Daily Trends: May 18, 2015

 

 

I have a source. I don’t have many, but I do have one, and he’s got an inside man with the Rangers. I’m being told, even if the data may not support this call, that Keone Kela is the guy the Rangers want working the 9th inning if Neftali Feliz can’t handle things. However, Kela is a bit of a mess at the moment, so he may not be the guy in the short-term (also echoed by my source). Here’s what we know for certain.

 

(1) Feliz is no longer the closer.

(2) No one has been named the closer to take the vacancy up.

 

“I talked to those guys this morning collectively and individually and told them, that as we stand now, nobody has a specific role,” manager Jeff Banister said. “We will find the best match for this club one inning at a time. We will treat it that way for now and see where it goes.”

 

Here are the hopefuls.

 

Feliz has converted six of nine save attempts. It’s only 16.1 innings, but as we know when you post a 5.51 ERA and 1.71 WHIP working the 9th inning you simply cannot maintain your role closing down games. It’s nice to see his K/9 back up to 8.27, but the walk rate is nearly four per nine and he’s allowed seven homers in his last 48 innings. The .358 BABIP will come down, but it’s going to have to do that in a supporting role. He will have to run off a series of clean innings in order to get another 9th inning look.

 

Kela has a plus fastball, like 95 plus miles an hour. The rookie has only 17.2 innings of big league work this season with 15 strikeouts and a tad high 3.57 BB/9 ratio. Last season in the minors the 22 year old saved 10 games last season at High-A and Double-A with a 2.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 over 44 outings. He certainly has the pedigree and stuff to work the ninth, though he is lacking professional experience with only about 120 innings under his belt. 

 

Shawn Tolleson has no saves in 122 big league outings. A former Dodgers, Tolleson has struck out an impressive 24 batters this season over 17.1 innings, and unlike Kela he’s kept the walks in control with just three all year. Like Kela he also doesn’t own an impressive GB/FB ratio (1.00 for his career) and that has led to a moderately inflated 1.14 HR/9 mark to this point of his career. But he does have one thing going for him – he’s pitching the best of the group at the moment.

 

Ross Ohlendorf has zero saves in 125 big league outings. He’s also made 80 starts so the bullpen thing isn’t exactly his bag baby (Austin Powers drop). 

 

 

Scheppers has dealt with injuries this season and was recalled to take the spot of disabled Ross Detwiler. He owns a huge arm but has yet to live up to expectations. Scheppers throws hard, and his fastball/cutter combo can be deadly. During his minor league work he has a 9.4 K/9 mark, but there are still warts all throughout his professional career. Still, the skills are tantalizing, also toss in the 49 percent ground ball rate to improve things, but he’s not even struck out seven per nine the past 2+ years, and his 3.24 BB/9 rate since the start of 2013 ain’t great either.

 

Tolleson is the man to own if you are looking short term. Alas, it’s hard to have much confidence in him long term as a guy who will run away with the 9th inning job. Feliz could always surge and regain the role, and as I noted the Rangers do like Kela for the spot long term, so be careful with the way you work waivers when adding Tolleson since his path to unencumbered work in the 9th inning is far from clear.

 

Brandon Belt… welcome to the party. Over the last three games Belt has three 3-hit outings. He’s also hit three home runs, scored eight times and driven in seven runners. That’s a heck of a weekend wallop he put on the Reds, and the surge has lifted his slash line to all-star levels (.321/.392/.509). Who is Belt? He’s a strong option as a corner infielder in mixed leagues. A nice athlete who has dealt with health woes, Belt could approach his 2013 performance this season (.289-17-67-76) and there’s hope that he might be able to offer a bit more if he can just stay on the field forming a strong middle of the lineup in San Francisco with Buster Posey and Hunter Pence. Belt shouldn’t be on waivers in mixed leagues… hard to think he is after the weekend he just posted… and there’s potential there for him to easily challenge for a top-15 spot at the position. 

 

Welcome to the cleanup role Kole Calhoun. Calhoun will be the new cleanup man for the Angels according to Mike Scioscia. 

In 240 career games here are the spots in the order that Calhoun has filled. 

 

1st: 142 games

2nd: 15 games

3rd: 6 games

4th: 9 games

5th: 8 games

6th: 18 games

7th: 11 games

8th: 10 games

9th: 9 games

 

So why shift him to cleanup? First off, he’s been a heck of a hitter this year with a .305 batting average, .359 OBP and .434 SLG. Second, Albert Pujols just isn’t the same right now, so getting a guy behind him to cause some concern for pitchers can only help (Pujols has been down this season with a terrible .235/.286/.426 slash line). By the way, Pujols hit a homer Monday with Calhoun behind him. Calhoun might run a bit less in his news spot, but his run production could certainly improve.

 

By the by… Erick Aybar will now bat leadoff for the Angels. He’s hitting a solid .273 on the year, but his OBP is .318 and his SLG is .309. That’s terrible. He has been much better, hot is a fair word, over the last 12 game. OK, he’s been really, really impressive after a horrible April. How hot? Check out the slash line the last 12 games (.422/.435/.489). Obviously if he sticks in the top spot that’s a nice boost to his value.

 

Here is the way the top of the lineup played out Monday for the Angels: Erick Aybar, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Calhoun. 

 

Carlos Rodon has a huge arm and a luminous future. We all know that. Anyone who has ever seen him throw knows that. Through 16.1 big league innings in 2015 he looks little like that guy. 

 

Rodon has 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. That’s great.

Rodon has 14 walks in 16.1 innings. That’s awful. 

In his two starts he’s worked 10 innings with 13 strikeouts. That’s great.

In two starts he’s walked 10 batters and allowed seven runs. That’s not good.

He’s also thrown 204 pitches to complete 10 innings. That’s not good.

 

Rodon simply isn’t a finished product at the moment. Not close. There’s worries about his ability to last more than 160 or so innings this season, and his recent control woes paint a picture of a guy who is way more about stuff and the future than he is about dominating in the fantasy game in 2015.

 

Check out these tweets from Marc Carig from NY Newsday.
 

Alderson said he saw growth in Syndergaard from first start to second. Raved about composure.

Alderson stayed away from committing to anything re: Syndergaard once Gee is ready to come back.

 

What that means is that when Dillon Gee is ready to rock, it’s not inconceivable that he could return to the rotation and Noah Syndergaard could be sent back to the minors. It’s possible. Just another reminder that not all future superstars have a smooth path to immediate big league success.