DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
WHO IS JUSTIN BOUR?
Michael Morse is on the DL with a right finger sprain. When on the field this year the former masher was batting an anemic .211/.268/.289. It’s hard to think that the Marlins relegate him to a mere bench option the rest of the way, but with the way that Justin Bour is currently hitting we have to consider the possibility.
Bour stands 6’4” and weighs 250 lbs cutting the figure of an immense power hitter. Drafted in the 25th round in 2009 out of George Mason University, Bour had a couple of big power seasons in the minors. In fact, over 660 minor league games he averaged about 20 homers and 90 RBIs per 500 at-bats and over 117 games at Triple-A he hit .303 with 19 homer and 77 RBIs. As impressively he only struck out 63 times at Triple-A, an extremely low number for a guy his size and one who does possess pop. This season, in 29 games with the Marlins, he’s killing it with a .369 average, .414 OBP and .646 SLG percentage. He’s also struck out only 11 times in 65 at-bats and generally has been a boss.
Now the negative.
He’s already 27 years old. He had barely better than average bat speed. He has a long swing to generate his power, and that simply doesn’t speak to him ever hitting .300 at the big league level over an extended period of time. So you ride the hot streak until it end. Just note that it could end tomorrow, and when Morse is healthy it’s going to be tough for Bour to be in the lineup on a daily basis.
DID YOU MISS THE LAST TWO WEEKS…
Francisco Cervelli has a .483 wOBA the past two weeks (for more on wOBA). Cervelli has no pop but he did bat .438 with a .538 OBP in that time. You could do a hell of a lot worse for a second catcher in mixed leagues.
Zack Cozart has stopped hitting. What a shock. Players find their way over the course of a season. That means that regression to the mean is a phrase you should never totally forget about. In the case of Cozart he jumped out to a hot start and everyone got all giddy. My response when asked was “why when this guy has been one of the worst offensive players in the NL the past three seasons?” People scoffed and ignored. Whoops. Over the last two weeks he’s hitting .158 with a .398 OPS. Zack’s average has tumbled all the way down to .266 for the season. He also has one homer and one steal over his last 20 games. The party is over folks.
Maikel Franco started out blasting… but that’s quickly come to an end. A recent cold spell has dropped his OPS to .581 this season and over 124 career big
league plate appearances he has two homers, is batting .186 and has a .497 OPS. The raw 22 year old has only struck out nine times in 62 at-bats this season but his overall game has the look/feel of a guy who might still need more refinement on the farm.
Evan Gattis is on pace for 35 homers and 95 RBIs. He has four homers, 11 RBIs and 11 runs over his last 13 games.
The Dee Gordon slowdown has begun. Over his last 15 games he’s hitting .258 with a .290 OBP and a sickly .258 SLG. He’s going to come crashing down. Not saying you bail on him, the speed will continue to play (he has eight thefts in the cold stretch), but he’s bat is much more likely to maintain the pace of the last two weeks than the first six.
Billy Hamilton cannot hit. Said it over and over this preseason. He’s batting .223 with a .262 OBP. Atrocious. Until he hits the ball on the ground more things aren’t going to improve. He had a 1.11 GB/FB ratio last year that is a nearly identical 1.14 this season.
Matt Joyce has been panty waste for the majority of the season. However, he’s finally remembered to set his alarm clock and he’s actually started to hit. Over the last 12 games he’s gone deep three times, hit .286 and remembered how to get on base with a .444 OBP. He’s still capable of being a 5/6th outfield option in mixed leagues even after his horrible start.
Matt Kemp hit .326/.357/.478 in April and everything was right in the world. In May a spell must have been cast upon him as he hit like, gulp, Jedd Gyorko with a .186/.225/.212 line. Guys go into funks, happens to everyone, but a .437 OPS and 31 Ks in 29 games? I’m still buying low on Kemp who from the All-Star break last season through the end of April this year he hit .314 with a .933 OPS, 18 homers and 70 RBIs over just 361 plate appearances. The cost is likely to be negligible as well aiding in the quest to add his services.
Ian Kinsler has hit .125 his last 13 games. He finally hit his first homer of the year, but the truth is that he’s had a pretty rough go of it to this point in some respects. His .350 OBP is slightly above his .344 career mark, but the single homer and .271 average leave a lot to be desired. Never a big HR/F ratio guy his current mark of 1.5 percent is laughable after a mark of seven percent the last three seasons. He does have six steals putting him on pace for a 9th straight season with 15 thefts and his total of 29 runs scored would equate to about 90 runs over a full season. He’s averaged 103 runs a season the past four years.
Manny Machado has hit .240 with a .296 OBP over his last 13 games yet everyone is all excited about him. Why? Through 49 games he does have a better than expected eight homers and the seven steals has been a huge boost no doubt. OK, so the guy is on a 20/20 pace, I get it. But be careful you don’t get swept away in the hype. He’s only hitting .270 on the year and his .333 OBP doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Solid and the power/speed thing is nice, but he hasn’t “arrived” just yet.
Jimmy Paredes has been an outright star this season, and given his waiver-wire cost in all but deep AL-only leagues he’s at the front of player of the year in terms of return on investment. He’s also batting .263 with a .295 OBP the past 14 games with a .284 wOBA. His 26.1 percent line drive rate and .387 BABIP are due for a huge tumble as we move forward.
Trevor Plouffe has a .357 average, three homers and 11 RBIs his last 11 games. His HR/F ratio is at 15.3 percent, above his 11.8 percent career rate. If he keeps that number up he could make a run to 20 homers for the second time (he had 14 each of the last two years). He had a pretty quiet 80 RBIs last year didn’t he?
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).