Sometimes in fantasy sports we formulate our opinion on players based on supposition, hearsay or general seat of our pants evaluations. That's not always the correct way to asses a situation though. Ray Flowers digs into the data, pulls out the numbers that matter, and points you in some interesting directions each week as he shares with you the wonderful world of numbers as they pertain to fantasy football.
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THROWERS
Blake Bortles has thrown five touchdown passes over his last six games. #JustSaying
Jay Cutler was terrible in the Bears Week 10 drubbing, and the statistical proof is easy enough to find. On 26 drop backbacks where he had no pressure he completed only 15 passes for 158 yards an an interception. Still, look at the totality of his work. (1) His 92.8 QB Rating would be a career best. (2) His 66.4 completion percentage would be a career best. (3) His 262.8 yardage per game mark would be the second best of his nine year career. He's never thrown more than 27 scores. His current pace is for 32. That bad, really? By the way, Peyton Manning has 29 passing scores through nine games.
Andy Dalton tossed three picks in Week 10. Aaron Rodgers has thrown three interceptions in nine games. So has Tom Brady - three in nine.
Austin Davis is terrible. There I said it. On the year he's lost two fumbles that have been returned for scores. That's terrible. He's also thrown, get this, four pick-sixes. FOUR. That's vomit inducing.
Joe Flacco threw for five scores on October 12th. In four games since he's thrown five touchdowns.
Brian Hoyer has 10 touchdown passes. That's the same number as Kirk Cousins.
Zach Mettenberger. Blah. So far he's tossed three interceptions and completed just 12 of 30 passes that have traveled more than 10-yards in the air. Despite a vaunted arm the results have been scattershot, like his accuracy.
Cam Newton was terrible in Week 10 on MNF. In the SiriusXM Experts League he was still the 10th best QB in Week 10. Did you realize the guy threw for 306 yards and two scores?
Kyle Orton was terribly unproductive in Week 10 when he was under pressure. On the 13 dropbacks with guys in his face he completed three of eleven passes for 34 yards. He was also just 3-for-11 for 55 yards (and a score) on passes of more than 10-yards. He was off most of the afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL by throwing for a score on nine percent of his 277 passes (25 TDs). That TD rate is literally double that of Colin Kaepernick (4.5 thanks to 13 scores in 289 passes).
Ben Roethlisberger cleared 340-yards thanks to some garbage time yardage but he only tossed one score against a Jets defense that many thought he would throttle like he had the previous two weeks. Still, can you really be down on Big Ben? I know people are, but they shouldn't be. He completed all eight of his passes when under pressure for 115 yards and a score, and he also connected on 31 of the 41 targeted passes he threw.
Russell Wilson is threw for an averaged of 3,238 yards, 26 scores and 10 interceptions the last two seasons. This year he is on pace to thrown for 3,274 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. If not for his running...
RUNNERS
12: The PPR ranking, amongst runners, of Theo Riddick the past five weeks in terms of points per contest. Hard to notice it for two reasons. First, he didn't play in Week 7. Second, he had a bye in Week 9.
24: The number of extra yards that Matt Forte (616) and LeSean McCoy (641) have run for when compared to league leader DeMarco Murray (1,233). How shocking is that?
91: That is the yardage total of Marshawn Lynch in Week 10 --- after contact. He looked like The Hulk smashing aliens from outer space. Lynch simply ran over and through, why mess around with trying to dodge the opponent when you put your foot in their chest and stomp them in to submission. On the day he carried the ball 21 times for 144 yards and four scores. He's now the #4 runner in fantasy football in PPR setups. So much for him being washed up.
C.J. Anderson had the best game of his career in Week 10 as he ran the ball 13 times for 90 yards and caught four passes for 73 yards and a score. The touchdown run was a thing of beauty as well. Might be a bit disheartening to learn that only 33 of the 90 yards he produced on the ground came after contact.
Travaris Cadet has appeared in nine games. He has 26 receptions. Pierre Thomas has 26 receptions in six games.
Andre Ellington is on pace for 1,035 rushing yards and 590 as a receiver. He's also trending to 66 receptions. Too bad he's "only" scored five times, though the guy is still having a tremendous season.
Justin Forsett is averaging 72.1 yards a game on the ground. That's more than LeSean McCoy (71.2), Matt Forte (68.4) and Jamaal Charles (66.6). Through 83 career games Forsett's average per game is 29.1 yards. The last time he even reached that career mark for a season was back in 2010.
