DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach).
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
FIP vs ERA
It’s early, for like the 919th time this season I’m making that statement. But that doesn’t mean we can’t still learn things. One of the easiest ways we can learn something about hurlers is by looking not at their ERA but their FIP. A quick review of FIP:
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), reads like ERA, helps you to gain a handle on how a pitcher performed irrespective of his fielders. It helps to paint a better picture of how a hurler actually performed than does ERA by focusing more on the events that are in the pitchers control. This analysis is taken to the next level with xFIP where the pitchers personal home run rate is replaced with the league average mark.
NOTE: For more on sabermetric measures see our Stats City PDF.
So FIP is more accurate at recording the performance of hurlers than raw ERA is. To that end, let’s compare some hurlers with large variances between the two numbers. The following pitchers have hurled the pelota better than their ERA would suggest.
Name | ERA | FIP | Difference |
6.03 | 2.95 | 3.08 | |
4.71 | 2.35 | 2.36 | |
4.73 | 2.74 | 1.99 | |
5.56 | 3.70 | 1.86 | |
5.60 | 3.92 | 1.68 | |
4.62 | 2.96 | 1.66 | |
4.32 | 3.23 | 1.09 |
I don’t like Buchholz. Never have. Too up and down.
Lester should slowly rebound, but not back to last year’s levels.
Strasburg’s shoulder is a short-term worry.
Green has been great 3x, awful 3x in six outings. Overall, solid.
Latos rounding into form with health.
Kluber started slowly last year too.
Wood, as I said yesterday, isn’t one to give up on.
The pitchers in the next table have an ERA that they really haven’t earned. Obviously, if they keep pitching in the manner they have to this point an uptick in ERA is likely.
Name | ERA | FIP | Difference |
0.84 | 3.43 | 2.58 | |
2.63 | 4.76 | 2.13 | |
0.80 | 2.65 | 1.85 | |
1.93 | 3.63 | 1.71 | |
3.82 | 5.42 | 1.60 | |
1.62 | 3.20 | 1.58 | |
1.95 | 3.30 | 1.35 |
Martinez is smoke and mirrors. Sell high.
Pelfrey… see Martinez.
Keuchel – my thoughts are in the Big 3 Video from May 5th.
I’ve noted previously my concerns with Wacha’s less than five K per nine mark.
Teheran finally showed something last outing.
Kazmir’s ERA is literally half of what it should be.
Liriano has had two seasons, in nine years, with an ERA under 3.30.
I watched Step Brothers the other night. I know it’s not considered the best movies of all-time or anything, but there are some flipping killer lines in it (parental guidance suggested).
I’M GOOD – NO MATTER WHAT YOU THOUGHT
Freddie Freeman was supposed to struggle this year cause his team was gonna stink, right? Not so much. Freeman is batting .301 with a .363 OBP and .534 SLG. That leaves him with a .897 OPS, above the .834 mark he owns for his career. He’s also on pace for 30 homers, 80 RBIs and nearly 120 runs scored. Good players produce. Period.
I’M LOSING PLAYING TIME
Michael Morse is sitting for a third straight day Wednesday against the Nationals. Morse has no one to blame but himself. In 23 games this season he’s hit two homers, driven in eight runs, scored just four times and posted a .537 OPS. Way too early to simply bail on the guy, but at the same time he’s struggling so badly that the Marlins are being forced to give Justin Bour some work. The lefty swinger has responded with eight hits in his last 15 at-bats. At some point production trumps experience and salary. Don’t think we are near there yet with Bour but it has to be noted that through 88 big league at-bats he’s hit .318 with 14 RBIs. Perhaps a platoon at first is in the cards for the Marlins, at least in the short-term?
I’M TOTALLY FINE
Jordan Zimmermann has had a disappointing start to his season with a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through six starts. Reality check. It’s still EARLY. We’re talking 34.2 innings over six starts. Let’s do something fun. Let’s remove Jordan’s game from April 13th from the ledger. If we do that here are his numbers over the other five starts: 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Is there really something wrong with Zimmermann? Hell no there ain’t. Should you be buying low? Hell yes you should. The only concern I have is the drop in his strikeout rate (a mere 5.71 per nine), but I would expect that number to tick upwards as the season wears on. Really folks, he’s going to be fine.
I MAY NOT BE FINE
Drew Hutchison has a 7.47 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through six starts. Ugh. His K/9 rate has fallen from 8.97 to 6.61 (from last year to this). His walk rate is up half a batter to 3.45 per nine. He’s allowed 1.44 homers per nine. That’s all scary stuff. Still, and I’m trying to be positive which ain’t easy for me… the groundball rate is up a bit. The BABIP of .324 isn’t crazy high. His hard hit ball percentage is 28 percent compared to 31 percent for his career. Hold in an AL-only, bench in mixed leagues. You could drop him in mixed leagues, he’s currently on that cusp, but as always it depends on who you can turn to.
DON’T REALLY CARE
Justin Verlander had a third MRI and the results were positive. He can resume throwing as his triceps appears to finally be fine. Very strange if you ask me. A 
guy shouldn’t be missing three months with a strained muscle, but hey, that’s just me. Regardless, he’s been nothing but league average the past two seasons. Here are his numbers over 66 starts.
28-24, 3.99 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.97 K/9, 2.69 K/BB
He’s not the Verlander you remember.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).