I've previously written about why I don't believe in using a top-300 or whatever list. I've also written about why it's so important to understand/use the tiering model at a draft. In the current piece I will give some thoughts about how I see people improperly drafting, how I see them asking the question incorrectly, and how I think some people are missing the boat completely when it comes to handling the draft.

THE QUESTION

I get some variant of this question probably 10-15 times a day.

"What round do I draft Mookie Betts (or any player) in my 12 team mixed league?"

THE WRONG ANSWER

Draft Betts in the 10-11 round. 

That's not the wrong answer because I think it should be lower... it's the wrong answer because it's not looking at the question closely enough. It's a lazy answer.

THE RIGHT ANSWER

Let me explain how this question should be answered.

Nothing is done in a vacuum. 
How the draft is unfolding is paramount.

If you want a rough guess when to take a guy, just check out Howard Bender's Mock Draft Army data (131.4 on Betts by the way). There it is if you just want a number. It's not enough though. Here's why.

You HAVE to take into account how the draft is going and how your team is constructed. Let's look at both those statements.

(1) How is the draft progressing?

Betts is an outfielder - and no, he shouldn't qualify at second base in 2015 (you need to appear in 20 games at a position and he was at second only 14 times last season). So for the sake of this discussion Betts will only be an outfielder (don't get hung up on this OF/2B thing and if he qualifies there in your setup, it's irrelevant for our current discussion). Let's say you personally have Betts ranked as the 24th best outfielder. If 20 of the 23 guys ahead of him are off the board entering the 10th round then it would be appropriate to draft Betts. But what if only 17 of the 23 are drafted? Might you wait another round or two? Certainly could do that, couldn't you? It's not about a players ADP. It's about how he fits in at the position he plays. There's really no need to jump a guys ADP by two rounds if only 80 percent of the players listed before your target player have been rostered. 

USE THE TIERING MODEL. Simply, you group like players at a position in the tiering model. Let's say Betts is on your 4th outfielder tier. Let's say there are 10 guys on that tier. Theoretically, if you can get any one of the 4th tier outfielders as your 3rd outfielder you should be very happy. Does it have to be Betts? Couldn't it be Adam Eaton? In the tiering model you target a player from a tier as much as you target a certain player. Additionally, the tiering model lets you know when it is that you have to jump in to the mix. Maybe you want your last outfielder to be from tier 4 because you look at tier 5 and it just makes you nervous as all get out. Let's say Betts is the last guy on tier 4 still available. It might be appropriate to draft him even if it was the 8th round no matter what the ADP says in this scenario. You have to play your draft. As I say all the time...

Drafting is an art. It's not a science.

(2) How is your team constructed?

Let's say the following players are your first nine selections.

1 Andrew McCutchen, OF
2 Adrian Beltre, 3B
3 Starling Marte, OF
4 Johnny Cueto, SP
5 Billy Hamilton, OF
6 Craig Kimbrel, RP
7 Carlos Santana, 1B
8 Dustin Pedroia, 2B
9 Yan Gomes, C

So you want to take Betts in Round 10. Should you? 

ADP might say it's OK to do.
The tiering model might suggest it's OK to do.
But does your team dictate taking Betts?

Of your first nine picks three are outfielders. You certainly don't have to take a 4th outfielder in your first 10 picks. You don't have a shortstop and only one starting pitcher, so it would likely be wiser to go in another direction versus taking another outfielder, at least in many instances it would be. Now ask yourself, do you have speed on your team? Through nine round you have two Pirates' outfielders that will likely steal at least 50 bags combined. Then you have Hamilton who could swipe that many all by his lonesome. Do you need Betts speed in Round 10? No you don't. What about power? Marte/Hamilton would be lucky to hit 20 homers combined, and Pedroia is no power monster either meaning if you are going to target a hitter you might be better served to go with a power bat, not a speedster. 

If your team looked like the above squad taking Betts in the 10th round would be a poor choice. 

CONCLUSION

Asking - what round do I take a guy completely misses the point, and it's also completely the wrong way to ask the question. The context matters. In fact, it's the only thing that matters. Don't let the hype get to you with any player. Play your draft, realize that all drafts are different, and make the right choice based upon how your team is constructed as well as how the overall draft is playing out.


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