In the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide - which is still available by the way - I did a write up about Tommy John surgery. I explained what the procedure was. I discussed how many pitchers have it (an all-time record 92 professional players had the surgery in 2014). I wrote about the recovery process that a player undergoes. I also laid out a list of players coming back from the injury including guys like Matt Harvey, Daniel Hudson, Jason Motte, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Wieters, Jose Fernandez, A.J. Griffin, Ivan Nova, Josh Johnson, Matt Moore, Bobby Parnell, Miguel Sano and Patrick Corbin (there are others of course). After talking about all of that, I broke down the performance of hurlers in their first year back from the surgery. Let's just say the list wasn't overflowing with first year success. I already knew to be wary, but it seems like most folks in the fantasy universe continued to be rather unfazed by that information.

I was surfing the net recently, and I came across an excellent an eye opening article on Tommy John surgery. Normally I don't like to suggest that you, my loyal readers, check out other websites, but in this case I'm totally willing to make an exception. I can't remember the last time I said this, but Tommy John Surgery Success Rates in the Majors by Jon Roegele is a must read, and I don't say that lightly. Here are some highlights of the piece... and everyone counting on Harvey, Fernandez, Moore or any of the guys coming back from the surgery needs to pay close attention to what follows.

(1) There have been three official studies conducted about the "success rate" of the procedure. Those three studies showed rates of 83 percent, 80 percent and 79 percent. Jon's own research comes out at 79 percent. What all that means is that there is about an 80 percent chance that a pitcher that has Tommy John surgery is considered a "success." It also means that 20 percent of pitchers who have the procedure never again throw a pitch in the big leagues

(2) What does that "success" actually refer to? For the purpose of the studies "success" is reached when a pitcher appears in a single big league game after the procedure. That's a pretty low bar is it not?

(3) This is a direct quote from the piece by Jon. "...it is apparent that overall more pitchers returned to pitch at the major league level for longer periods of time when they had their surgery last century than in the 2000s." Jon makes that determination by showing that that median number of appearances by a hurler who had the procedure from 1974-99 was 89 while the number for those that had the surgery from 2000-09 is about 60. Read that again. Pitchers coming back from the surgery, according to the median number, are appearing in fewer games than they did 25 years ago. Median by the way means there are an equal number of pitchers above and below that mark for the time frame being discussed. 

(4) Another quote. "In the most recent complete decade (2000-2009), the median result for a major league pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery is appearing in about 60 games or logging about 100 innings pitched over the rest of his major league career." That's not 100 innings in their first season, that's 100 innings for the rest of their careers. That number might be a wee bit skewed by older guys having the procedure who just are never able to make it back, but still, is it not an eye opening number? 

So know this. 

I don't hate Matt Harvey. I'm just trying to pump the brakes on the prevalent presumption that a guy has Tommy John surgery and not only is he fine, but that he can return to pitch at all-star levels with absolutely no level of concern. The facts don't support that position, not even close. In truth, the data is pretty scary if you take off your fanboy hat long enough to truly consider what they have to say. Be extremely cautious with hurlers coming back from Tommy John surgery. It's simply the prudent position to take.


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