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HAMILTON CAN’T HIT – BUT CAN RUN

Billy Hamilton still cannot hit. Here are the numbers.

2014: .250/.292/.355

2015: .224/.273/.295

I’m sorry, but that is flat out pathetic. Amongst batters with at least 250 plate appearances…

Ten men have a worse batting average. Mark Trumbo is better at .227 (more on Trumbo in a bit).

Amazingly there are 11 men who have a worse OBP but a guy like Nick Castellanos (.274) is better.

His SLG is third worst in baseball (Alexei Ramirez and Eric Sogard). Omar Infante is better (.314).

Hamilton still hasn’t learned how to utilize his skills either. I talked in the preseason about his poor 1.11 GB/FB ratio from 2014. I pleaded with Billy to hit the ball on the ground more. He hasn’t done that, at all. His fly ball rate is up about 0.6 tenths of a point and his GB/FB ratio is down at 1.05. That’s a league average number. In many instances that is alright. In this case it’s terrible. He need to jack up his ground ball rate by 10 percent. Until he starts to do that his offense will continue to be terrible. With his speed, how on earth does Hamilton have a .258 BABIP? Pathetic.

So you are paying a huge price to roster the speed that Hamilton brings. Oh, he’s elite at that aspect of the game. On the year he leads baseball with 40 steals and he’s only been caught six times. That’s fantastic (87 percent success rate). In the month of June he has 19 steals. Ben Revere has 18 steals all season long. No Red has had 40 steals before the All-Star game since Deion Sanders had 41 in 1997. Hamilton is also the first player with 40 steals in his team’s first 75 games since Roger Cedeno had 41 in 1999.

Most of the time anymore Hamilton is hitting 9th, a spot he’s been in 27 times compared to 35 batting leadoff (he’s hit 8th five times). Given his bat and offensive game he should be hitting in the lower third of the lineup. Given the lack of plate appearances, the lack of an idea of how to get on base, Hamilton has scored just 37 times. The guy has 40 steals and 37 runs? I mean, Ender Inciarte has 39 runs scored.

There isn’t one player on offense that is more of a one category player than Hamilton. You’re paying a high price for those thefts.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH MARK TRUMBO?

Mark Trumbo stinks as people ask ‘what is wrong with Trumbo?’ Some thoughts.

I will be the first to admit that he has not lived up to expectations, and he’s been awful with the Mariners (.151/.184/.205).

Trumbo is a flawed hitter and it’s like people have forgotten that somehow. I mean, when a guy is a .245 hitter a .227 average isn’t that bad. That’s .018 points off “normal.” Hanley Ramirez is .017 points below his career mark yet there is no outrage there. Trumbo is .030 points off his career .295 OBP. Ryan Braun is .030 points off his career norm right now. Trumbo has a .417 SLG, .039 points off his career average. Kole Calhoun is .046 off his career norm. The point is that Trumbo really isn’t that far off “normal.” It’s your expectations that are out of whack.

‘But Ray, Trumbo stinks.’ Does he? Trumbo is on pace for 21 homers and 60 RBIs. Admittedly that does stink. But hot close is he to being the guy who has hit at least 29 homers with 87 RBIs in each of the three seasons in which he’s had 525 at-bats? Think about this…

A 30 homer bat hits 1.15 homers a week given a 26 week big league season. That’s nothing. Let’s suppose that Trumbo hits three homers the next five games. That would give him 13 homers with 81 games left. He would be two homers off his career pace. That’s it. If he were to hit 1.25 homers a week the rest of the way that would be 16.25 homers, which when added to 13 homers would give him 29.25 homers this season. Totally doable.

As for the average, again, he’s not a strong option there. If he had six more hits, that’s just two more a month (247 total at-bats), Trumbo would be hitting .251. That would be six points above his career average. He’s just not that far off.

Trumbo is what he is. A flawed power hitter who is a couple of hot weeks from being back on pace to be the guy he’s always been.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH NELSON CRUZ?

I get this question all the time. My response? There is nothing wrong with Nelson Cruz.

Cruz is on pace to hit .305 with 41 homers, 98 RBIs and a .920 OPS.

Last year Cruz hit .271-40-108 with a .858 OPS.

See what I’m saying? Cruz is on pace to be better than last season. He won’t hold on to this effort though. Nope. What were you expecting folks? Honestly? I’m telling you… I would be stunned if he hit 40 homers or hit .300 this season. Stunned. Yes Cruz has hit .235 with one homer in June but even with that massive drop off – he’s still on pace to better than last year – his best season at the dish. There are more cold times ahead – more. Cruz is a .271 hitter who is batting .305. The last time he hit .275 was 2010. Cruz has a .368 OBP. That mark wasn’t even .335 the last four seasons. Cruz has a 24.4 K-rate this season. That would be his worst mark since 2007. Cruz has a .357 BABIP right now, .054 points above his career mark of .303.

More pull back is coming folks.

GALLO GONE

Joey Gallo has been sent back to the minors – to Triple-A Round Rock – as the Rangers activated Josh Hamilton from the DL. Let me be clear. I told you. Nothing more needs to be said. The numbers…

.218 AVG
.306 OBP
.448 SLG

Those numbers were right in line with my expectations. In fact, maybe even a bit better.

43 strikeouts in 87 at-bats

Nearly fifty percent of his at-bats ended in a strikeout. You CANNOT be an everyday player in baseball doing that.

GYORKO BACK

Cory Spangenberg had been seeing a lot of time at second base for the Padres with Jedd Gyorko trying to hone his craft at Triple-A El Paso. Things are a changing. Spangenberg has been sent to the DL with a knee contusion. That means Gyorko is back with a chance to reclaim a position of priority with the Padres. Gyorko was awful this year, and in fact, going back to the start of last season he’s been awful. Compare.

2013 (125 games): .249-23-63-62 w/ a .745 OPS

14-15 (157 games: .211-12-62-46 w/ a .610 OPS

Some hope for the former near elite level prospect… Gyorko was batting .279 with four homers in 16 games a Triple-A. Cautiously tip your toe into the water with Gyorko in deep mixed leagues if you need some middle infield help. Realize though that at this point he’s an extremely flawed player who has a couple of weeks to prove he’s worthy of a significant role with the Padres. Better only be adding him if it’s a 15-team mixed league… OK, maybe only NL-only leagues.


Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).