving the 34 year old righty a bit more love…

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).