Eddie Lacy has caught at least three passes in 4-straight games for the Packers. He's also produced a touchdown or 100-yards from scrimmage in five of his last six games. In a traditional PPR setup he's up to 10th overall in fantasy points.
Alfred Morris has had a moderately successful season. Perhaps there is hope of a strong finish now that Robert Griffin III is back under center. In 31 starts with Morris and RGIII in the same backfield Morris has run for 4.86 YPC with an average of 0.68 scores a game. When it's been Colt McCoy or Kirk Cousins under center we're looking at 3.69 YPC and 0.50 TDs a game for Morris.
The Raiders are averaging 62.1 yards a game rushing... as a team. There are 13 individual runners who are averaging more yards a week on the ground then the entire Raiders team. Meanwhile, the Seahawks lead the way at 170.9 a contest.
Trent Richardson has more rushing yards than Ronnie Hillman (391 to 378).
Antone Smith is leading runners with an average of 19.2 yards after the catch, an astounding total for a runner (12 receptions, 219 yards). Matt Forte leads all runners with 61 receptions and his YAC mark is 8.5
RECEIVERS
4: That's the number of passes that Anquan Boldin dropped in Week 10. He had never dropped more than two passes in a game at any point in his career and that Week 10 effort was just the 5th time since 2007 that he dropped more than one pass in a contest. He still caught six passes for 95 yards and a score. Think he's the only pass catcher that Colin Kaepernick trusts? Boldin saw 15 targets. Fifteen, despite his struggles.
13.2: That's the difference in passing yards a game between Matt Ryan (280.6) and Aaron Rodgers (267.4). Ryan is also throwing for 14.8 yards more a game than Tom Brady (265.8).
Dwayne Allen has seven scores on 26 receptions. If Jimmy Graham scored touchdowns at that same rate his current total of 56 receptions would have resulted in 15 touchdowns.
Antonio Brown was a disappointment in Week 10 with two fumbles. I get it. But people calling him a "bust" of the week - are you bonkers? Brown caught eight passes for 74 yards. Do that for 16 games and you end up with 128 receptions and 1,184 yards. Yeah, that would be a terrible season. #Whatever
Julian Edelman had 105 receptions and 1,056 yards last season. This year he's on pace for 96 receptions and 989 yards.
Rookie Mike Evans has 22 more yards, and four more scores, than HOF bound Andre Johnson (585 and five for Evans).
Larry Fitzgerald stinks, right? He's averaged just 0.2 yards less per game than Alshon Jeffrey. He's also scored just one fewer time (three to two).
Antonio Gates has nine scores in 55 targets. Larry Donnell has 55 targets and five scores. Greg Olsen has seen 73 targets leading to his five scores.
Justin Hunter has oodles of talent. Since he replaced Nate Washington in base sets he's also been all over the field appearing in 94 percent of the plays the last four games. The result has to be some impressive levels of production, right? Uh, no. Hunter has averaged two receptions, 33 yards and has scored one time. How is that possible? He's waiver-wire fodder in many a setup.
DeSean Jackson is the only wideout in football with more than 600 receiving yards who has less than 40-receptions. He's caught 36 passes for 784 yards.
Travis Kelce was on the field for 66 percent of the Chiefs snaps in Week 10. He saw two targets. The inability of Alex Smith and Andy Reid to get the ball in the hands of their most dynamic pass catcher other than Jamaal Charles is vexing (Kelce leads all tight ends with an 8.4 YAC mark). Kelce has seen 44 targets. That's four less than Jermaine Gresham for goodness sakes.
Jordy Nelson in two games against the Bears: 16 receptions, 260 yards and four scores.
Julius Thomas has 12 touchdowns. Combine the following tight ends and you end up with 12 touchdowns: Jared Cook, Heath Miller, Jason Witten, Travis Kelce and Charles Clay.
Steve Smith sucks. I told you he would. You didn't list. Now you're frustrated and wanting to deal him, but can't because no one will give you anything. Sound about right? Smith hasn't scored in four games and he has only one touchdown in six games. He hasn't hit 70-yards in his last four games. He hasn't hit 40-yards in his last three games. He's caught three passes, exactly, in three of his last four games. I tried to warn you. Meanwhile, Torrey Smith has scored in 2-straight games and has five touchdowns in his last five games. He's also been over 50-yards in four of the last five games. Hey, it's the Ravens. That's good.
Listen to Ray Flowers' show Monday through Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear him Sunday nights, 7-10 PM EDT.