DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.

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Chase Anderson, 1-1, 2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.16 K/9

The K-rate is an obvious concern with Anderson since last year the mark was 8.27 per nine. The reason for the fall? His velocity is up 0.2 mph. He is throwing his curveball about seven percent less than last season while increasing his 2-seam fastball rate by about 10 percent. That’s certainly part of it. You can see it in his walk rate as well. It only stands to reason that Anderson would be able to better locate a fastball than his curve. Check out the reduction in his walk rate from 3.15 per nine last season down to 2.36 this season. We will have to see if he can keep that up, but it’s encouraging. A bit dubious that he’s going to be able to hold on to his 4.2 percent HR/F mark after last year’s 13.6 percent rate though.

Mixed league: SP 5/6 type

 

Wei-Yin Chen, 1-3, 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.89 K/9

A pitcher and not a thrower, Chen is solid for the Orioles. Not many seemed to notice his 16-6 record and 3.54 ERA last season, and he’s well on pace for a similarly impressive effort this year. His 6.89 K/9 rate is smack on his career mark of 6.88 do he’s not a force, but he doesn’t often beat himself with the free pass either (2.54 BB/9 this season, 2.31 for his career). He can be homer prone because he allows so many fly balls, so it would be wise to keep an eye on that fly ball rate that is currently elevated (46 percent vs. 41 percent for his career).

Mixed league: SP 5/6 type

 

Shane Greene, 4-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 5.74 K/9

Concerns about his arm continue to dissipate after he allowed two runs over 6.1 innings to the Brewers Wednesday. That effort helped to lower his season long ERA to 4.05 and his WHIP to 1.16. I’ve said this before but here it is again. In nine starts Greene’s allowed two or fewer earned runs six times. In fact, if you remove his three bombings from April 24th to May 5th his other six starts are spectacular: 0.85 ERA, 0.78 WHIP. Read that again --- those are his ratios over his six “good” outings. The 5.74 K/9 rate is disturbing after last year’s 9.27 mark but if you want to look upon the upside he has 10 punchouts over his last 11.1 innings.

Mixed league: SP 5/6 type

 

Jessie Hahn, 1-4, 4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.25 K/9

Boo. Not what I had hoped for. The only numbers that I see that impress me follow: 2.22 BB/9, 50 percent ground ball rate. You can have a long career throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the yard – his career HR/9 mark is an impressive 0.46 – but his lack of strikeouts hurts, as does the fact that through eight starts he’s only lasted six innings three times. Still a bright future, but right now it’s more of the wait-and-see variety.

Mixed league: SP 6/7 type

 

Joe Kelly, 1-3, 5.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.18 K/9

A hard thrower, entering this season Kelly had a K/9 rate of 6.05. This year that mark is up to 8.18 per nine. He’s cut his curveball rate from 17 percent last season down to 11 percent this year while doubling his slider rate to 14 percent (6.2 last year). Is that enough to completely explain the increase? Not for me. He still has poor ratios, and his 3.61 BB/9 rate is more than a half batter worse than league average. He’s also holding a 47 percent ground ball rate after 3-straight years over 51 percent. Great arm, but remain cautious.

Mixed league: SP 6/7 type

 

Dallas Keuchel, 6-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.40 K/9

Over his last 38 starts the numbers are stupendous: 18-9, 2.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. So why am I so nervous? I just can’t see this continuing. His current 6.40 K/9 rate is two tenths below last season and well below ideal. His 2.78 BB/9 rate is more than half a batter above last season. His one homer in nine start pace isn’t sustainable. Is he really going to maintain his 64 percent ground ball rate? That is stratospheric for a starting pitcher. His 19.5 percent line drive rate is two percent higher than last season and a league average mark. I still think the odds are 50/50 that he’s able to post an ERA under 3.00 this year, and without a big strikeout mark he’s just not an elite fantasy option.

Mixed league: SP 3/4 type

 

Tim Lincecum, 4-2, 2.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.80 K/9

Lincecum is the girl you can’t quit. She treats you like trash but she’s so hot you always give her another shot. The last two years Lincecum has been worse than league average. I finally moved on. Now he’s pulling me back in. Reasons not to buy in. (1) His 6.80 K/9 rate is horrible and would continue his troubling strikeout trend. Here are his K/9 marks the last three seasons: 9.19, 8.79 and 7.75. (2) His 3.97 BB/9 rate stinks, and it is well above the 3.55 mark he posted the last two seasons. (3) There’s no way he can continue to keep the long ball in check like this. After averaging slightly more than a homer per nine innings the last three seasons the mark is sitting at 0.19 (one in 47.2 innings). (4) Here are his mph velocities the last four seasons: 92.2, 90.4, 90.2 and 89.6. The mark is 87.6 this season.

Mixed league: SP 6/7 type

 

Kyle Lohse, 3-4, 5.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.04 K/9

The ERA and record stink, but seeds of interest are all around. (1) His 7.04 K/9 mark would be the best of his career. Not going to hold on to it, but the fact is you have to be heartened by it. (2) His 2.01 walks per nine is just off his 2.04 mark last season and would be a 5th straight year under 2.05. (3) His .277 BABIP is lower than his career .293 mark. (4) Over his last six outings he’s sporting a 3.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 3.56 K/BB ratio. If he’s on waivers think hard about adding him.

Mixed league: SP 5/6 type

 

Carlos Martinez, 4-2, 4.08 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.32 K/9

The kid has a huge arm but just last season (4.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) the ratios are blahtastic. In fact, they are almost identical to last year. He’s upped the strikeout total to a rate you would expect given his power arm, but the dude is he walking a lot of guys (4.27 per nine). Thanks to all the wildness check this out. Over his last four starts he’s thrown an average of 99 pitches an outing leading to an average of a mere five innings per outing (he’s only recorded 18 outs once). He’s just not going deep into games putting his ability to win games in doubt. I say it all the time – give me strikeouts and grounders (51 percent ground ball rate). The missing ingredient for Martinez though is control.

Mixed league: SP 5/6 type

 

Carlos Rodon, 1-0, 4.03 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 8.46 K/9
He has a huge arm. Duh. I’ve been writing about it all year. Fact is though that he’s a mess of unproductivity. He’s a fine work of art that is laid out but only half painted. The arm is huge but so are the walks, an unsightly 7.66 BB/9 speaks to that. It’s actually even worse than that as his mark in three starts is 8.44 (he’s walked 15 batters in 16 innings). That’s just hideous. It could all snap into place at any time, but right now he’s worse than Ubaldo Jimenez ever was.

Mixed league: SP 6/7 type

 

Adam Warren, 2-3, 4.26 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 5.48 K/9

You can tell by the above numbers there’s really nothing to suggest that Warren is anything other than a streaming option. His strikeout total is deficient after being above 8.6 last year in the bullpen, and the transition to starting has also caused a huge bump in his walk rate (2.75 to 3.65 this season). You cannot have long-term success with a 1.50 K/BB ratio. Really don’t need to get much deeper than that. I do like the 1.40 GB/FB ratio but his “stuff” is just lacking.

Mixed league: SP 7/8 type

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).